October 1, 2006

It seems only fitting that the best Red Sox pitching performance of the year would occur in the final game of the season and be pitched by a 28-year-old rookie who had never won a major league game. Devern Hansack, the 14th pitcher to start a game for the Red Sox this season, pitched five innings of no-hit ball to blank the Orioles 9-0. The game was called after five innings because of rain. Despite the victory, the Sox finished in third place in the AL East, one game behind the Blue Jays.

Thank goodness for the Orioles and the National League. The Sox were an exceptional 31-5 this season against the O's and the NL, but only 55-71 against everyone else. The Sox were only 10-9 against Tampa Bay this season.

Some positive news to end the season:

• For the first time in several years, the Sox were able to take a good look at the young prospects in September. Kason Gabbard (24 years old) looked very good at times. He had a 3.51 ERA in 25 innings of work.



• Julian Tavarez was 3-0 as a starter. He gave up two runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.



• Keith Foulke did not give up a run in 11 1/3 innings in September.



• Mike Lowell hit his 20th homer on Sunday. He ended the season with a solid .284 average with 20 HR, 47 doubles and a triple (68 extra base hits).



• David Ortiz finished the season with a Red Sox single season record of 54 homeruns. Big Papi has 142 homers, 424 RBI and 328 runs in the past three seasons combined. He's been unreal.



• Wily Mo Pena finished the year with a .301 batting average. Unfortunately, he hit only 11 homers.



• Alex Gonzalez finished the season with 7 errors. Edgar Renteria had 30 last season.

Player of the Week: Devern Hansack, of course. His week: 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00. No hits, one walk, six strikeouts in five innings of work.

Player of the Month (September): Once again, David Ortiz. Big Papi batted .292 in September (plus a .480 on base percentage) with 7 homeruns, 16 RBIs and 15 runs.

September 25, 2006

Three straight losses have moved the Red Sox into third place in the American League East. Not that it really matters. The Red Sox will wrap up an extraordinarily difficult this week as they host Tampa Bay for two followed by Baltimore for three. David Ortiz whacked his 53rd homer on Sunday to add to his new Red Sox record. Unfortunately, it appears that Big Papi will not win the MVP award that almost certainly would be his if not for the time he missed with the heart concerns and the fact that the Sox disappeared from contention four weeks early this season.

Player of the Week: David Ortiz, who returned to form this week with four homers and five RBIs. He also batted .348 (8 for 23) and reached base 12 times in six games.

September 17, 2006

It's a shame that the Red Sox didn't win just two more games along the way. If they had, the upcoming series with the Wild Card leading Minnesota Twins would mean something. As it stands, even if the Sox sweep Minny this week they will be five games behind the Twins with nine games to play. If the Sox were five or six games behind, a sweep would keep them in contention. It's quite disheartening to be out of the race by the first week in September. Now I know how Royals fans feel. The only difference is that they feel it about a week into May every season.

Player of the Week: Mark Loretta, who was 9 for 28 this week (.321) with 4 runs and 3 RBIs. Mike Timlin was considered for his three saves but was roughed up for four runs in his outing on Tuesday so I went with Loretta.

September 11, 2006

Any glimmer of playoff hope for the Sox disappeared this week. After winning two in a row over the White Sox early last week, the Red Sox were at least part of the Wild Card discussion. The Wild Card fever was only temporary as the Sox quickly lost three more games in a row, two in painful fashion. In a way it is good that the Red Sox have no false playoff hopes. Now the Red Sox can play the young guys for the rest of the season. This will help their development down the line. I haven't decided whether to call the Sox the Pawston Red Sox or the Bostucket Red Sox. I think I like the former.

Player of the Week: Believe it or not, my choice is Julian Tavarez who won both of his starts this week. Tavarez was hardly spectacular -- he pitched 11 2/3 innings and gave up five runs -- but I can't even remember the last time a Sox pitcher won back to back starts so Julian gets the nod.

September 3, 2006

Things have gone from bad to worse to "are you kidding me?" for the Red Sox. By my count, 19 Red Sox are either on the DL or have missed games because of injury. Ironically enough, Curt Schilling has been one of the four or five healthiest Red Sox this season. The Red Sox actually posted a lineup with a 3-4-5 consisting of Mark Loretta, Kevin Youkilis and Eric Hinske last week. The starters in the first three games of the Toronto series were Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder and Kevin Jarvis. Worst of all is the fact two Red Sox were diagnosed with life-threatening health problems within days. The Red Sox have managed to pack about ten years of bad luck into a six week timespan. It has become surreal. I can't help but feel like the Red Sox are in year two of another 86 year stretch of bad luck.

It's one thing to see injuries. It's quite another to see two players leave the team for health problems that are potentially fatal. It appears that David Ortiz will be fine but anytime the heart is part of the equation, you can't help but be concerned. For Jon Lester, the news was much worse. Thankfully, Lester's cancer is treatable and there is every reason to believe that he will beat the disease. I think I speak for most Red Sox fans when I say that baseball just doesn't seem very important right now.

To make matters worse, several former Red Sox are performing well and making Theo Epstein and Company look bad. Freddy Sanchez, who was traded for Jeff Suppan in 2003, is leading the National League in batting average at .345. Bronson Arroyo is seventh in the National League in ERA and second in innings pitched. Josh Bard is batting .326 with 7 HR. Cla Meredith has an ERA of 0.84 in 32 innings of work. Bard and Meredith were traded for Doug Mirabelli. Derek Lowe has 13 wins and and ERA of 3.79. Johnny Damon is having a big year but I don't think anyone can fault Red Sox management for that. The Yankees financial advantage is the only reason why Damon is not still in a Red Sox uniform. The Josh Beckett trade looked like a steal at the time, but as of right now the Marlins appear to have made the better deal. Anibal Sanchez is 6-2 with a 3.22 ERA and Hanley Ramirez is batting .287 with 13 homers and 104 runs. I expect Beckett to bounce back next season but if I could trade Beckett for Sanchez and Ramirez right now, I probably would.

Player of the Week: The POW goes to Kyle Snyder who beat the Blue Jays on Friday night, 2-1. Snyder gave up no runs and two hits in seven innings of work. He struck out eight and walked only two.

Player of the Month for August: Manny Ramirez, who batted .378 (with a .500 on base pct) in August with 5 homers and 16 RBI. David Ortiz was a close second (.276, 10 HR, 16 RBI).

August 27, 2006

The Red Sox missed a huge opportunity this week to gain ground on the Yankees. The Yankees were 2-4 this week but so were the Red Sox. The Red Sox only glimmer of playoff hope comes from the fact that the Yankees are also a lousy baseball team right now. If you take away the sweep over the Red Sox, the Yankees are 6-10 since August 7th. The Angels scored 26 runs on 43 hits in their weekend series with the Monees.

The Red Sox blew another late inning lead on Saturday in Seattle. Here is a list of the games that the Sox have blown in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings since the game before the All Star break with the pitcher or pitchers who blew the lead in parentheses.

1. 7/9: The Sox led the White Sox 5-4 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and lost 6-5 in 19 innings (Papelbon).
2. 7/13: The Red Sox led the A's 3-1 through six innings and lost 5-4 in 11 innings (Hansen,Delcarmen).
3. 7/23: The Red Sox led the Mariners 7-5 through six innings and lost 9-8 (Delcarmen).
4. 8/6: The Sox led the D-Rays 6-2 though six innings and 6-4 through seven innings but lost 7-6 in 10 innings (Timlin, Papelbon).
5. 8/9: The Sox led the Royals 4-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth and lost (Papelbon).
6. 8/10: The Sox led the Royals 4-2 through seven innings and lost 5-4 (Schilling).
7. 8/16: The Red Sox led the Tigers 1-0 through six innings and lost 3-2 (Schilling).
8. 8/18: The Sox led the Yankees 10-7 through six innings and lost 14-11 (Hansen, Timlin).
9. 8/20: The Sox led the Yankees 5-4 with two outs in the ninth inning and lost 8-5 in 10 innings (Papelbon).
10. 8/26: The Red Sox led the Mariners 3-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth inning and lost 4-3 (Timlin).

Depressing.

Player of the Week: David Ortiz, who was 6 for 21 with 3 HR and 4 RBI.

August 21, 2006

Words can't really describe how bad the last eight days have been for the Boston Red Sox. The pitching in the past week has been so awful that I have actually longed for guys like Vaughn Eshelman, Erik Hanson, Rolando Arrojo and Rod Beck. The Red Sox have managed to lose in every conceivable way: they scored 11 and lost; they gave up two runs and lost; they lost a game that they led with two outs in the bottom of the ninth; they lost a game in which they had nine extra base hits but were 0 for 16 with runners in scoring position; they lost a one-run game in which the last Sox batter (Pena) was called out on a pitch a foot outside the strike zone. What made matters worse is that the two Yankees that really cost the Red Sox this weekend (Abreu and Damon) were two players that could very well be in a Red Sox uniform if the Yankees and Sox were in the same universe financially. No one should make excuses for the Red Sox. They absolutely stink right now. Their play is shameful. However, no Red Sox fan should accept any grief from the Yankee fans. The Yanks are gluttons whose success results only from their ability to spend money that no one else has (coupled with a lot of bloop hits). How many teams would love to have acquired Bobby Abreu? At least five or six teams could have offered more than the Yanks in terms of prospects but no one else could afford his 2007 contract.

Costly injuries, the growing pains of a young pitching staff, the failure of some key veterans and plain old bad luck have created a perfect storm that has just about knocked the Sox out of playoff contention. Four games in the Wild Card is far from insurmountable but those four games look like ten the way this pitching staff is throwing. If there is hope, it lies in the fact that David Wells is pitching well and that Keith Foulke made two solid appearances over the weekend. If (Big IF) the Sox can survive the West Coast trip and get Wakefield and Varitek back in early September, they could make a run. This assumes that Josh Beckett can find himself and at least one middle reliever can find some consistency. Normally, a West Coast trip is the last thing a slumping team wants, but in this case, I think it could be a good thing for the Sox. The long road trip may provide an opportunity for the team to regroup. They could of course lose seven of nine and be out of the race. I haven't entirely given up, but I am on the brink.

Player of the Week: I contemplated not naming a Player of the Week for this week. The team was putrid top to bottom and probably doesn't deserve any recognition. In the end, I decided to give the Player of the Week to David Wells. Wells won the only game in a devastating 1-7 week. He didn't even pitch that well on Wednesday against the Tigers (6 1/3 IP, 4 ER) but you can't help but be impressed when a rotund 43-year-old returns from multiple injuries to beat the best team in baseball.

August 13, 2006

The Red Sox turned things around over the weekend following one of the most dismal stretches in recent memory. The Sox were 3-7 against the Indians, Rays and Royals. Even with the sweep over the Orioles, Boston's 6-7 record over the past two weeks against some of the league's weakest teams is highly disappointing. The Sox should have gone 9-4 at worst against that crew. The good news is that the Yankees are equally terrible and now hold just a one game lead in the AL East as the two teams get closer to their five game showdown next weekend. That series could mean everything .. or nothing. As I've said before, I expect someone to come out of that winning three of five.

The bad news is everywhere. Josh Beckett simply cannot pitch well on a consistent basis. Jon Lester is still doing a decent job for a rookie but his last four starts have been far weaker than his first eight. The bullpen is an unmitigated disaster and even Jon Papelbon has been mediocre over the past eight days. The defense hasn't even been as sharp as it was earlier in the season. On the plus side, David Wells pitched well on Friday and was able to go seven innings. Doug Mirabelli has actually homered in each of his last three games and Wily Mo Pena has a seven game hitting streak which includes three homers. On Sunday, the Sox scored 11 runs without a single hit from Manny Ramirez (0 for 3) or David Ortiz (day off).

Player of the Week: Wily Mo Pena, who was 9 for 24 this week with 3 homers, 9 RBI and 7 runs. The Sox desperately miss Jason Varitek. The miss Trot Nixon a lot less.

August 6, 2006

Today's game was certainly the low point in the Red Sox season so far. The Red Sox got an unexpected solid start from Jason Johnson and took a 6-2 lead into the seventh but the bullpen again managed to squander it all and lose in extra innings. The fact that Jon Papelbon gave up a game-tying run to Dioner Navarro says it all. The previous two homers Paps surrendered were to Chase Utley and Jermaine Dye. That is understandable. But Dioner Navarro on an 0-2 pitch. The Sox are now playing in the Twilight Zone. To make matters worse, the Yankees keep winning and are now two games up in the AL East. The only bright spot is the fact that Boston has a week and a half to get its act together before the Yanks come to the Hub for a five game series beginning on the 18th.

Coco Crisp batted .387 this week with four stolen bases. Mark Loretta batted .353 with three doubles and a homer. Manny Ramirez batted .357 with 3 HR and 7 RBI and extended his hitting streak to 22 games.

Player of the Week: Who else? Big Papi. David Ortiz hit 5 homers and drove in 8 runs this week while batting .370. He added another walk-off homer on Monday night and almost single-handedly beat the D-Rays on Friday night. He also became the first Red Sox player to hit 40 homeruns in three consecutive seasons.

August 2, 2006

The Red Sox finally surrendered first place on Tuesday evening following another lousy performance by Jason Johnson. Why the Red Sox continue to let him start games is a mystery. Even Big Papi couldn't rescue the Sox on Tuesday night. with the exception of the the Ortiz game-winning homer, the past three days have been an absolute nightmare for the Sox. They lost starting position players to injury on consecutive days, the Yankees took over first place by percentage points and David Wells was shelled. The only positive I can take from this is that the Sox are not playing the Yankees or one of the Wild Card contenders. The Sox still have another couple of weeks to get things together before the big five-game Yankee series later this month.

Unfortunately, Jason Varitek will not be available for that series. His injury is devastating for the Sox. Varitek has not been hitting all season but his average is still 60 points better than Doug Mirabelli's. He's also a better defensive catcher and a team leader. I am less concerned with the Nixon injury. Trot's offense has been abysmal the past month. It's a good chance to see what Wily Mo is made of. Gabe Kapler is a great defensive player and decent with the bat.

When I look at the July statistics, it find it amazing that the Red Sox were able to go 15-12 for the month. Of the nine regulars in the lineup, only three had a July average of better than .255. Here's the list: Lowell .255, Loretta .253, Crisp .243, Youkilis .236, Varitek .231 and Nixon .187. This group produced very few homeruns and drive in few runs. On the other side of the coin are the three guys who are carrying the offense. Alex Gonzalez batted .300 or better for a second straight month (.325 in July with 3 HR). Manny Ramirez batted .340 with 9 HR and 29 RBI. He has been absolutely torrid since late April with the exception of one 0 for 18 streak. Then there is Big Papi. He batted .339 in July, had an OBP of .429, hit 14 homers and drove in 35 runs. Just imagine how many runs he would have driven in had Youkilis and Loretta had better months at the plate.

As far as the pitching goes, only one starter (excluding Gabbard) had a July ERA of less than 4.50 (that was Lester at 3.82). Schilling and Beckett had July ERAs of 4.74 and 5.06, respectively. The bullpen was okay early in the month but has been terrible of late. The July bullpen ERAs do not look as bad as I thought they would: Papelbon 0.71, Seanez 0.87, DelCarmen 3.52, Hansen 4.20, Tavarez 4.26, Timlin 5.56. DelCarmen has been solid for the most part and it looks like Seanez has his act together. Timlin concerns me. Age and/or injuries might be creeping up on him.

Some Red Sox fans are angry that Theo and Company did not make any trades at the deadline this year. It would have been great pick up a starter that would improve the team but there really wasn't anyone out there that was available for a reasonable price. I commend Theo for not trading away a player like Lester, Hansen or DelCarmen to pick up some .500 journeyman like Corey Lidle or a washed up Greg Maddux. The Sox have been burned so many times (most recently Suppan for Freddy Garcia). I did not want to see it happen again. To get a superstar like Andruw Jones, Barry Zito, Dontrelle Willis or alike, it would be worth giving up a Hansen or DelCarmen and maybe a Lester but those guys weren't really on the trading block unless their teams were overwhelmed. It's disappointing that the Yanks picked up Abreu for so little in return but what can you do? If anything, I was surprised that the Red Sox were not able to get another middle reliever. That could still happen in August. I am happy that they didn't trade any pieces of their young pitching puzzle. We just need to hope that Wakefield and/or Wells are healthy soon.

Player of the Month - July: Jon Papelbon had another great month as did Ramirez and Gonzalez but the runaway Player of the month is David Americo Ortiz. Once again, .339, 14 HR, 36 RBI in a month where two-thirds of the lineup was in a slump. Add to that two more game-winning "walk off" hits. If Ortiz doesn't win the MVP this year, there should be an investigation.

July 30, 2006

The Red Sox continue to play mediocre baseball. Since a 14-1 stretch against the National League, the Sox weekly won/loss records have been as follows: 3-4, 1-3, 5-2, 3-3. Add it up and you have a record of 12-12 over the past four weeks. Thanks to that soft stretch, the Yankees are only one-half game behind the Sox in the AL East. The Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox and Twins are separated by just two games and it looks like only two of those four teams will reach the playoffs. Over the next 17 days, the Sox will play ten home games and six road games. The two road series will be played against the Devil Rays and Royals. The home series will be against the Indians, Orioles and Tigers. Following those games, Boston plays a five game series at Fenway with the Yankees. The soft schedule gives the Sox a great opportunity to expand their lead in the AL East. As tightly contested as the Sox-Yanks series has been, I fully that series in mid-August be 3-2 in favor of someone.

Player of the Week: Big Papi of course. David Ortiz was 9 for 27 this week (.333) with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 runs and another walk off hit. The man is carrying this team right now.

July 23, 2006

This would have been a great week had the Sox pulled out Sunday's game. It is ironic that the Red Sox, who have the best in the majors and have set the major league record for most consecutive errorless games, lost in large part because of one of the worst defensive plays I have ever seen. Adrian Beltre's inside the park homer in the eighth inning had to be seen to be believed. Between Coco's misjump, Manny whacking the ball back toward the fence and Coco's impossibly horrid throw to the infield, the Sox looked more like the Bad News Bears than a team that could break the major league record for fewest errors in a full season. Beltre's unconventional homer came with two outs and Timlin retired the next batter so it is more than likely that play cost Boston the game. It is hard to believe that a team who has a setup man with a 2.29 ERA (prior to today) and a closer with an 0.54 ERA could cough up so wins in the late innings, but they have.

All things considered, I was very impressed with Kason Gabbard on Saturday. He could have very easily won the game. All five of Seattle's runs were a fluke of sorts. A weak infield dribbler that died near the third base line led to Seattle's first two runs, a bad call and an error caused the third run to score (charged to Gabbard) and a popup that managed to land between Crisp and Gonzalez led to the fourth and fifth runs (charged to Tavarez).

The starting pitching has been pretty solid over the past nine days. During that time, the Red Sox have three shutouts (the first three of the season) and the starters' ERA is 2.88 (not including Tim Wakefield's injury-plagued start on Monday). That's excellent when you consider that three of those eight games were started by rookies and two were started by a guy with only 22 career starts.

Player of the Week: Jon Lester had a chance to grab the POW award with a win today but he really did not pitch well after a brilliant effort on Tuesday. This week's award goes to Josh Beckett who tossed eight great innings on Wednesday (0 runs, 4 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts). The runner-up is Jon Papelbon, who saved three consecutive one-run wins (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday).

July 16, 2006

What a miserable eight days for the Red Sox. Just a week ago, the Red Sox were one out away from taking a four game lead in the AL East to the All Star break. After Two heartbreaking losses, two blowout losses and a Yankee sweep over Chicago, the Sox find themselves just one half game in front in the division. I felt there was a very good chance the Red Sox could gain a game and a half between Thursday and Sunday. They actually lost two and half games in the standings. Ironically, Jermaine Dye of the White Sox, who homered with two outs in the ninth against Papelbon last Sunday, was the tying run when he struckout today to end the game against the Yankees.

Don't let the 8-1 score today fool you. The Red Sox could have easily won 1-0 today. They key pitch of the game came in the fifth inning when Kyle Snyder hit Adam Melhuse (a .227 hitter in the back). This loaded the bases with no outs. The next batter walked followed by two strikeouts. So, if Melhuse is retired (or bunts), there is a good chance that Snyder gets out of the inning without giving up a run (Oakland scored five that inning). Tavarez gave up three runs in the ninth but had the Sox been ahead 1-0, Papelbon would have of course come in.

Player of the Week: This is a pretty easy call. Curt Schilling was sensational on Saturday night (7 IP, 2 hits, 9 K's, 1 BB). Curt is now 11-3 and very much in the running for the AL Cy Young award.

July 12, 2006

Technically, the All Star break is not the midpoint of the season (the Red Sox have played 86 games) but for all intents and purposes, Thursday begins the second half of the season. Despite a disappointing final week of the first half, the Red Sox are in a great position to win the American League East this year. Boston is currently 53-33 (on pace for a 100-62 record), three games ahead of New York in the AL East. The Red Sox have the added advantage of more home games in the second half than their AL East rivals. The Red Sox play 44 of their final 76 games at Fenway (+12) as compared to 38 home/38 road for the Yankees and 35/39 for the Blue Jays. The Sox are (knock on wood) fairly healthy. They desperately need a healthy David Wells and a few players are banged up, but all things considered Boston is in much better shape than New York. Of the Red Sox next 21 games, 15 are at home and all the games are against the AL West and the two bottom feeders in the AL Central (KC and Cleveland). The Yankees and Jays will play seven times during this time. Needless to say, this is a great opportunity for the Red Sox to put some space between themselves and the rest of the AL East. Here's a brief first half recap and a look ahead to the second half:

First Half Surprises (the Good Kind)

• Mike Lowell -- Not was expected from Lowell after a .236, 8 HR season in 2005. He's bounced back beyond anyone's hopes. Lowell is batting .307 and is on pace for a 21 HR, 87 RBI, 58 double season. Lowell has also played gold glove quality defense (only four errors).



• Jon Papelbon -- Most Sox fans felt that Papelbon would be a big contributor this season but I don't think anyone was expecting the rookie to be the most dominant closer in baseball. Papelbon's ERA checks in at 0.59 (46 innings). With a little luck, Papelbon's ERA could be 0.00. He's struck out 47 batters against only 8 walks (a 6:1 ratio). He has converted 26 of 29 save chances (in seven of those cases he saved one-run leads). I can't imagine where the Sox would be without him.



• Trot Nixon -- Even with the nightmarish 0 for 9 effort on Sunday, Nixon is batting .311 with a .415 on base percentage. The .311 is 36 points better than last season. The .415 is 58 points better than last season and 19 points better than Nixon's career best (2003).



• Kevin Youkilis -- I am only slightly surprised to see Kevin Youkilis' outstanding offensive numbers. Youk is batting .297 with an on base percentage of .407. He's on pace for 19 homers and 41 doubles. These numbers are more or less what I was hoping for from the so-called "Greek God of Walks" (he's on a pace for over 100 of those). What has been surprising is how quickly Youkilis has become an outstanding defensive first baseman.



• The Defense -- There was no doubt that the Sox would be much-improved defensively this season but no one could have predicted that they would set a major league record for the most consecutive games without an error (17). The Red Sox are on pace to make only 57 errors this season which would be also be a major league record. Alex Gonzalez has made only two errors this season (if I'm not mistaken, Edgar Renteria had 17 at the All Star break last season).

First Half Disappointments

• The Bullpen -- ERA-wise, the bullpen has been better than last season but most of that can be attributed to Jonathan Papelbon. Timlin has been solid as usual but the middle relief has ranged between mediocre and downright bad. Keith Foulke went to the DL with a 5.63 ERA. Rudy Seanez starts the second half with an ERA of 4.86 (compared to 2.74, 3.33 and 2.69 from 2003-2005). Julian Tavrez has been pitching better of late but his ERA still stands at 4.56 (3.66, 2.38 and 3.43 from 2003-2005). Their lack of success doesn't make much sense.



• Jason Varitek -- Jason Varitek is really struggling at the plate. His batting average has slipped to .232 (he's a .272 career hitter). Tek's 9 homers put him pretty close to his usual pace but his 10 doubles are well below his usual pace.



• Matt Clement -- Clement has some good physical tools but he does not appear to have the mental makeup to be a successful big league pitcher. Clement's ERA expanded to 6.61 before he went on the disabled list about a month ago. After a great first half last year (10-2, 3.85), Clement was 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA in the second half.



• The Fifth Starter -- David Wells was piching very well when he was struck by the ball in the fifth inning of a May 26th game. Wells had been out of the rotation since April 12th. It is still hard to predict when (or if) Wells will return. Losing Wells has been a disaster for the Sox. Kyle Snyder, Lenny DiNardo, David Pauley and Jason Johnson have a combined 8.08 ERA in 11 combined starts. What's worse, Bronson Arroyo is a candidate for the NL Cy Young award. On the plus side, rookie Jon Lester is 4-0 with an ERA of 3.06 in six starts so it looks like four spots in the rotation are in good shape.



• Performance Against Toronto -- The Red Sox are 4-7 against the Jays this year (49-26 against the rest of the league). Three of those losses were by one run. The Sox are 5-5 against the Yankees which is no shock at all considering how competitive the teams have been since 2003.

Hopes for the Second Half

• Fewer Gopher Balls for Josh Beckett -- Beckett's record of 11-4 is right on line with what I had hoped for. I don't think anyone could be upset with 11-4. However, it concerns me that Beckett is giving up so many homeruns this season. The Sox righthander has surrendered 26 longballs in only 110 innings of work. This is nearly three times his rate for 2004 and 2005. Beckett's strikeout to walk ratio and opponent batting average is similar to 2004-05.



• More Offense from the Catchers -- Not only has Varitek struggled but so has Doug Mirabelli. Doug's .175 average is 61 points lower than his career average.



• One More Starter -- The Red Sox really need to figure out how to find one more starter. A healthy David Wells would be nice but I'm not sure it is realistic. I love the way Jon Lester is pitching and I expect him to be in the rotation for the rest of the year (and for many years to come), but I'm not sure the Red Sox want him starting a Game 4 in the playoffs. Jason Schmidt, Greg Maddux, Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis are all rumored to be available for the right price.



• Consistency in the Pen -- There is no reason why the Red Sox middle relief should perform as badly in the second half as they did in the first half. They key will be whether or not Tavarez and Seanez will revert to their solid pitching of the past few years. I am a little nervous with Javier Lopez being the only lefty in the bullpen. He has a career ERA of 6.05 (mostly in Colorado). Lefties batted .246 against him between 2003 and 2005. This isn't great for a lefty specialist. I expect the Sox to add a lefthanded reliever sometime prior to the trading deadline.



• An MVP for Big Papi -- David Ortiz has raised his average to .278 and is on pace for a 58 HR, 164 RBI, 122 runs scored season. This puts Ortiz in a decent position to break Roger Maris' single season record for homeruns by a player not juiced up on steroids. Only 12 players (and none since 1938) have driven in more than 165 runs in a single season. If Big Papi raises his average a bit, ends the season in the neighborhood of 55 HR/160 RBI, adds another walk off or two and the Red Sox win the AL East, I cannot imagine that he will not take home the MVP trophy. How good has he been? Since the All Star break last year, David has 57 HR, 160 RBIs and 121 runs scored (not to mention 113 walks).

MVP and Cy Young Races

• Jon Papelbon and Curt Schilling are both candidates for the Cy Young. Closers rarely get the nod but if Papelbon can save 50 games and keep his ERA in the 0.59 range that it is now, he has a chance. Schilling will need to lower his 3.60 ERA and win 20 games (he's on pace for 19). The front runners right now would have to be Mike Mussins (10-3, 3.24), Johan Santana (9-5, 2.95) and Roy Halladay (12-2, 2.92) but Justin Verlander, Scott Kazmir, Jose Contreras and Schilling all have at least 9 wins and an ERA at or below 3.60. My prediction: Roy Halladay.



• The MVP race is just as hotly contested. Manny Ramirez is putting up MVP-type numbers. Dye, Thome and Konerko will split the Chicago vote. Derek Jeter doesn't have the homers but he's carried the Yankees with a .345 average. Like Jeter, Joe Mauer doesn't hit many longballs but he's batting .378. Justin Morneau, Vernon Wells and Ichiro are also putting up nice numbers on competitive teams. My prediction: David Ortiz.