Nomar Traded to the Cubs

• It was very strange to see Nomar Garciaparra trot out to shortstop at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon as a member of the Chicago Cubs. A year ago, it was unthinkable that Nomar would not be in Boston for years to come. A month ago, it was unthinkable that he would be in Boston beyond this season. Nomar's relationship with the Red Sox was like a marriage gone bad. From the start, the team and their star shortstop were a match made in heaven. They were giddy newlyweds when Nomar burst onto the scene in 1996 and things continued to get better over the next five years. After the hardships of 2001, Nomar returned to form in 2002 and the love affair continued. The first signs of weakness in the marital bliss came in March of 2003 when Garciaparra and his foolish agent turned down a more than generous four-year, $60 million contract offer. By midseason, Nomar was talking about how he missed the beaches of Southern California. Nomar batted only .170 last September and added only one RBI in 12 postseason games. He didn't seem to be having much fun. During this past offseason, Nomar and his agent turned down a less generous contract offer. This led the team to essentially "cheat on" Nomar by pursuing Alex Rodriguez. Nomar admitted to being hurt by this turn of events but claimed that all was forgotten. Clearly, all was not forgotten and Nomar began marking his time while the divorce became final. The Red Sox, given no choice, finalized the separation two months early.



• It is very difficult to see Nomar leave Boston. Over the past 25 years, no Red Sox player was more adored by the fans than Garciaparra. No player worked harder or played the game with more class. Nomar peaked in 2000 when he batted .372, had an on base percentage of .434 and had 75 extra base hits despite missing 22 games. Then came the bodybuilding and the wrist injury and Nomar was never quite the same. Garciaparra's production was nearly the same after the injury but his average declined precipitously. Nomar's combined batting average in 1999 and 2000 was .365. Since then, he has batted only .306 (it's hard to say "only" .306 but a 59 point drop is more than an aberration). Nomar's on base percentage dropped even more, falling from .425 in '99 and '00 to .347 between '01 and '04, a decline of 78 points. His fielding percentage in 2003 was identical to his fielding percentage in 2000, but I don't think any Sox fan would claim that his range was the same (I've always wondered if Nomar's excessive weight training weakened his fielding skills). Based on the Range Factor and Zone Rating defensive statistics from Stats, Inc., Nomar's range diminished between 2000 and 2003. I'm certainly not claiming that Nomar is no longer a great player, nor am I saying that he will be Jackie Gutierrez or Spike Owen in two years, but I also wouldn't count on Nomar regaining his old form as Roger Clemens did after he left Boston.



• Clearly, it was time for Nomar to move on. His attitude this season was not helping the team. I wouldn't go so far as to call him a cancer but at the very least he was a bad case of the flu. But, did the Red Sox get enough in return? Given the circumstances, I think so. I have been following the Sox since 1977 and I cannot think of any season where they could be considered a good defensive team. This season, however, has probably been the worst. It seems like every Red Sox error has been costly this season (the fact that they have given up a league-high 69 unearned runs supports this). Derek Lowe alone has given up 23 unearned runs. How damaging is that to a pitcher's psyche? If nothing else, the trade significantly upgrades Boston's horrible infield defense. Mientkiewicz and Cabrera have both won gold gloves, as has Pokey Reese who is currently on the DL. Having Mientkiewicz, Reese and Cabrera will make a big difference to the pitchers, especially Derek Lowe who relies heavily on solid infield defense. The Red Sox lineup certainly loses some power without Garciaparra, but they might not lose much in the way of on base percentage if the two new players can regain their 2003 form. Last season, Cabrera batted .297 with 17 homers and 80 RBIs. Mientkiewicz batted .300 with 11 homers. This season, both players have slumped into the .240s. The addition of Cabrera and former Dodgers outfielder Dave Roberts, who came over in a separate deal, also improves the Red Sox team speed. Cabrera has stolen 20-plus bases in each of the past two seasons and Roberts has nabbed 118 bases since the beginning of 2002. Roberts has excellent range in the outfield but has an arm as weak as Johnny Damon's.

One piece of good news for the Red Sox is that the schedule will lighten considerably in August. Seven of the last ten series of three games or more the Sox have played have been against teams that would be in the playoffs based on today's standings (and one of the other three was a four game series in Anaheim). Of the next 26 games on the schedule, 20 will be played against teams currently below .500. The other six will be against the Chicago White Sox whose ownership, as usual, is throwing in the towel in the middle of the pennant race (more on the Loiaza trade below). In September, the schedule will get tougher so the Red Sox desperately need to take advantage of the August schedule.

Though I was very happy that the Yankees did not get Randy Johnson, it was disheartening to hear that yet another organization made a charitable donation to the Yankees. This time it was the Chicago White Sox who handed the Yankees a Cy Young caliber pitcher in Esteban Loaiza for a #5 starter in Jose Contreras. In my estimation, the White Sox should be renamed the Frenchmen because no one in baseball surrenders at midseason quite as well as they do. Since the beginning of 2003, Loaiza is 30-14 and has pitched 367 innings. Contreras has won all of 15 games in his career and this year his ERA has ballooned to 5.65. It is infuriating that so many teams are eager to hand their star players to the Yankees. Since the end of the last year, the Yankees have acquired Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez and Esteban Loaiza for Jeff Weaver, Nick Johnson, Randy Choate, Juan Rivera and Jose Contreras. Brown, Vazquez and Loaiza combined for 48 wins last year with an average ERA of 2.84. I'd love to know what kind of mind control device Brian Cashman is using to get opposing teams to give up Cy Young starters for garbage. And I didn't even mention the Rangers paying 35% of A-Rod's salary.

It continues to astound me how the Braves and A's continue to put winning teams on the field even as star players leave for larger contracts. I thought that this season might be the beginning of the end for the Braves dynasty, but as usual Bobby Cox has his team in position to win another division title despite losing Greg Maddux, Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez (Sheffield and Lopez combined for 82 homers and 242 RBI in 2003). The A's are an even more amazing story. Oakland, already suffering from a tiny budget, lost one of the best offensive players in the game in Miguel Tejada and their closer Keith Foulke. Barry Zito isn't having a good season, yet the Athletics are in first place on August 1st. Billy Beane's ability to put winning baseball teams on the field given that budget is nothing short of miraculous.

Trade Deadline Winners and Losers

• Cubs: The Cubbies were able to upgrade from Alex Gonzalez for Nomar without giving up any additional players from the Major League roster. Their fans have to be ecstatic. How scary is the Cubs lineup? If the Cubs make the playoffs, Nomar might be the only non-pitcher in the lineup that does not have 20 homeruns. Four of those guys will hit 30.



• Marlins: The Marlins gave up a very solid starter in Brad Penny but gained an All Star catcher in Paul LoDuca and a top notch set-up man in Guillermo Mota. Encarnacion improves Florida's outfield defense. These moves gave the Fish a chance to defend their title.

• Yankees: Contreras for Loaiza is a huge win for the Yankees. Health remains a concern for New York, but if they can run a Mussina-Brown-Loaiza-Vazquez rotation backed by Gordon and Rivera into the playoffs, they will be very difficult to beat.



• Red Sox: The Sox may have been able to slug their way into the playoffs, but they simply could not win the World Series without upgrading defensively. Francona will have a nice combination of players. He can use guys like Millar and Bellhorn when he needs offense and has Mientkiewicz, Reese, Cabrera and Kapler to when he needs defense. By trading for Cabrera and Roberts, the Red Sox increased the number of players that can steal a base from one to three.

• Mets: I can't begin to imagine what the Mets were thinking giving up two top prospects for two #3 starters like Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano. The moves certainly improve the Mets but how much and at what cost? Even with Benson and Zambrano, it is highly unlikely that Mets can erase the eight games (and several teams) that separate them from the playoffs. The Mets have made a nice turnaround this season and shouldn't throw in the proverbial towel. However, they are clearly not a team that should be trading top prospects and mortgaging their future for an improbable playoff run in 2004.



• Dodgers: The Dodgers lost their version of Jason Varitek in catcher Paul LoDuca and an excellent set-up man in Guillermo Mota to get 39-year-old Steve Finley and starter Brad Penny. Apparently, these moves were made to give LA a chance to nab Randy Johnson. That didn't happen. As it stands, these look like bad moves. Personnel-wise the Dodgers came out fairly even, but the timing is very odd. The Dodgers have been the hottest team in baseball over the past couple of weeks and to make such drastic moves at this point in the season is a big risk for new GM Paul DePodesta. The phrase I heard most often from Dodger fans (all 20 of them) is "if it isn't broken, don't fix it." I couldn't agree more.