July 9, 2006

Sunday's game in Chicago was easily the most frustrating game of the year. Twice the Sox had the lead heading into Chicago's final at bat but Chicago rallied both times. For the first time this year, the Red Sox lost a game in which they handed Papelbon the ball with the lead. Papelbon's first two blown saves later turned into Red Sox victories. Luck was not on Boston's side on Sunday. The Red Sox spent most of the day hitting line drives directly at Chicago players while the White Sox grabbed several cheap hits including a crucial infield hit in the bottom the 19th. The White Sox also survived an 11th inning baserunning error where Jermaine Dye rounded third base then failed to retouch third as he scurried back to second base following a Trot Nixon catch. Had the Red Sox noticed Dye's mistake, they could have had an easy double play and probably would have won the game. Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek were 0 for 9 and 0 for 8, respectively. Even the big guns had tough games. Ortiz and Ramirez were a combined 2 for 15 with three strikeouts. Ortiz grounded into two double plays. It was not the kind of game you want to take into the All Star break.

The lone bright spot was Julian Tavarez, who pitched four shutout innings (one hit, one walk). Tavarez has given up just one run in his last 11 innings of work.

Player of the Week: I'm not sure the Red Sox should have a Player of the Week given the misery of the last seven days but the obvious choice is David Ortiz. Big Papi was 9 for 30 this week (.300) with 5 HR and 12 RBIs. He also scored seven runs.

July 2, 2006

If the Red Sox win the AL East, they will probably be able to credit their play against the National League. Boston finished interleague play with an incredible 16-2 mark. This contrasts sharply with the early years of interleague play when the Sox had a terrible record against the NL. For the most part, the American League has dominated interleague play this season.

The Red Sox were 5-1 this week and are 14-1 since being swept by the Minnesota Twins two and a half weeks ago. It appears that the Twins series was a wake-up call for the Red Sox.

Player of the Week: The choice this week was not difficult. David Ortiz was 8 for 19 this week with 4 homers, 7 RBIs and 8 runs. He was on base 10 of 21 times this week. Big Papi has raised his batting average from .264 to .276 in the last nine games.

June 30, 2006

The Red Sox 12-game winning streak ended on Friday night as the latest attempt to find a fifth starter, Jason Johnson, pitched miserably in the first two innings. The Red Sox ended June on a losing note, but it was a great month for the Sox. Boston was 17-9 in June (they were also 17-9 in May). The bats are warming up (the Sox averaged 7.6 runs per game during the winning streak), the starting pitching has been much better (2.89 starters ERA during the streak) and the defense has been simply amazing (17 games without an error).

There was a lot of talk this season about the Red Sox offense. Many people felt that it would take a step back in 2006. The Red Sox led the majors in runs in 2003, 2004 and 2005. After a slow start, the Red Sox are now second in the majors in runs per game. The White Sox are averaging 5.8 runs per game, the Red Sox are averaging 5.6. The pitching still leaves something to be desired (17th in the MLB) but things are going in the right direction. As poorly as the bullpen has been at times this season, it has improved since last season. The Sox 2006 bullpen ERA is 4.15. Last year, it was 5.15. If you remove Papelbon from the 2006 mix, the bullpen ERA is 4.95. The defense, needless to say, has been astounding. The Red Sox have committed only 23 errors this season, 12 fewer than the next best defensive team (Seattle, 35). Boston is on pace to shatter the major league record for fewest errors in a season.

Curt Schilling's value simply cannot be overestimated. Last season, the Sox were not a championship caliber team mainly because Schilling was not healthy. The Red Sox were only 5-6 in Schilling starts last year. In 2004 and 2006, the Red Sox are an amazing 39-10 in games started by Schilling. The Sox are 25-8 this season when Beckett and Schilling start (23-21 otherwise).

Plenty of Red Sox were great in the month of June. Mark Loretta batted .330 in June after a .404 month of May. Youkilis batted .309 with 15 RBI and 17 runs. David Ortiz batted .277 with 8 HR, 22 RBI and 20 runs. Manny Ramirez batted .309 with 7 HR, 21 RBI and 17 runs. Trot Nixon batted .386 with 1 HR, 14 RBIs and a .465 on base percentage. Alex Gonzalez batted .352 with 3 HR, 10 RBI and no errors. In limited action, Alex Cora batted .325. On the pitching side, Jon Papelbon was 2-0 and converted 5 of 7 saves in June. His ERA was 0.68. Curt Schilling was 2-0 with a 2.85 ERA (37 K/5 BB).

Player of the Month: On the numbers alone this is a tough decision, but anyone who has watched the Red Sox the past month knows that Big Papi was the Player of the Month and the team's MVP. His three-run walkoff homer beat the Rangers 5-4 on June 11th. His grand slam was the key hit in a 9-3 win over Washington on June 21st. He hit another walk-off last Saturday to beat the Phils 5-3 in ten innings and two days later drove in the winning run in an 8-7 12-inning victory.

June 25, 2006

Big Papi did it again. His ability to come up with big hits, especially big homers, is simply amazing. It's hard to believe that anyone pitches to him in situations such as the one Tom Gordon faced on Saturday. This is why the Sox could not afford to give away Manny Ramirez. Ortiz would be walked almost as much as Barry Bonds if not for Ramirez. Speaking of Manny. Through 16 games this season, Ramirez had no homers and only 6 RBI. He has 20 homers and 45 RBIs in 52 games since.

The only thing more amazing than Big Papi's clutch hitting is the work of Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon lowered his 2006 ERA to an unimaginable 0.24. He has now struck out 39 batters and walked only 5. Papelbon has now given up one run in his last 40 appearances (51 1/3 innings).

Starting pitching continues to be the key to success. In the last eight games (all wins), Sox starters have given up just 15 runs in 49 innings. That's an ERA of 2.76. It was very encouraging to see Jon Lester have a second consecutive excellent start. He struck out 10 batters on Wednesday night. It appears that Papelbon, Lester and Beckett will be the core of the Sox rotation in years to come. You can't help but be excited about that.

Most of the Red Sox hitters had solid weeks: Loretta (11 for 23, 4 runs), Cora (5 for 7, 4 runs), Ortiz (6 for 20, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs), Ramirez (8 for 17, 3 HR, 9 RBI), Nixon (8 for 16, 3 RBI, 4 runs), Gonzalez (5 for 12, 4 runs).

Player of the Week: All of the players mentioned above were worthy of the Player of the Week award. I am giving the nod to Ramirez.

June 18, 2006

The Red Sox picked up their fourth sweep of the year on the heels of being swept for the first time all season. The Red Sox won three in a row over the fading Braves thanks in large part to starting pitching and Jon Papelbon. Lester, Beckett and Schilling gave up just five runs combined in 18 innings of work over the weekend and Papelbon saved all three games. The offense did its part as well. Jason Varitek had a big three-run double on Friday night. Youkilis and Ortiz homered on both Saturday and Sunday.

The Red Sox survived a tough 19 game stretch that included 15 road games including series against the Jays, Yankees and Tigers. The Red Sox were 9-10 during the three week period. I was hoping for something better than 9-10, but things could have been worse. Game-saving ninth inning homers by Youkilis and Ortiz helped the Sox to two key comeback wins.

Jonathan Papelbon's performance continues to be ridiculous. In his last 39 appearances dating back to September 19th of last year, Papelbon has given up just one run in 49 innings of work. During that time, he's surrendered just 25 hits and 5 walks. He has 42 strikeouts during this stretch.

The two Red Sox regulars who struggled the most in the first couple of months have improved dramatically in June. Jason Varitek is batting .304 since May 29th and Alex Gonzalez is batting .325 in the month of June. Trot Nixon has been great all season. He's batting .382 in June.

Player of the Week: Alex Gonzalez, who was 8 for 18 this week (.444) and continues to play spectacular defense.

June 12, 2006

The Red Sox managed to regain the lead in the AL East despite dropping two of four to the Rangers over the weekend. The Sox won both games started by the veterans and lost by games started by the rookies. The Red Sox are now 11 games over .500. Curt Schilling is 9 games over .500. The Sox pitching staff has not had many solid games of late. The staff has given up three runs or fewer in only 6 of the last 22 games (27%). They gave up three runs or fewer in 18 of the first 39 games (46%).

Overall, the Red Sox bullpen has been better than it was last year (it could only get better) but in reality most of that improvement comes from one person, Jon Papelbon. The ERAs of some of the key middle relievers are disturbing: Seanez 4.56, Tavvarez 4.66, Delcarmen 5.23, Foulke 5.63.

The defense has been weak the past two weeks as well. The Sox committed only 15 errors in their first 48 games. They have committed 8 errors in the past 13 games. I hope this is not a trend.

What a moment for the Red Sox and David Ortiz in Game One on Sunday. I have never seen a Red Sox player with the flair for the dramatic that Ortiz possesses. It is simply amazing. Ortiz now has five walk-off homers with the Red Sox. The walk-offs are simply the tip of the iceberg. He's done it with singles, doubles and eighth inning homers. Watching on Sunday, I was afraid that Loretta would bounce into a DP. All I wanted was for Papi to have a chance to swing the bat. Thankfully, the batters in front of him allowed that to happen.

Kevin Youkilis had a nice week. He was 7 for 18 with 2 RBIs and 3 runs. He reached base 12 times in 23 at bats. Manny and Big Papi each had a pair of homers this week. Jason Varitek was 7 for 19 with a homer and 4 RBIs.

Player of the Week: Trot Nixon, who was 11 for 24 (and reached base 14 of 27 times) with a homer, 4 RBIs and 7 runs scored.

June 4, 2006

The Sox have reached the one-third mark in the regular season. This early in the season, the individual "on pace" numbers don't mean a whole lot, but they are always interesting to examine. Here are some of the "on pace" statistics:

• The team is currently 33-21. That means they are on pace for a 99-63 season.
• The Red Sox are on pace to hit 201 homers this year. Amazingly, only 21 of their 67 homers this season have come at Fenway.
• David Ortiz is on pace for 48 homers and 150 RBI despite batting only .261. Manny is on pace for 42 HR and 111 RBI which is pretty amazing considering his slow start.
• Mike Lowell is on pace for a major league record 69 doubles.
• Seven Red Sox are on pace for 75 or more RBIs.
• Manny Ramirez is on pace for 126 walks.
• Mark Loretta is on pace for 198 hits.
• As a team, the Sox are on pace to commit only 60 errors. At this rate, Alex Gonzalez will commit only three errors this season.
• Curt Schilling is on pace to go 24-6. Josh Beckett is on a 21-6 pace. Tim Wakefield is on pace to lose 21 games.
• Jon Papelbon is on pace to save 60 games.

Player of the Week: Jason Varitek, who was one of the few Sox to hit this week. In four games, Tek was 6 for 17 with a homer, 4 RBI and 3 runs.

Player of the Month (May): Mark Loretta, who batted .404 in May 16 RBI and 17 runs. He also played stellar defense. Loretta edged out Mike Lowell (.316 with 5 HR and 17 RBI), David Ortiz (5 HR, 28 RBI), Jon Papelbon (0.71 ERA, 9/9 in saves) and Manny Ramirez (.333 with 9 homers and 21 RBI).

May 28, 2006

Let's start with the good news: the Red Sox were 5-2 this week and will begin their 11 game road trip with a two game lead in the AL East. The Sox offense is really hitting its stride with nearly every Sox regular hitting the ball well. Even Alex Gonzalez had a nice week at the plate. The defense has been spectacular, especially in the infield. Beckett and Schilling are both pitching well and Tim Wakefield put together his best start of the year on Sunday afternoon. Jon Papelbon remains virtually unhittable.

As for the bad news ... the Red Sox really should have been 7-0 this week with a six game lead over New York (instead of two). On Tuesday night, with Boston trailing 4-1 in the top of the seventh, Francona inexplicably allowed a tiring Wakefield in the game to face A-Rod with two men on base. I think every Sox fan in New England knew what would happen next -- A-Rod launched one over the Monster (when the Yankees are ahead by three or more runs or behind by six or more runs, there is no better hitter in the game than A-Rod). The Sox scored three in the bottom of the seventh and eventually lost 7-5. More than likely, Francona's poor decision cost the Sox the game. On Wednesday, the Red Sox scored six runs but lost largely because of a ridiculous top of the second inning. After retiring Giambi and A-Rod, Matt Clement walked Robinson Cano, gave up an infield hit to Bernie Williams (which hit Clement), walked Terrance Long, HIT KELLY STINNETT to force home a run, gave up a single to Cabrera to score another run then surrendered a double to Jeter to plate two more. The Sox ended up losing by two runs. That second inning was the difference. As for the other bad news, the Red Sox bullpen after Papelbon and Timlin is underperforming right now. Foulke had problems this week and the performance by Seanez and Tavarez on Sunday was downright embarrassing. Matt Clement is a disaster right now. The Sox also have some minor injuries to worry about. Pena (wrist) and Ramirez (back) both missed time this week. David Wells took a line drive off his knee (the bad knee) in his first start off the DL. Mike Timlin has a tired arm and has not been available over the past few days.

The next three weeks will be a huge challenge for the Red Sox. In the next 21 days, the Red Sox will play 20 games, 16 of those on the road. This stretch includes road series against the Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Twins and Braves and a home series against Texas which includes a day-night double header. Here's the positive side: after this stretch of games, the Red Sox will play 53 of their final 94 games at Fenway (+12). In fact, 44 of the Red Sox 75 games after the All Star break will be at Fenway (+13). By contrast, the Yankees play 37 of 75 second half games at Yankee Stadium (-1). The Jays play only 35 of their final 74 at home (-4). If the Sox can stay in first place through the All Star break, they will be in great shape to win the AL East.

Although passed balls and lack of run support have had a lot to do with Tim Wakefield's poor record this season, most of his problems this season can be traced back to the number of walks Wakefield has given up. Last season, when Wakefield went 16-12, he walked an average of 2.7 batters per nine innings. Between 2002 and 2004, his walks per nine were 2.8, 3.2 and 3.0. Wakefield won more games than he lost in each of those seasons. Prior to Sunday's start, however, Wake had walked 3.7 batters per nine innings. Obviously, the last thing a knuckleballer who gives up a lot of homers wants to do is walk people. Sunday's 8 IP, 1 BB performance was very encouraging. Hopefully, we'll see a repeat of last season. In the first half of 2005, Wakefield walked 3.5 batters per nine innings. In the second half, that number shrunk to 1.8.

It's hard to understand why the fan behind the Red Sox dugout was giving Keith Foulke such a hard time on Friday night. Foulke was absolutely awful on Monday against the Yankees but all things considered, he's pitched well of late. If you take away that one outing against the Yanks, Foulke has given up seven runs in 22 2/3 innings since April 19th. That's an ERA of 2.78 if you exclude Monday's game. That's not up to closer standards, but it's pretty good for a seventh inning guy. Foulke has struck out 21 and walked only three batters this season. That is outstanding.

For those of you who are South Park fans, you have may have noticed that the 8-9 batters in the Yankees lineup on Tuesday were Terrence and Phillips. That's Terrence Long and Andy Phillips.

Who's HOT -- Josh Beckett (4-0 with an ERA of 2.33 in his last four starts); Mike Timlin (had gone 12 consecutive appearances without giving up a run before his outing on Thursday); Jon Papelbon (0.35 ERA, 18 saves in 18 chances); the Red Sox defense (a league best 15 errors this season); Kevin Youklis (his on base percentage is up to a Boggsian .440); Mark Loretta (.410 batting average in May); David Ortiz (27 RBI in May); Manny Ramirez (8 for 12 with 4 HR and 10 RBI in the Yankee series this week); Mike Lowell (is on pace for a major league record 74 doubles); Alex Gonzalez (7 for 15 this week); Alex Cora (6 for 11 this week).

Who's NOT -- Dustan Mohr, Willie Harris, Doug Mirabelli (all batting less than .180); Jason Varitek (batting .212 in May and .202 this season at Fenway); Matt Clement (15 earned runs allowed in his last three outings combined).

Player of the Week -- Schilling won twice this week but the award has to go to Manny Ramirez. He was 8 for 12 in the Yankee series with 4 homers, 10 RBI and 5 runs scored. He was 10 for 21 and reached base 12 of 23 times this week.

May 21, 2006

The Red Sox were 4-2 on their brief road trip, both times losing the third game of the series. The Sox moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. The bad news is that Boston could easily be ahead of New York by 3 1/2 games. The Yankees had two miracle wins this week: On Tuesday, they trailed 10-1 to the Rangers but won 14-13 on a bottom of the ninth two-run homer by Jorge Posada. On Saturday, the Yankees were down 4-0 heading into the ninth inning against the Mets but rallied to tie the game against Billy Wagner. They won the game in the tenth inning on a hit by the immortal Andy Phillips.

The Sox are now only two games in the loss column behind Detroit for the best record in the AL. That's right, Detroit. The Tigers are capable of staying in the playoff race all season. At present, four Tigers regulars are batting over .300. Four Tigers have at least 9 homers already. Magglio Ordonez (.316, 11 HR) and Chris Shelton (.315, 11 HR) have done both. Detroit's starting pitching has been amazing. Four of the five pitchers in the rotation have an ERA of 3.50 or less and all five have winning records. Kenny Rogers is 7-2 and has yet to beat up a camera man. There have been some stars in the bullpen as well including Fernando Rodney (1.42 ERA in 19 innings). The Sox and Tigers will meet up in Detroit for a three game series beginning on June 2nd.

Player of the Week: There is no doubt that Josh Beckett was Boston's Player of the Week. He went 2-0 this week, giving up four earned runs in 14 innings of work. Beckett struck out ten batters and walked just three in his two starts. Oh by the way, he also became the first Red Sox pitcher since 1972 to hit a homerun.

May 14, 2006

The Rangers swept the Red Sox this weekend in an abbreviated one game series. The Red Sox have now been rained out three times in the past two weeks. That will mean some double headers down the road and that is rarely a good thing. The Sox grabbed two of three from the Yankees thanks to some decent pitching from Beckett and Wakefield and a whole lot of baserunners in the first and third games of the series. The Sox scored only five on Thursday but left 15 runners on base. The Sox have now taken three of four from the Bronx Bombers this year.

I don't want to make too much of the 3-1 start against the Yankees but based on the early returns, I'd say that the Red Sox are the better team. By any measure, the Red Sox are the superior defensive team. Damon and Crosby made great plays in the recent series but the web gems were far outweighed by the various drops, some of which were Bad News Bears-like. The Yankees clearly have a lot more power in the lineup than the Red Sox but I'm not sure they will score more runs than the Red Sox this season, especially without Matsui for a few months, if not the rest of the season. Undoubtedly, they will pick up a veteran to replace him. The Red Sox offense is starting to produce the way we all had hoped they would. That is, not a ton of power (other than Ortiz and Ramirez of course) but a high on base percentage and plenty of doubles. Even Alex Gonzalez homered against the Yankees. As far as the pitching goes, the Schilling-Beckett combo looks better than Mussina-Johnson duo at this point. Mussina has pitched well but Johnson appears to have lost it. On the other hand, in the 3/4 spots, Wang and Chacon have pitched better than Wakefield/Clement this season. Right now, Jon Papelbon is a better closer than Mariano Rivera. Both teams have had mixed news out of the bullpen.

I haven't forgotten about the Blue Jays. Their lineup has battered American League pitching this year. Five Blue Jay regulars are batting .336 or better. Three players have a slugging percentage of better than .610. Halladay and Lilly are pitching well and B.J. Ryan has been as good as Papelbon in the closer's role. The down side for the Jays are injuries. Burnett is on the DL and it looks like Chacin will miss some starts. Halladay is coming off a major injury as well.

Player of the Week: It was a pretty easy choice this week. Mark Loretta was 9 for 16 against the Yankees and 9 for 19 for the week. He scored three runs and drove in five against the Yankees in New York. Loretta was batting .207 on May 3rd. He's now at .274. I have to believe that .300 is not far behind.

May 7, 2006

After dropping to 15-12, the Sox have won four consecutive games to match a season-best seven games over .500. The offense is finally starting to pick up. Five Red Sox regulars are batting .314 or better and one of those who isn't, David Ortiz, already has 11 homers and 28 RBIs. Another, Mark Loretta, has eight hits in his last four games. The starting pitching was solid in five of six games this week (the five wins). The only bad news was that the bullpen coughed up a win on Wednesday night against the Blue Jays. Even Jon Papelbon gave up a run in that game (the winning run). It was the first run the young righthander had given up since September 19th of last year (a span of 27 innings).

The Yankees are also playing good baseball. They will enter the upcoming series in the Bronx in a tie for first place with the Red Sox in the AL East. The Red Sox were scheduled to play the Yankees 12 times between May 1st and June 8th. In other words, Boston and New York were scheduled to meet 12 times in the first 62 games and only 7 times in the final 100 games (because of last week's rainout, it will now be 11 and 8, respectively). The Red Sox and Yankees will play only one series after August 21st. The Red Sox will also play 11 of their 19 against the Blue Jays prior to June 1st. This makes absolutely no sense. The good news for the Red Sox is that 8 of their final 12 games will be at Fenway.

Player of the Week: There were a few good candidates to choose from this week. Mark Loretta broke out of a slump and batted .346 (9 for 26) with seven runs this week. Manny Ramirez batted .500 (9 for 18), reached base 17 of 26 times this week and scored six runs. Kevin Youklis batted .440 (11 for 25) with two homers, four RBIs and eight runs scored. The award this week, however, goes to Mike Lowell. Lowell batted .381 (8 for 21) with six runs scored, six RBIs and six doubles. Lowell has 21 hits in his last 13 games.

April 30, 2006

After a great 11-4 start to the season, the Red Sox slumped to a 14-11 record in April. The Sox have now lost seven of ten games and were nearly swept by the Devil Rays. The good news is that all of the other top AL contenders, except for the white hot White Sox, also played poorly in April. In the AL, only the White Sox and Tigers were better than three games over .500 in the month of April.

First the good news: Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett both look healthy and for the most part have pitched well. The Foulke-Timlin-Papelbon late inning relief trio has been excellent (9 runs allowed in 40 2/3 innings). Keith Foulke is throwing well and appears to be healthy. The Red Sox defense has improved as they have made just 11 errors in 25 games. Kevin Youkilis is off to a very nice start. He's played excellent defense at first base and is batting .299. David Ortiz has already hit 10 homers. If he hits another 65 this season, the New York writers may even give him some MVP votes.

There is more bad news than good. The Red Sox offense has been sluggish to say the least. The team that has led the AL in runs in each of the past three years is currently ninth in that category. The Sox are also ninth in batting average and tenth in homers. Albert Pujols has more homers (14) than the the entire Red Sox team (13) if you subtract Big Papi's contribution. Ramirez and Ortiz appear to be the only Sox right now with any power. Nixon, Youkilis and Lowell are off to pretty good starts as far as batting average goes but Varitek and Loretta look awful. Varitek doesn't even look like the same person at the plate. Gonzalez has been pretty close to an automatic out. In fact, I always fast forward through his at bats when I'm watching the game on Tivo. Alex Cora, Dustan Mohr, J.T. Snow, Adam Stern and Willie Harris are all batting .200 or less. The Red Sox should create a new reality TV show to fill out their bench. The Red Sox have been very good defensively except for Wily Mo Pena and Josh Bard. Bard's inability to catch the knuckle ball and Pena's inability to catch .. well, the ball .. have cost the Red Sox at least ten runs this season and possibly two Tim Wakefield starts. At this point in the season, I can't get too upset with Bard. But, if he doesn't improve quickly, he could ruin Tim Wakefield's season. The late inning relief, as I said, has been great. The middle relief has been much like the debacle of last season. Tavarez, Seanez and Riske (in one appearance) have given up close to one run per inning. Clement and DiNardo are all off to lousy starts and Wells is back on the DL (meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo is 4-0 with a 2.34 ERA and has even hit two homeruns). Coco Crisp's injury has had a devastating impact on the offensive production.

Player of the Week: It is hard to choose anyone this week. I guess it comes down to Mike Lowell (10 for 23, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and Jon Papelbon (three more scoreless innings and two saves). Papelbon saved both Sox wins this week, so I'll give it to the rookie.

Player of the Month: There were not many strong candidates this month. Kevin Youkilis (.299 avg, .406 OBP, 1 HR, 14 RBI) is off to a good start, as is David Ortiz (.278, 10 HR, 20 RBI). Curt Schilling looks healthy after a miserable 2005. He's 4-1 with 2.88 ERA and leads the AL in strikeouts. The clear cut winner, however, is Jonathan Papelbon. All Jonathan did in the month of April was convert all ten of his save opportunities while not allowing a run in 14 1/3 innings of work. His strikeout to HIT ratio was 2:1 (his K to BB ratio was 7:1). Most importantly, Papelbon closed out 10 of the Red Sox 14 wins, four of which were one run saves. Including the playoffs last year, Papelbon has not surrendered a run in his last 26 2/3 innings. Amazing.

April 23, 2006

The Red Sox finished off a 4-3 week with a victory on Sunday in Toronto. The Red Sox are 10-3 this season against Texas, Baltimore, Seattle and Tampa Bay but are only 2-4 against the Blue Jays. Based on what I have seen so far, I believe that the Jays will be in the AL East race all season. They have a very potent lineup, a top notch closer in B.J Ryan, a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation with Halladay and Burnett and a decent 3-4 with Lilly and Chacin. However, Burnett is already on the DL and Halladay is coming off a serious injury so like the Sox, injuries could be a big factor this season for the Jays.

What is it with the Blue Jays fans and the non-stop booing? When the Sox were at bat, just about every pitch that was called a ball drew boos from the Blue Jay fans. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. These are the same people who boo the Star Spangled Banner when American sports teams visit Canada. Whining and booing has replaced hockey as Canada's national pastime.

Wouldn't it be great to have the QuesTec umpire stats in the box scores? If a pitcher gives up eight runs, everybody will know it. If a home plate umpire is wrong 30% of the time, there is no record of it. QuesTec is not perfect, but I think if the data was published we'd have a better understanding of who the best umpires are. On Friday night, it really seemed to me that the strike zone was much larger for Blue Jay pitchers than Sox pitchers. I love to know if my impression was correct.

I think the Red Sox actually cost themselves a win on Friday by scoring two runs and remaining at bat for a long time in the top of the eighth inning. Josh Beckett was forced to sit for probably 20-30 minutes between innings and was not the same pitcher when he returned in the bottom of the eighth. It is always difficult for a pitcher to wait through a long inning but it is particularly difficult when that long inning occurs late in the game. I can't blame Francona for leaving Beckett in the game though. He had only thrown 78 pitches and the four run lead seemed pretty safe. Hopefully, that will be the last time this year that the Sox blow a four run lead in the final three innings.

I'm very happy that the Red Sox are not wearing those silly X-men-like batting helmets like so many major league teams. The Mets, Orioles, Cubs and Dodgers are among the ugly-helmet teams. HERE is an example. Who in the world thought that these would look good? Do they serve a purpose?

The post-steroids era isn't exactly what we thought it would be. Eleven players already have eight homeruns including David Ortiz. Albert Pujols has 8 HR and 26 RBI though 18 games. The Tigers and Reds already have 30-plus homers.

There wasn't a clear-cut Red Sox Player of the Week this week. Curt Schilling had a great start against the Devil Rays to run his record to 4-0. Jon Papelbon added two more saves and another 4 1/3 scoreless innings (11 1/3 for the season). Mark Loretta had the biggest hit of the week when he homered to win the Patriots Day game. Manny's bat came alive this week (.375, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs) and Kevin Youkilis continued his great start (.367, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6 runs). Trot Nixon batted .455 this week but only drove in two runs and scored once. In a close race, the winner is:

Player of the Week -- David Ortiz, who batted only .267 this week but hit four homers, drove in seven runs and scored eight times. Big Papi could be on his way to an even bigger season than last year.

April 16, 2006

Pitching continues to be the story for the Red Sox. Schilling, Wakefield, Beckett, Timlin and Papelbon were outstanding in the first three games of the Seattle series. Sox pitchers gave up only six runs (four earned) in those three games. In reality, only one of those runs was the fault of a Sox pitcher. The three runs surrendered by Wakefield on Saturday were the result of two passed balls by Josh Bard and an outfield blunder by Wily Mo Pena. Wake deserved a complete game shutout. The two runs scored off Beckett on Sunday were also a result of Wily Mo's poor defense. Wakefield has had two good outings in a row and Schilling and Beckett are each 3-0 with ERAs under 1.70. Papelbon and Timlin have combined for 12 scoreless innings this season. Keith Foulke has given up two runs in his last five innings of work. However, those two runs were the fault of ... you guessed it, Wily Mo Pena.

The pitching has been great, but you can't say the same for the offense. The Sox lineup on Saturday did NOT include Varitek, Loretta, Lowell, Crisp or Nixon. With Ramirez mired in a big slump, it is going to be tough to score runs with that lineup. Even Big Papi looked lost this weekend at the plate. This will change soon, of course. Manny started with a slow two weeks last year before going on a homerun hitting binge. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. Trot Nixon is expected back tomorrow. That is great news for the Sox. Pena's hitting has been okay but he is absolultely lost in rightfield at Fenway.

David Wells health is certainly a major concern. The Arroyo trade made sense to me at the time, but seeing Wells struggle makes me wonder. It would be nice to have Arroyo in the rotation right now. If Wells doesn't get healthy or comes back but continues to be knocked around, the Sox will have a decision to make. Do they move Papelbon to the rotation, trade for a starter or bring someone up from AAA? The Papelbon part of that clearly depends a lot on Keith Foulke. If Foulke looks good, moving Papelbon to the rotation is probably an easy call. If Wells falters, Roger Clemens' name is bound to surface.

Player of the Week -- It's a pretty easy call this week. Josh Beckett was 2-0, giving up just two earned runs in 14 innings of work. He gave up one of those runs in the first inning of Monday's game and the other earned run was the fault of Wily Mo. His current ERA of 1.29 is the best in the AL.

April 9, 2006

It is difficult to find anything negative to say about the first week of the season. Just about everyone is playing well and the key players appear to be healthy (Coco's finger injury appears to be minor). Obviously, we can't judge this team based on a week of action but it is nice to get off to such a great start, especially on the road. Here's the good news:

• The rotation made five outstanding starts in six chances this week. Curt Schilling looks great and Tim Wakefield bounced back on Sunday after an awful performance in Texas. In the five wins, the starters had an ERA of 2.12.



• Jon Papelbon pitched four scoreless innings this week and recorded three saves in three chances. In two of those save opportunities, Papelbon needed to protect one run leads. It is nice to know that if Keith Foulke cannot return to his 2004 form, the Sox have someone who can handle the closer's role.



• Speaking of Foulke, he looked very good in one scoreless inning on Sunday. He also pitched a scoreless inning on Friday night.



• The offense looked pretty good this week. Friday's game was amazing. The Red Sox put 32 men on base via a hit, walk or hit batsmen. Trot Nixon did not have a great 2005 season so it is a good sign that he is off to a fast start in 2006 (.300 avg, 2 HR, 7 RBI). Red Sox fans are going to love Mark Loretta. He's on base all the time (12 times this week), sees a lot of pitches, moves runners along and rarely strikes out.



• The Sox picked up three games on the Yankees this week. The standings mean very little at this time of the year but it is always a good thing when the Red Sox gain three games on the Yankees in a single week. The games this week count just as much as the ones in September.

As for the bad news, both Riske and Seanez had bad outings last week. This isn't any reason for concern. One bad performance stands out more when it happens in the first week of the season. Mike Lowell had a homer this week but batted only .190. It is very early, but so far I am not impressed with Lowell's bat.

The Sox are well positioned to get off to a phenomenal start this season. Josh Beckett will start the first of three games against the Blue Jays this week at Fenway. After that, the Sox host Seattle for four games and Tampa Bay for three. The Mariners and Devil Rays lost 93 and 95 games last year, respectively.

Player of the Week -- Plenty of Red Sox had a great week but it really came down to Curt Schilling and Trot Nixon. I'm giving the Week One Player of the Week award to Curt Schilling. The Sox ace was 2-0 this week with an ERA of 1.93. He struck out nine and walked just three in 14 innings.

April 2, 2006

Opening Day is just twenty-four hours away. The Red Sox will open the 2006 schedule in the great state of Texas against the no so great Rangers. The three game series begins on Monday afternoon. Schilling, Wakefield and Beckett are expected to take the hill in those first three games. The Red Sox were 9-20 in Spring Training but as we all know, that means nothing. Wins and losses in the Grapefruit League are meaningless. How the players are performing individually in the Spring means a little more. The most encouraging stats of the spring were the numbers put up by the Red Sox 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup. Coco Crisp hit .431 in the Spring with seven extra base hits in 51 at bats. Mark Loretta batted .353, also in 51 official at bats. Kevin Youkilis hit only .234 in the spring but blasted four homers in 47 at bats. The only offensive numbers that jump out in a negative way are those of Alex Gonzalez, who batted .130. Pitching stats mean less than offensive numbers in Spring Training because pitchers are more concerned with how they are throwing than getting people out. The ERAs of Beckett (5.14), Schilling (6.75) and Wells (11.25) really don't concern me. One spring pitching line that impressed me, however, was Craig Hansen's 10 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 0 runs. Even in the Grapefruit League, you can't help but take notice when you see those numbers.

Few experts are picking the Red Sox to do much this season. Of the 19 writers on ESPN.com, only ten are predicting that the Red Sox will make the playoffs (five said they would win the AL East). None of the 19 are picking the Sox to go to the World Series (five picked the Yanks to win the AL and one chose Toronto). This is understandable given all of the question marks surrounding the Sox.

• Will Schilling and Beckett remain healthy through the season?
• Will Foulke be healthy at all?
• Will Mark Loretta bounce back?
• Will Coco Crisp be able to replace Johnny Damon's offense?
• Will Alex Gonzalez be an automatic out?
• Does Mike Lowell have anything left?
• Which Matt Clement will show up in 2006?
• Will the Red Sox produce any power from the first base position?
• Are Papelbon and Hansen ready to shine in the Major Leagues?
• Can Wily Mo Pena make enough contact to contribute to this team?
• Will David Wells and Manny Ramirez complain about not being traded and ruin the team's chemistry?
• Will Julian Tavarez go Chuck Norris on someone during a game and get suspended for a couple of months?

Here are numbers for the projected staters:

and the bullpen:

Basically, the Red Sox are hoping for the 2004 versions of Schilling and Foulke, the 2005 first half version of Matt Clement and the 2005 version of everyone else.

Please click HERE to read my comments on the 2006 lineup.

2006 MLB Predictions