Monday, July 4, 2011

We are now just past the midpoint of the 2011 season so it's a good time to grade the key members of the Red Sox. Please note that these grades are adjusted to some degree for expectations. For example, Adrian Gonzalez needs to do more for an "A" than Jarrod Saltalamacchia would. Here is the breakdown, by grade.

A

Adrian Gonzalez -- Gonzalez has been everything the Red Sox hoped for, and more. He's leading the American League in batting average, hits, RBIs and doubles. He's second in slugging percentage and third in on base percentage. He's on pace for .350, 31 HR, 144 RBI, 115 runs and 53 doubles. All this despite a somewhat slow start. The Red Sox knew that Adrian would hit homers and drive in lots of runs but nobody expected a .350 batting average (he was .284 career hitter through 2010). He's also been as solid defensively as advertised.

Josh Beckett -- Beckett was a huge question mark after an awful injury-riddled 2010. His ERA ballooned to 5.78 last season (151 hits in 127 innings). What a difference a year makes. Beckett's 2.12 ERA is second only to Jared Weaver in the American League. He's only won seven games but that is due to lack of run support (five times he's given up two runs or less and not picked up the win). With Beckett back to his old form, the Red Sox now have two aces in the rotation.

Jacoby Ellsbury -- Ellsbury is having a spectacular season. Like Beckett, Jacoby's 2010 was ruined by injuries. He's an All Star for the first time this season and for good reason. He's batting .302 and is on pace for 18 HR, 78 RBI, 111 runs, 51 stolen bases and 45 doubles. Ellsbury could become the third player to have at least 50 doubles and 50 steals in the same season (Tris Speaker and Craig Biggio are the others). Biggio is the only player to have 50+ doubles, 50+ steals and 20+ homers. Ellsbury has an outside shot at that as well.

David Ortiz -- Big Papi posted decent power numbers the past two seasons (average of 30 HR, 100 RBIs) but his batting average the past two years was only .238 and .270. This season, Ortiz, who batted .300 or better in three of four years between 2004 and 2007, is up to .301 with a .382 on base percentage. He's once again on pace for about a 30 HR/100 RBI season. The big news, however, is that Big Papi is having great at bats and putting the ball in play. Ortiz whiffed 145 times last season (about 24% of the time). This season, he's striking out about 11% of the time.

Jon Lester -- Lester hasn't been quite as good as he was last season, but his numbers clearly qualify him for an "A" in the first half of the season. He's 10-4 with 3.43 ERA. He's struck out nearly a batter an inning (105/110). On the down side, Lester has given up 14 homers already (he gave up 14 HRs total in 2010).

B

Kevin Youkilis -- Youk is having a rough time physically this season. He's been limping around more often than not over the past two months. Still, he's having a pretty solid season -- on pace for 21 HR, 111 RBIs, 41 doubles. He fails to qualify for an "A" because his 2011 batting average is more than 20 points lower than his career average. His health is surely having a negative impact.

Dustin Pedroia -- As usual, Dustin has had his peaks and valleys. He batted .400 in the first nine games and may have saved the Red Sox from an even worse start (he was 9 for 13 against the Yankees in the second weekend of the season). He went into a prolonged slump following that Yankee series (.209 in his next 47 games) then caught fire again (.374 with 14 extra base hits, 19 RBIs and 18 runs in his last 24 games). Like Youkilis, Pedroia's batting average is way down but his on base percentage is the highest it has even been and he's already closing in on a career high for stolen bases despite coming back from a foot injury. I think we'll see plenty of lasers in the second half.

Daniel Bard -- Bard has had his ups and downs as well. He was 1-4 with 3.65 ERA and a pair of blown saves through May 23rd. Since then he's made 14 appearances (15 1/3 IP) without giving up a run. He's allowed just eight baserunners during that time. His lack of success earlier in the season may have been the result of being overworked. He made 30 appearances in the Sox first 60 games. Since then, Francona has rested Bard as much as possible.

Jonathan Papelbon -- Papelbon has been a nice surprise in 2011. Last season, he blew eight save chances (as many as 2008 and 2009 combined) and lost seven decisions while posting a 3.90 ERA. This season, he has converted 17 of 18 save chances and is 2-0. His strikeouts per nine innings stands at 12.1 (he's been between 10.0 and 10.2 the past three seasons). His 3.58 ERA is not impressive but 9 of the 13 earned runs he's given up have been in non-save situations.

Clay Buchholz -- Buchholz has pitched fairly well this season despite battling injuries. He's now on the DL with back issues. I'm happy that the Red Sox have shut him down and I'm confident that the 26-year-old won't pitch again until he's 100% healthy. Buch was 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA before heading to the DL. Like Lester, he was giving up a lot of homers (10 in 82 innings pitched). Buchholz's health may be the key for the Sox in 2011. I don't see anyone other than maybe the Phillies beating Boston in the playoffs if Lester, Beckett and Buchholz are all healthy heading into the postseason.

Matt Albers -- Albers has pitched better than expected. His 2.97 ERA is two runs per game lower than his career average. More importantly, he's pitching better as the season moves along. His ERA is 1.80 since June 1st.

C

The Catchers -- Saltalamaccia and Varitek certainly deserved an "F" for their early season performance but both catchers have come around over the past five or six weeks. Salty is batting .316 since June 1st to get him up to .251. The Red Sox would certainly like to see more power (he has 5 HR) from the big switch hitter. Tek started to heat up on May 31st with a three-hit day. Since that date, he's batting .326 with four homers. Red Sox catchers have just one error this season, a major league best. On the down side, Salty and Tek have thrown out only 22.2% of potential base-stealers (only four stolen bases with Wakefield on the mound so the knuckleball is not the reason for the high stolen base rate).

Alfredo Aceves -- Aceves' 3.75 ERA puts him squarely in the "C" category. He's had some very good performances, including a couple as a starter, and some bad ones. His main role is as a reliever where his ERA is a decent 2.76.

Tim Wakefield -- Wake's 4.73 ERA in nine relief appearances leaves something to be desired. He's an equally mediocre 4-3 with an ERA of 4.84 in ten starts.

D

The Shortstops -- Jed Lowrie got off to a great start offensively but it didn't last. Scutaro has also been subpar while battling injuries. Sox shortstops are batting .269 (.322 OBP) with 6 HR and 39 RBI. Those numbers might be okay if they were playing great defense but they have been terrible in the field. The Red Sox are 11th in the American League in shortstop fielding percentage (14 errors). What's worse is that Lowrie and Scutaro don't get to a lot of balls in the first place. Shortstop is the most glaring Red Sox weakness right now.

J.D. Drew -- Drew doesn't have many fans in Boston. Despite what Theo Epstein claims, Drew has not been worth the $70 million the Red Sox will pay him for five years of service. Still, Drew was an above average player between 2007 and 2010. He averaged 19 HR, 66 RBI and 79 runs with an on base percentage of .375. This season, Drew has been absolutely horrible at the plate. He's batting just .231 with four homers. Josh Reddick's performance has been a pleasant surprise but if he tails off and Drew doesn't pick up his game, the Red Sox will need to upgrade before the trade deadline. Drew gets a "D" and not an "F" because he continues to play solid defense.

Carl Crawford -- Needless to say, Crawford has been a huge disappointment thus far. The Red Sox signed him for $20 million per season to bat .300, steal 50 bases, score 100 runs and hit 15-20 homers. He went to the disabled list with a .243 average, eight stolen bases, 33 runs and six homers. I'm hoping that Crawford's trip to the DL will allow him to push the proverbial "reset" button. His return to the lineup could provide him with the fresh start he needs.

F

John Lackey -- Lackey has been better since returning from the disabled list but there is no getting around his 5-7 record and 6.81 ERA. That's an incredible number for a guy getting more than $16 million per year. I think every Red Sox fan was puzzled when the Sox signed Lackey. Will he ever be worth $16 million per year? Almost certainly not. Can he be an adequate fourth starter behind Lester, Beckett and Buchholz? I think he can, but only if he gets himself together mentally.

Bobby Jenks -- If I could hand out a grade worse than "F" to Bobby Jenks, I would. In 14 2/3 innings this season, Jenks has given up 34 baserunners! That's closing in on one baserunner for every out. It's actually amazing that his ERA is only 6.75. Jenks has been getting progressively worse since 2008.

Dan Wheeler -- 3.12, 3.28, 3.35 -- those were Dan Wheeler's ERA numbers in his final three seasons at Tampa Bay. Clearly, his eye-popping 5.92 ERA with the Red Sox in 2011 is immensely disappointing. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is 1.36 after being below 1.00 during the 2008-2010 stretch. Wheeler has not been the reliable 7th inning guy the Sox expected.

Incomplete

Josh Reddick -- Nice start, but it's too early to judge.

Rich Hill -- No earned runs in eight innings prior to his injury.

Andrew Miller -- You can't argue with 2-0, 3.06 ERA in three starts.

Michael Bowden -- Good start, good prospect.

Darnell McDonald -- I'm being generous giving him an Incomplete and not an F.

Mike Cameron -- The Cameron signing was a horrible decision and a waste of good money.

Tito and Theo

It's always tough to grade the manager and GM at midseason. The team has been a little disappointing but I don't think Francona is the reason for that. The Sox are in great position to grab the top spot in the AL despite all of the injuries. Tito will be judged in October, not July.

Theo Epstein has made some very bad moves (Lackey, Jenks, Cameron) and some great moves (Gonzalez, not trading Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz, keeping Ortiz around). Getting Wheeler was probably a smart move that just isn't working out. The jury is still out on Crawford and Saltalamaccia. The Red Sox are now in business to win championships. Theo will be judged accordingly.