June 1, 2008

The Red Sox were 17-12 through the end of April and were also 17-12 in the the month of May. The Sox, however, have been anything but consistent this season. The Red Sox already have had winning streaks of five, six and seven games. They have also had losing streaks of four and five games and began the current road trip 1-5. The Sox are in decent shape at 34-24 but that record could (and should) be much better. They have lost three games with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Sox were 2-6 in one-run games in May. As a result, the Sox are only three games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column. Given New York's struggles, that gap should be much larger. The Red Sox may live to regret not putting more space between themselves and the Yankees during the first two months of the season.

Maybe I shouldn't be too quick to focus on the Yankees. It's the Tampa Bay Rays who are atop the AL East at 34-22. The Rays are 19-3 in their last 22 home games. The Rays are fifth in the AL in team ERA and lead all of baseball in fielding. The Jays and Orioles are also in the vicinity of .500 so the AL East is much more competitive than it's been in recent years. I think it will again come down the Red Sox and Yankees by September but it would not shock me to see Tampa Bay and Toronto in the playoff hunt. The struggles of Detroit and Cleveland have left the Central and Wild Card races wide open.

The trio of Ortiz, Lowell and Youkilis had a big month of May of the Sox. Each batted at least .300 with 6 or more homers and 20 or more RBIs. Manny Ramirez slumped to .228 with only four HRs in May. It appears that he was pressing to reach #500. Look for Manny to have a huge June. One of the more amazing achievements during the month of May was Jacoby Ellsbury's 18 steals. To put this in perspective, the Sox stole only 45 bases in the entire 2005 season.

On the pitching side, the Sox had a solid 3.66 team ERA during May. Colon, Lester and Matsuzaka were a combined 8-1 and each starter had an ERA of less then 3.00. Beckett was a mediocre 3-2 with a 4.43 ERA. Wakefield was awful (1-4, 5.25). Hideki Okajima led the Sox with an 0.61 ERA in May. Papelbon, Lopez, Aardsma and Timlin all had ERAs below 2.60. Craig Hansen was only Sox reliever who really struggled in May (but pitched well on Friday night in Baltimore).

Player of the Month: This is a tough call because there isn't a clear-cut standout for May yet there are several players who had very good months. On the mound, Daisuke was 4-0, Lester pitched a no-hitter and Okajima had a miniscule ERA. As a mentioned above, Ortiz, Lowell and Youk all had very good months at the plate. You could easily make a case for any of those six players but I am going to choose Jon Lester largely for his no-hit performance on May 19th. This was a great moment in Red Sox history and an inspiring moment for all of us.

May 1, 2008

The 2008 season has already had several ups and downs. The Sox began the season with a solid 3-1 record playing the A's in Japan and Oakland, only to be swept by the Jays in Toronto. The Sox then won 12 of their next 14 beginning with the home opener to improve to 15-7. Five consecutive losses later Boston was 15-12 and trailing the Orioles and Rays in the AL East. Thanks to the two dramatic victories over the Jays the past two nights, the Sox ended April with a 17-12 record. Considering the Red Sox brutal travel schedule (including a Florida to Japan to California to Toronto to Boston stretch), the flu outbreak, the injuries and Big Papi's problems, I'll take 17-12 at this point.

Not only were the Sox inconsistent in terms of wins and losses. They were also a tale of two teams offensively. About a week ago, Boston was hitting over .300 as a team and pretty much everyone in the lineup other than Ortiz was tearing the cover off the ball. Amazingly, the same team has scored just four runs in the last four games and had only seven hits combined in the Saturday and Sunday losses to the Rays. I'm certainly not worried. This team will score plenty of runs this season.

I am very encouraged by the performances of the young pitchers. Jon Lester has struggled this season but he gave up just one hit (and four walks) in eight shutout innings on Monday. His strikeout to walk ratio is 12:8 (aka 1.5) in his last three starts as compared to 10:15 (0.67) in his first four starts. Justin Masterson's major league debut last week was outstanding (2 hits, 4 walks and a run in 6 IP). Clay Buchholz was one out away from back-to-back starts without giving up a run. He's allowed just 8 hits and 4 walks in his last 14 innings of work. With Dice-K pitching so well (4-0, 2.52 ERA) and Josh Beckett coming off a 13 strikeout performance, it's starting to look like the Red Sox rotation will be in good shape.

I am not sure if I can say the same for the middle relief. Papelbon and Okajima have given up just four earned runs combined this season (in 24 innings) and David Aardsma has a decent 3.29 ERA. However, the rest of the pen (Lopez, Tavarez, Hansen, DelCarmen, Corey, Timlin, Snyder) has an ERA of 7.60. Wow! The seventh and eighth innings this year have been a nightmare for the Sox. I am sure that the Red Sox will consider moving Coco Crisp for a solid middle reliever.

Offensively, four Red Sox regulars are batting over .300, led by Manny (.343, 6 HR, 20 RBI). Sean Casey has proven to be a great pickup (.346 avg, .424 obp) especially with Mike Lowell's injury. Pedroia and Youkilis got off to amazing starts but have cooled considerably with the rest of the team. J.D. Drew was off to a very hot start but is now 4 for his last 31. It feels like deja vu. I am hope I'm wrong. That brings us to Big Papi who has a sore knee and is batting just .184. He does have 5 homers and 21 RBI, putting him on a pace for 30 HR and 124 RBI. Things have been a little better of late but I can't help but be nervous about Papi's performance given the knee problems.

17-12 is not a great start but it looks good in comparison to many of the Red Sox chief rivals in the chase for playoff spots. The Yankees, Tigers and Indians all ended April below .500. Only the Angels (18-11) have a better record than the Red Sox in the AL. It is interesting that every single AL team has at least 11 wins and at least 11 losses. In fact, the Arizona D-backs (20-8) are the only team in the NL without at least 11 wins and 11 losses. This could be a very competitive year in Major League Baseball.

Player of the Month: Papelbon and Matsuzaka had great months but the award has to go to Manny Ramirez (.343, 6 HR, 21 RBI including Japan).