April 30, 2005

The Red Sox concluded a very unchampionlike April with a 9-2 win over the Rangers in Arlington. Bronson Arroyo improved his record to 3-0 while Damon, Nixon and Varitek homered. The win gave the Sox a 12-11 April record. Here's the good news and the bad news as we enter May.

The Good News:

• Bronson Arroyo -- Arroyo was 3-0 in April and really should have been 4-0 (he left after seven with a 3-1 lead in the April 19th game vs Toronto). His ERA is 3.69 and he has walked only seven batters. The Sox are 12-1 the last 13 times that Arroyo has taken the mound in the regular season.



• Tim Wakefield -- Wakefield had been excellent before being shelled on Friday night. Even with Friday's loss, Wakefield's April numbers were solid (2-1, 2.78 ERA). The Sox #4 and #5 starters are a combined 5-1.



• Johnny Damon and Jason Varitek -- Unlike 2003 and 2004, Damon is off to a quick start in 2005. The Sox centerfielder batted .356 in April with 17 runs and 16 RBIs. His on base percentage is a healthy .394 as we enter May. Varitek, a career .272 hitter, batted .329 in April with 6 homers and 11 RBIs.



• The Yankees -- The Red Sox cannot be happy with a 12-11 April record but they should be very happy to start May three games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column. The Yankees are 10-14 and really haven't even been as good as that record would indicate. The Yanks are 3-1 in one run games.

The Bad News:

• The Injuries -- The pitching staff is in touch shape with David Wells out for a month or more and Curt Schilling out for at least a couple of weeks. The good news is that Wade Miller is very close to making his first Red Sox start. John Halama will take the other open spot in the rotation.



• Mark Bellhorn -- Bellhorn was a very pleasant surprise last season but he's off to a tough start in 2005. Bellhorn is batting only .229 with no homers and 6 RBIs. Even worse is the fact that Bellhorn has whiffed 28 times already. At this rate, he will strikeout 197 times this season (he fanned 177 times last year).



• Keith Foulke -- Foulke had an 0.60 ERA last April, but this April was a disaster for the Red Sox closer. Foulke was 1-3 with a blown save and a 6.55 ERA in the first month of the season.



• Close Game Losses -- The Sox are 2-5 in one run games (10-6 otherwise). This really needs to change. On the plus side, the Sox have not gone down easy. Four times they have rallied from a one or two run deficit in their last at bat. Unfortunately, they lost three of those games.

Red Sox Player of the Month - April

No single player really jumped out as an obvious Player of the Month for April. The top candidates were Damon, Varitek, Ramirez, Arroyo and Wakefield. I decided to give my Player of the Month award to Jason Varitek. The newly-minted Captain is off to a great start offensively. Obviously, the new contract and promotion to Captain hasn't gone to his head. Manny's numbers (.274, 7 HR, 25 RBI) were more impressive but his production came in bunches (5 of his homers and 16 of his RBI came in just three games over the course of the month).

April 27, 2005

Wednesday's rain in Boston shortened the Sox-Orioles series to just two games. This may have been a blessing for the Sox who lost to the O's on Monday and Tuesday by a combined score of 19-12. The hard-hitting Orioles banged out 33 hits in the two games. Johnny Damon was 5 for 8 in the series and reached base seven times in the series. Damon is now batting .360. Manny Ramirez had three hits and drove in five runs in Tuesday's game. Unfortunately, Keith Foulke blew his first save of the year. The Sox closer now has a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 7.20. Matt Clement gave up 7 earned runs and 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings in Tuesday's game.

The injuries are piling up on the Sox. The team announced that Curt Schilling will miss at least two weeks with a bone bruise on his right ankle. Yes, that's the same ankle that was surgically repaired in the offseason. David Wells will be sidelined for four to six weeks with a sprained right foot. John Halama will start for the Red Sox on Monday in Detroit. Tuesday's starter remains a mystery. Wade Miller is not quite ready for Major League action so it won't be him.

April 25, 2005

The Orioles extended their lead in the AL East to two games on Monday thanks to an 8-4 victory over the Sox at Fenway. The Orioles had 13 hits including a B.J. Surhoff homerun. For Boston, David Ortiz and Johnny Damon had three hits and Jason Varitek had two (a double and a homer). David Wells (3.2 IP, 8 hits, 6 ER) left the game in the fourth inning with a foot injury. Matt Mantei left the game in the seventh with an ankle injury. Needless to say, it was a terrible night for the Sox. Matt Clement and Rodrigo Lopez will duel on Tuesday.

April 24, 2005

Despite outscoring the opposition 44-25 over the past seven days, the Red Sox finished the week with a 4-3 record thanks to three one run losses. The Sox took one of two from Toronto at Fenway earlier this week. The Sox blew a 3-1 lead heading into the eighth inning on Tuesday enabling the Blue Jays to split the short two game series. Manny Ramirez hit three homers and drove in six runs in the series. The Sox swept a short two game series in Baltimore on Wednesday and Thursday thanks to two shutouts (8-0 and 1-0). David Wells and Matt Clement each pitched eight scoreless innings during the series. Wells extended his scoreless innings streak to 15.

On Friday, the Sox rallied from a 4-1 eighth inning deficit (and a 4-2 ninth inning deficit) to tie the Devil Rays 4-4 in the top of the ninth. Unfortunately, Eduardo Perez took Alan Embree deep for the game-winning homer to lead off the bottom of the ninth. Friday marked the fourth time in five opportunities that the Sox have rallied to tie or take the lead when faced a one or two run deficit heading into their last at bat. They have lost in the bottom of the ninth on three of those four occasions. The Sox lost another tough game on Saturday, 6-5, then blasted the Rays 11-3 on Sunday in a game filled with hit batsmen, ejections and bench clearing brawls. Sunday's win left the Sox one game behind Baltimore in the AL East.

Player of the Week: Manny Ramirez (.364 avg, .500 OBP, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 8 runs).

April 17, 2005

The Red Sox pulled off their first sweep of the 2005 season by trouncing the Devil Rays at Fenway over the weekend by a combined score of 19-3. Matt Clement and David Wells each won for the first time in a Red Sox uniform. On Saturday, Manny Ramirez finally hit his first (and second) homerun of the season. Manny drove in all six Boston runs in the 6-2 win.

Milestones: Tim Wakefield passed Cy Young and moved into third place on the Red Sox all-time strikeout list behind Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Wakefield has now whiffed 1,343 batters while wearing the Sox uniform. He trails Pedro by 253 strikeouts. Roger Clemens, with 2,590 Red Sox strikeouts, is 994 ahead of Pedro. On Saturday, Manny Ramirez's 18th career grand slam moved him into a third place tie on Major League Baseball's all-time list. Lou Gehrig holds the record with 23.

Player of the Week: Tim Wakefield (2-0, 13 innings pitched, 1 ER, 9 hits).

April 14, 2005

The Sox beat the Yankees 8-5 on Thursday night to take the rubber game of their first home series of the season. Jay Payton, Edgar Renteria and Jason Varitek each homered against Randy Johnson. The trio knocked in all eight of the Boston runs. Johnson left the game after seven innings with the score tied 5-5. Tom Gordon followed in the bottom of the eighth and promptly gave up three runs. Keith Foulke struggled, but pitched two scoreless innings for his first win of the season. Bronson Arroyo gave up five runs in 5 2/3 innings and struggled with his control. The win enabled the Sox to even the season series with New York at three games apiece and match New York's 4-5 record to begin the season. At 7-3, the Blue Jays are the early leaders in the AL East.

It wouldn't be a Red Sox-Yankees series without some kind of incident. Tonight's incident occurred in the bottom of the eighth inning. As Gary Sheffield chased down Jason Varitek's triple in the rightfield corner, a fan swiped his hand along the wall and got a piece of Sheffield's face in the process. Sheffield grabbed the ball and then shoved the fan, even before throwing the ball back into the infield. It is unclear whether the fan was intentionally trying to whack Sheffield or simply imploring the fans next to him to not touch the ball, which was still in play. It appears that the fan was looking to his left and not in Sheffield's direction as he was moving his arm. Sheffield admitted that he didn't know if he was struck intentionally or not. Whether it was accidental or not didn't seem to matter to Sheffield at the time but to his credit he did not pull an "Artest." The fan was ejected for interfering with play but not arrested. The incident could have been worse if not for a quick response by a Fenway employee who jumped between Sheffield and the fan.

Another odd moment occurred in the second inning when a fan in the first base stands made a great catch on a sharply hit foul ball. The fan, as it turned out, was Doug Flutie. When interviewed by NESN's Eric Frede, Flutie claimed to have caught a foul ball the past four times he's been at Fenway. Hmmm, I wonder if Drew Brees would have made the catch?

Both Ron Jackson and Terry Francona were tossed out of the game for arguing balls and strikes. Red Sox pitchers simply couldn't get a break with home plate umpire Greg Gibson. A questionable ball four call on Gary Sheffield in the fourth led to four of the five New York runs. This led to Jackson's ejection. The umpiring wouldn't have been so upsetting if not for the fact that Randy Johnson was getting strike calls no matter where he threw the ball. Francona was ejected arguing a strike call on Bill Mueller.

After an 0 for 10 start to his Red Sox career, Edgar Renteria is 9 for 26 (.346) with a homer and seven RBIs. I wonder what all those idiot sports radio callers who wanted to run Renteria out of town after two games are saying now.

Jason Varitek's homerun on Thursday was the 100th of his career.

The Red Sox lost the middle game of the three game series, 5-2. Jaret Wright was in trouble most of the night, but the Red Sox could not produce with runners in scoring position. The Yankee bullpen shut down the Sox (4 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk) once Wright left the game. Mariano Rivera finally notched a save against the Sox after four consecutive failures. For the Sox, Curt Schilling was excellent for four innings, but gave up two runs in the fifth and three more in the sixth.

Terry Francona has a tendency to go too long with Curt Schilling and Wednesday was no exception. Schilling gave up only two runs through five innings but gave up three runs in the sixth. He threw 108 pitches which seemed like too many for a pitcher making his first start of the season and coming off of an injury. It is interesting to look at Schilling's performance by pitch count. In his first 75 pitches, opponents batted only .206 against Schilling last season. After 75 pitches, opponents batted .313 against Curt. This is a trend worth following this season.

April 11, 2005

The Red Sox celebrated Opening Day/World Series Ring Day with an 8-1 victory over the Hated Ones. Doug Mirabelli's second inning two-run homer turned out to be the only offense the Sox would need thanks to a great performance by Tim Wakefield. Wake gave up just one run (an unearned run) and five hits in seven innings of work. Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar also chipped in with two RBIs each.

The Red Sox received their World Series rings before the game as part of an extended Opening Day ceremony. The pre-game ceremony had many great moments including Johnny Pesky and Yaz raising the World Championship banner and Bill Russell, Bobby Orr, Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour throwing out the ceremonial first pitches. The most amusing moment came when Yankees closer Mariano Rivera (who has blown four consecutive save chances against the Sox) was cheered wildly by the crowd as he was introduced before the game. Even Rivera couldn't help but laugh. Most of the Yankees were lustily booed by the capacity (and then some) crowd.

April 10, 2005

For the third time in five games, the Red Sox came from behind in the top of the 9th inning against the opponent's closer. Unfortunately, for the second time they lost the game in the bottom of the 9th. On Sunday, the Blue Jays beat the Sox 4-3 on Orlando Hudson's one out double off of Mike Timlin. The Sox had tied the game in the top of the inning on a two-run single by Edgar Renteria. Matt Clement gave up three earned runs in six innings for a no-decision. On Friday night, Keith Foulke gave up two runs in the bottom of the 9th but the Sox held on for a 6-5 victory. Nixon and Varitek each homered. Bronson Arroyo gave up just two runs on three hits in six innings for his first win of the season. On Saturday, David Wells surrendered back to back to back homers and the bullpen fell apart in the 9th inning as the Jays won 12-5.

Fri 4/8 - Sox 6 Jays 5 - Box Score
Sat 4/9 - Jays 12 Sox 5 - Box Score
Sun 4/10 - Jays 4 Sox 3 - Box Score

I think most Red Sox fans would agree that the first week of the season was very disappointing. The Sox went 2-4 on the season's first road trip and lost twice in the bottom of the 9th inning. The good news is that three times the Sox trailed by a run or two going into the 9th inning and three times they came from behind to tie or take the lead against the opposition's closer. As was the case last season, the Sox do not know the meaning of the word "quit."

The good news for week one: Jason Varitek (.368, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Tim Wakefield (0-0, 2.70 ERA) and Bronson Arroyo (1-0, 3.00 ERA).

The bad news: Bill Mueller (.200), Trot Nixon (.188), Edgar Renteria (.167), David Wells (0-2, 8.44 ERA, 19 hits in 10 2/3 innings), the bullpen (8.10 ERA).

Player of the Week: David Ortiz (.435 avg, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs).

April 6, 2005

It is amazing how close the Red Sox came to losing Wednesday's game (and being swept by the Yankees to start the season). Boston had outhit New York 13 to 3 and had put 18 runners on base (as compared to New York's 8) when Manny Ramirez batted in the 9th, but if ARod has come up with the ground ball off of Manny's bat, the Sox probably would have lost, 3-2. This is exactly the type of game that Boston had been losing to New York for 86 years before Game 4 of last year's ALCS. Sox fans should never be happy losing two of three to the Yanks but in this case, I can't help but feel pretty good about the way things turned out. I feel this way mainly because the Red Sox are now firmly entrenched in the head of Mariano Rivera. Since 2001, Rivera has blown 12 of 31 save chances against the Red Sox (that's only a 61% conversion rate). He's converted more than 91% of his save chances against everyone else over that time. Yes, the ARod boot hurt him, but Rivera was awful. Also, let's not forget that Johnny Damon came within a few feet of beating him yesterday. I'm certainly not going to predict that Mariano is done. I'm sure he will have a solid year, but (a) the Sox have his number and (b) he's not the pitcher he once was.

It was great to see Edgar Renteria finally come through for the Sox in the 9th inning. In his first ten at bats this year, Renteria was 0 for 10 and had made 14 outs (four double plays). I guess you could say that his average was -.400 (that's negative .400) at that time. Yes, Renteria single-handedly cost the Sox the game on Tuesday, but it's hard to believe that so many fans are on his case already. A lot was made of the Sox signing Renteria and not Cabrera in the offseason, but in the end the money was not all that different (four years, $40 mil vs four years, $32 million). If Hanley Ramirez comes along the way the Sox hope he does, Boston will have the option of trading Ramirez (and others) for a top pitcher (Ben Sheets maybe?) or promoting Ramirez and trading Renteria. Renteria should be very marketable given his age and the position he plays. I am glad that the Sox started the season on the road because I know some Fenway fans would have been booing Renteria by the end of the second game.

Best wishes to Terry Francona for a speedy recovery. Hopefully, his health issues are not serious.

In each of the past two games, I have longed for Dave Roberts as the Red Sox were seeking the tying or go-ahead run. Roberts was such an important weapon for this team. What's worse is that they really don't have anyone with speed on the bench. I can't believe that the Sox couldn't do enough to make Roberts happy. You would think that he could play in place of Ramirez and Damon once every two weeks or so and in place of Nixon two or three times every two weeks.

Despite the two homers, Wakefield was probably the sharpest of any Red Sox or Yankees starter over the first three games. Johnson's performance on Sunday was a close second. I'd put Pavano third and Clement fourth. Wells and Mussina were both awful, but Mussina was able to pitch himself out of trouble thanks in large part to Edgar Renteria.

What's with the bullpen meltdowns the past three days? Rivera's problems have been the most heralded but Trevor Hoffman blew a two-run with two outs in the 9th inning on Monday in Colorado, Braden Looper blew a two-run 9th inning lead on Monday in Cincinnati and today Bob Wickman and the Indians blew a three-run 9th inning lead in Chicago. Okay, I guess it isn't that surprising that it's happening to the Mets and Indians.

Sun 4/3 - Yankees 9 Sox 2 - Box Score
Tue 4/5 - Yankees 4 Sox 3 - Box Score
Wed 4/6 - Sox 7 Yankees 3 - Box Score

April 4, 2005

The Red Sox streak of four straight against the Yankees ended on Sunday night. Boston scored the first and last runs of the game, but the Yankees scored nine in between on their way to a 9-2 rout over the World Champs in the Bronx. David Wells was anything but sharp in his Sox debut giving up four runs and ten hits in only 4 1/3 innings of work. Randy Johnson wasn't spectacular but was good enough to notch his first Yankee win. Jason Varitek was the lone bright spot for Boston. The new Captain went 3-for-4. Here are some game notes (in chronologial order).

• Randy Johnson comes out and retires the Red Sox in order in the first. Renteria and Ramirez strike out looking. About three pitches a foot off the plate are called strikes. I'm thinking that if Randy gets that call all night, the Sox might as well go back to the hotel now.



• It looks like the Sox are about to go ahead 2-0 on a Millar homer, but Hideki Matsui goes above the wall to snatch the ball before it hits the leftfield seats. Payton drives in the first run of the season, but Matsui's catch may have saved a big inning. That may have been THE chance to get to Johnson.



• I don't like the placement of Varitek's "C" (for Captain) on his jersey. It doesn't look right on the front of the jersey. This isn't hockey. The patch belongs on the arm.



• Jason Giambi comes up in the second inning and gets a standing ovation. It's no surprise that the Yankee fans are not bothered by the fact that Giambi is now a known cheater. It's a little surprising that they think he deserves an ovation for it.



• In the third, John Miller mentions that Alex Sanchez became the first player to be suspended for using steroids. Alex Sanchez? He of the four career homeruns. It kind of makes me wonder whether someone grabbed the wrong specimen. "Sanchez" is, after all, close to "Sheffield" in the alphabet.



• I flip to women's basketball during the commercial break. I'm thinking that it can't be worse than some of today's NBA games. The Indiana-Washington game was 29-29 at the half! I'm sure the women can top that.



• John Miller is annoying me by calling Ruben Sierra, "Ru Ben" Sierra.



• By the sixth inning, the Sox are looking so awful that I actually flip to women's basketball during the middle of the inning.



• The "Next Championship 2090" joke (that's 86 years from now) was funny the first time I heard it. It's not so funny the 338th time. People are parading around the stadium with the line as if they came up with it.



• Tino makes a diving stop in the 7th. A-Rod makes a diving stop in the 8th. This simply isn't the Red Sox night.



• Matt Mantei comes in and gives up three runs in two thirds of an inning. The important thing is that he is throwing in the high nineties.



• Halama "Buckners" a slow roller to the mound. Did I mention that this just isn't the Red Sox night?



• Boston scratches for a run in the 9th. The pain is finally over. The nice thing about baseball is that one loss in April is of rather miniscule importance. It will be Pavano and Clement on Tuesday.

2. Red Sox -- The Sox enter 2005 with some concerns: (1) When will Schilling be back and when he returns, will he be anything close to 100%? (2) Will this team display the post-championship hangover that we've seen from so many teams in the past ten years? (3) Does Matt Clement have the mentality to become a solid #3 starter? (4) How many starts will David Wells give the Sox? (5) Was Mark Bellhorn a one-year wonder? All things considered, this team looks pretty good on paper. The lineup remains one of the best in baseball history and could be even better with Renteria. The bullpen is very solid and could be even better if Matt Mantei stays healthy. Wakefield and Arroyo could be the best 4/5 starter combo in the American League. That leaves the top of the rotation (see the concerns mentioned above). As I pointed out in my January 3rd version of Random Notes, Wells and Clement compare favorably to Martinez and Lowe. Will those trends hold in 2005? Only time will tell.

3. Orioles -- Last year, I felt that the Orioles were a year away from competing for a playoff spot but they really don't look like a contender as we speak. They certainly won't have any trouble scoring runs. Even though his numbers have diminished in each of the past four seasons, Sammy Sosa should make the O's lineup better. Melvin Mora has become a bona fide superstar. A healthy Luis Matos and Jay Gibbons could mean that the Orioles will compete with the Sox and Yankees for run-scoring supremacy in 2005 (they were 6th in the AL last year). Where they do not reign supreme is on the mound. Baltimore was in the middle of the pack last year in ERA and unless some young pitchers find their groove quickly, they will remain there this season. B.J. Ryan has the nasty stuff that could make him one of the best closers in the game but will he have any leads to protect with the wild Jorge Julio in the setup role? Baltimore may lead the league in the "most losses when scoring 10 or more runs" category.

4. Devil Rays -- The D-Rays played some excellent ball at times last year and should have enough rising talent to win a couple more games than they did last season (70). Carl Crawford and Aubrey Huff are only getting better but there isn't a whole lot in this lineup to fear. In the rotation, Dewon Brazelton (53 walks in 120 innings) and Scott Kazmir have some potential, but this team is a long way from competing for a playoff spot.

5. Blue Jays -- The Blue Jays appear to be a franchise moving in the wrong direction. The team that won a pair of World Series titles in the 1990s lost 94 games last year. Add to their woes the loss of Carlos Delgado and his 32 homers and 99 RBIs. That leaves the pressure squarely on Vernon Wells and Corey Koskie to produce. A healthy Roy Halladay at the top of the rotation will be good news for Jays fans (all twelve of them) but when Ted Lilly is your #2 starter, it's pretty evident that you are in a rebuiding mode.

American League Central

1. Twins -- It's becoming very difficult to pick anyone other than the Twins to win the AL Central. Minnesota's ability to get a lot out of a small payroll coupled with the weak competition in what has been dubbed "Comedy Central" has resulted in four consecutive division titles. This year, the Twins lost the left side of their infield (Corey Koskie and Christian Guzman). Offensively, this shouldn't make much of a difference but it could cause a dent in the armor of one of the better defenses in the majors. Catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau, both second year players, should become household names in 2005. The reason that the Twins will win the Central is pitching: no team in the division can come close to competing with a top of the rotation like Johan Santana (13-0, 1.21 ERA in the second half last year), Brad Radke and Carlos Silva. Joe Nathan was one of the best closers in the league last year, enabling Twins fans to say "Eddie Who?" by the end of the year.

2. Indians -- My sleeper team in the American League is the Cleveland Indians. As they did in the early 1990s, the Indians are building from the ground up with young talent. So far, they are on the right track. DH/1B Travis Hafner (.311, 28 HR, 109 RBI) and Catcher Victor Martinez (.283, 23 HR, 108 RBI) each had breakout seasons in 2004. First baseman Ben Broussard could do the same this season. Juan Gonzalez and Aaron Boone could be good complements to the young players. Then of course, there is the best name in the game - centerfielder Coco Crisp. The Indians will go about as far as the pitching takes them. C.C. Sabathia has been teetering on the precipice of becoming a genuine ace but his numbers still reflect that of a #2 starter. Kevin Millwood needs a bounce-back season. Jake Westbrook was excellent last season (14-9, 3.38). Young lefty Cliff Lee (9-1, 3.77 before the All Star break; 5-7, 7.91 after) may be the key. Bob Wickman is set to be the Tribe's closer this year. He's thrown 64 innings in the last three years with an ERA near 4.40 (Browns fans should be very familiar with the words impending disaster).

3. White Sox -- The White Sox offense, which finished third in the majors behind the Red Sox and Yankees in runs scored, will have to replace 61 homeruns and 169 RBIs with the departure of Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin. Newcomer Scott Podsednik, who is coming off a disappointing year, could help to replace a lot of that production. Steady Mark Buehrle (65-44 over the past four years) and Freddy Garcia give the White Sox a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. After that, it will be up to John Garland and two Yankee castoffs - Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras - to keep the Sox in contention. Japanese veteran Shingo Takatsu was impressive last year as the Sox closer (19/20 saves, 2.31 ERA).

4. Tigers -- The Tigers improved by 29 wins between 2003 and 2004. Clearly, they won't see that type of progress, or anything close to it this season. But, the Tigers are headed in the right direction. Detroit added Magglio Ordonez to a lineup that already featured Ivan Rodriguez. Shortstop Carlos Guillen found his stroke last season (.318, 20 HR, 97 RBI) as did first baseman Carlos Pena (.241, 27 HR, 82 RBI). The young starting rotation is beginning to come around. After going a combined 15-40 with ERAs above 5.50 in 2003, righty Jeremy Bonderman and lefty Mike Maroth each went 11-13 with ERAs under 5.00 in 2004. The leads will also be a little safer this year with the addition of Troy Percival. Ugueth Urbina will likely be the setup man and could be good trade bait later in the season.

5. Royals -- Both the Tigers and Indians are moving in the right direction. The same cannot be said, however, for the Kansas City Royals. The Royals lost 104 games last season and could be even worse this year. John Buck, Ruben Gotay, David DeJesus, Tony Graffanino and Eli Marrero are all expected to be in the Royals starting lineup on Opening Day. The only true name in the KC lineup will be first baseman Mike Sweeney (.287, 22 HR, 79 RBI) and he'll be someplace else by August. Jose Lima will be the ace of a rotation that includes Zach Greinke, Brian Anderson and Denny Bautista. Jeremy Affeldt (13/17 saves 4.95 ERA) will close for the Royals. That is, if they ever have a lead after the eighth inning.

American League West

1. Angels -- The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, which means The The Angels Angels of Anaheim, are heavy favorites to defend their division title in 2005. The Angels made some minor changes this season, adding Orlando Cabrera, Steve Finley and promoting Dallas McPherson. Gone are David Eckstein, Troy Glaus and troublemaker Jose Guillen. The changes should make the Angels a slightly better offensive team in 2005. The rotation remains mostly unchanged with a solid foursome of Colon, Washburn, Lackey and Escobar at the top. Paul Byrd is a nice fit in the #5 spot. With Troy Percival off to Detroit, Frankie Rodriguez will take over in the closer role. The Angels bullpen will very strong once again.

2. Mariners -- The Mariners have been a solid franchise for the last decade, but last season they looked more like the M's of yesteryear with the Dome, the pitchfork hats and Mario Mendoza. I don't think the Mariners will pose much of a threat to the Angels but I do think they will improve by at least ten games. The lineup looks solid. Edgar Martinez is gone, but Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre (.334, 48 HR, 121 RBI) will join the middle of the Seattle batting order. Rookie outfielder Jeremy Reed is expected to do big things as well. These guys should have plenty of RBI chances batting behind Ichiro. The rotation is a bit shaky with 41 year old Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro, Bobby Madritsch and Ryan Franklin (4-16 in 2004). Eddie Guardado's injury problems will put current setup man J.J. Putz on the spot early in the season.

3. Rangers -- After getting rid of A-Rod, the Rangers made a giant leap in 2004 winning 89 games. I think Texas will take a bit of step back this season. The offense remains potent with several great young hitters. Michael Young, Hank Blalock, Alfonso Soriano and Mark Texieira combined for 120 homers, 399 runs and 412 RBI last season. There is no reason to believe that they won't do it again in 2005. The problem with the Rangers, as always, is pitching. The fact that the Rangers rotation includes Pedro Astacio (three wins and an ERA above 8.00 over the past two seasons), Chan Ho Park (14 wins and an ERA near 6.00 as a Ranger) and Kenny Rogers (age 40) tells you everything that you need to know about Texas' chances. Ryan Drese (14-10, 4.20 ERA) will start the opener. Frank Francisco (the chair-thrower) and Francisco Cordero (the closer) will anchor what will end up being a very overworked bullpen.

4. A's -- The Big Three have become the Big One after a winter of wheeling and dealing. Barry Zito is still there, but Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson have been shipped to the National League. Filling their shoes will be youngsters Rich Harden and Danny Haren (it was hard enough to tell these guys apart when they played for different teams). The A's still have a decent pitching staff, but it is not what it once was and this is not a team that can rely on offense to win games. When the A's have a lead late in the game, they will give the ball to Octavio Dotel (he converted a mediocre 80% of his save opportunities in 2004). The A's added a little offense in the person of catcher Jason Kendall but they will struggle to score runs this season as they have in recent years. I don't think anyone will be referring to Erubiel Durazo and Eric Chavez as the "Bash Brothers."

National League

Unlike the American League, the playoff race in the National League is wide open. From what I can tell, ten teams are legitimate contenders for a playoff spot in 2005 (sorry, Nationals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, D-backs and Rockies). At the same time, no team appears to be head and shoulders better than the rest of the pack. Here are my picks:

National League East

1. Marlins -- The 2003 champs added Carlos Delgado to an already solid lineup that includes Paul LoDuca, Mike Lowell, Miguel Cabrera and Juan Pierre. The Florida rotation is one of the best in baseball with Beckett, Leiter, Burnett and Willis at the top. Eric Gagne's old setup man Guillermo Mota is ready to become an All Star closer.

2. Braves -- It's hard to pick against a team that has won the division every year for more than a decade but I will do it anyway. Atlanta's rotation will be formidable as always with the addition of Smoltz (moving back from the pen) and Tim Hudson. Danny Kolb saved 60 of 67 with the Brewers over the past two years. He should get a few more chances with the Braves. The lineup is a bit soft but they should have enough clout with Jones and Jones to get Atlanta into the playoffs, this time as the Wild Card.

3. Mets -- No one was more active in the offseason than the Mets. New York added big guns to both the lineup (Carlos Beltran) and the rotation (Pedro Martinez). Those guys will help but the Mets still have a weak lineup and one of the shakiest pens in the league. Pedro will compete with Anna Benson for air time.

4. Phillies -- The Phillies have been very disappointing over the past couple of years. They have a nice lineup that includes Thome, Abreu and Rollins and they have Billy Wagner to close games but it doesn't appear that the Phils have the starting pitching to hang with the Marlins and Braves.

5. Nationals-- Like the Expos, the Nationals will stink. The only difference is that in Washington, they will stink in front of a whole lot more people. Guillen and Guzman will give the lineup a little more credibility but not enough to avoid 95 or more losses. Livan Hernandez will again be one of the most sought after pitchers as the trade deadline approaches.

National League Central

1. Cardinals -- Even without Edgar Renteria and Tony Womack, the St. Louis lineup will be devastating to opposing pitchers again this season. The Redbirds added Mark Mulder to what was already a very good pitching staff. Tavares and Isringhausen are capable at the back of the bullpen. A return to the World Series is highly probable.

2. Cubs -- If the Cubs were healthy, they would stack up quite well with the Cardinals. As it is, the Cubs have serious concerns about the health of both Prior and Wood. Maddux and Zambrano should continue to to hold things together but it will be a whole lot tougher with closer Joe Borowski out for a while. Offensively, the Cubs may miss Moises Alou (.293, 39 HR, 106 RBI) more than they miss Sammy Sosa (.253, 35 HR, 80 RBI). Nomar tore the cover off of the ball in Spring Training and looks ready to play for a long-term contract.

3. Astros -- Last season may have been the last chance for the Bagwell/Biggio Astros to play in the franchise's first World Series. The key to success for the 2005 Astros may very well be Andy Pettitte. If he is healthy, the Astros rotation of Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte, Backe and Duckworth should propel Houston into the Wild Card (and possibly the NL Central) race. Beltran and Kent will be tough shoes to fill in the lineup.

4. Reds -- The Ken Griffey saga will enter another chapter in 2005. Junior's power numbers (20 HR, 60 RBI) were great for only a half season of play but once again injuries claimed a good chunk of his season. Adam Dunn and Sean Casey should again combine for 80 homers and 200-plus RBIs. The offense should be okay, but the pitching staff doesn't have the horses to keep Cincy in the race for a playoff spot.

5. Pirates -- The Pirates have a nice young team including shortstop Jack Wilson and outfielder Jason Bay. Ace Oliver Perez (12-10, 2.98 ERA, 11 K/9) is well on his way to becoming a superstar. The rest of the staff is so-so. The Pirates just might have enough young talent to be this year's Texas Rangers, but with St. Louis, Chicago and Houston in the same division, it will be very difficult for the Bucs to do much better than .500.

6. Brewers -- The Brewers, like the Royals, always seem like they just can't wait to dump their young talent. Milwaukee has some very interesting young players on the verge of being major leaguers, including Cecil's son, Prince Fielder. You just wonder how long those young players will be there. Ace Ben Sheets (12-14, 2.70 ERA) will undoubtedly prompt many calls as the trading deadline approaches.

National League West

1. Padres -- With Barry Bonds hobbling around on a gimpy knee, the NL west could be San Diego's for the taking. Jake Peavy became an ace last season. San Diego needs Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence to make the leap this year. The Padres had a very good lineup last year, but it could be a great lineup if Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko play to their potential. San Diego's bullpen is one of the best in the majors.

2. Giants -- The San Francisco lineup was looking a whole lot better when they added Moises Alou to bat behind Bonds. The only problem is that Bonds isn't in the lineup just yet. It is impossible to predict how the Giants will finish this season because no one knows if Barry will play 140 games? 80 games? 0 games? It's anybody's guess. Without Bonds, the Giants will be in big trouble. The rotation isn't particularly strong after Jason Schmidt. Closer Armando Benitez was unhittable last year but how long can that possibly last?

3. Dodgers -- The Dodgers appear to be weaker offensively, defensively and on the mound this season. The lineup now includes J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent and Jose Valentin in place of Steve Finley, Shawn Green and Adrian Beltre. At the top of the rotation are three inconsistent starters (Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe and Jeff Weaver) and an injury-plagued Brad Penny. Eric Gagne is the best closer in the game but setup man Guillermo Mota has been replaced by Yhency Brazoban. By midseason, Los Angeles may be happy that they can now call the Angels their own.

4. Diamondbacks -- The D-backs have an interesting mix of veterans (Troy Glaus and Shawn Green are now in town) and young talent (including pitchers Brandon Webb and Greg Aquino). But, it appears as if Arizona is trapped somewhere between rebuilding and trying to contend. They have too many high priced veterans to truly rebuild and too little veteran talent to challenge for a playoff spot. It seems like a lot of money for a team that isn't all that interesting to watch.

5. Rockies -- The Rockies should be headed to the cellar and Todd Helton may be headed out of town by the end of July. Like the Royals, the Rockies have one or two marquee players and a bunch of guys you have never heard of. By the end of the season (100-plus losses from now), you may still not have heard of any of them.

World Series

Red Sox over the Marlins -- The seal has been broken. The Curse has been lifted. It worked for the Patriots, why not the Sox?