October 1, 2006

It seems only fitting that the best Red Sox pitching performance of the year would occur in the final game of the season and be pitched by a 28-year-old rookie who had never won a major league game. Devern Hansack, the 14th pitcher to start a game for the Red Sox this season, pitched five innings of no-hit ball to blank the Orioles 9-0. The game was called after five innings because of rain. Despite the victory, the Sox finished in third place in the AL East, one game behind the Blue Jays.

Thank goodness for the Orioles and the National League. The Sox were an exceptional 31-5 this season against the O's and the NL, but only 55-71 against everyone else. The Sox were only 10-9 against Tampa Bay this season.

Some positive news to end the season:

• For the first time in several years, the Sox were able to take a good look at the young prospects in September. Kason Gabbard (24 years old) looked very good at times. He had a 3.51 ERA in 25 innings of work.



• Julian Tavarez was 3-0 as a starter. He gave up two runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.



• Keith Foulke did not give up a run in 11 1/3 innings in September.



• Mike Lowell hit his 20th homer on Sunday. He ended the season with a solid .284 average with 20 HR, 47 doubles and a triple (68 extra base hits).



• David Ortiz finished the season with a Red Sox single season record of 54 homeruns. Big Papi has 142 homers, 424 RBI and 328 runs in the past three seasons combined. He's been unreal.



• Wily Mo Pena finished the year with a .301 batting average. Unfortunately, he hit only 11 homers.



• Alex Gonzalez finished the season with 7 errors. Edgar Renteria had 30 last season.

Player of the Week: Devern Hansack, of course. His week: 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00. No hits, one walk, six strikeouts in five innings of work.

Player of the Month (September): Once again, David Ortiz. Big Papi batted .292 in September (plus a .480 on base percentage) with 7 homeruns, 16 RBIs and 15 runs.

September 25, 2006

Three straight losses have moved the Red Sox into third place in the American League East. Not that it really matters. The Red Sox will wrap up an extraordinarily difficult this week as they host Tampa Bay for two followed by Baltimore for three. David Ortiz whacked his 53rd homer on Sunday to add to his new Red Sox record. Unfortunately, it appears that Big Papi will not win the MVP award that almost certainly would be his if not for the time he missed with the heart concerns and the fact that the Sox disappeared from contention four weeks early this season.

Player of the Week: David Ortiz, who returned to form this week with four homers and five RBIs. He also batted .348 (8 for 23) and reached base 12 times in six games.

September 17, 2006

It's a shame that the Red Sox didn't win just two more games along the way. If they had, the upcoming series with the Wild Card leading Minnesota Twins would mean something. As it stands, even if the Sox sweep Minny this week they will be five games behind the Twins with nine games to play. If the Sox were five or six games behind, a sweep would keep them in contention. It's quite disheartening to be out of the race by the first week in September. Now I know how Royals fans feel. The only difference is that they feel it about a week into May every season.

Player of the Week: Mark Loretta, who was 9 for 28 this week (.321) with 4 runs and 3 RBIs. Mike Timlin was considered for his three saves but was roughed up for four runs in his outing on Tuesday so I went with Loretta.

September 11, 2006

Any glimmer of playoff hope for the Sox disappeared this week. After winning two in a row over the White Sox early last week, the Red Sox were at least part of the Wild Card discussion. The Wild Card fever was only temporary as the Sox quickly lost three more games in a row, two in painful fashion. In a way it is good that the Red Sox have no false playoff hopes. Now the Red Sox can play the young guys for the rest of the season. This will help their development down the line. I haven't decided whether to call the Sox the Pawston Red Sox or the Bostucket Red Sox. I think I like the former.

Player of the Week: Believe it or not, my choice is Julian Tavarez who won both of his starts this week. Tavarez was hardly spectacular -- he pitched 11 2/3 innings and gave up five runs -- but I can't even remember the last time a Sox pitcher won back to back starts so Julian gets the nod.

September 3, 2006

Things have gone from bad to worse to "are you kidding me?" for the Red Sox. By my count, 19 Red Sox are either on the DL or have missed games because of injury. Ironically enough, Curt Schilling has been one of the four or five healthiest Red Sox this season. The Red Sox actually posted a lineup with a 3-4-5 consisting of Mark Loretta, Kevin Youkilis and Eric Hinske last week. The starters in the first three games of the Toronto series were Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder and Kevin Jarvis. Worst of all is the fact two Red Sox were diagnosed with life-threatening health problems within days. The Red Sox have managed to pack about ten years of bad luck into a six week timespan. It has become surreal. I can't help but feel like the Red Sox are in year two of another 86 year stretch of bad luck.

It's one thing to see injuries. It's quite another to see two players leave the team for health problems that are potentially fatal. It appears that David Ortiz will be fine but anytime the heart is part of the equation, you can't help but be concerned. For Jon Lester, the news was much worse. Thankfully, Lester's cancer is treatable and there is every reason to believe that he will beat the disease. I think I speak for most Red Sox fans when I say that baseball just doesn't seem very important right now.

To make matters worse, several former Red Sox are performing well and making Theo Epstein and Company look bad. Freddy Sanchez, who was traded for Jeff Suppan in 2003, is leading the National League in batting average at .345. Bronson Arroyo is seventh in the National League in ERA and second in innings pitched. Josh Bard is batting .326 with 7 HR. Cla Meredith has an ERA of 0.84 in 32 innings of work. Bard and Meredith were traded for Doug Mirabelli. Derek Lowe has 13 wins and and ERA of 3.79. Johnny Damon is having a big year but I don't think anyone can fault Red Sox management for that. The Yankees financial advantage is the only reason why Damon is not still in a Red Sox uniform. The Josh Beckett trade looked like a steal at the time, but as of right now the Marlins appear to have made the better deal. Anibal Sanchez is 6-2 with a 3.22 ERA and Hanley Ramirez is batting .287 with 13 homers and 104 runs. I expect Beckett to bounce back next season but if I could trade Beckett for Sanchez and Ramirez right now, I probably would.

Player of the Week: The POW goes to Kyle Snyder who beat the Blue Jays on Friday night, 2-1. Snyder gave up no runs and two hits in seven innings of work. He struck out eight and walked only two.

Player of the Month for August: Manny Ramirez, who batted .378 (with a .500 on base pct) in August with 5 homers and 16 RBI. David Ortiz was a close second (.276, 10 HR, 16 RBI).

August 27, 2006

The Red Sox missed a huge opportunity this week to gain ground on the Yankees. The Yankees were 2-4 this week but so were the Red Sox. The Red Sox only glimmer of playoff hope comes from the fact that the Yankees are also a lousy baseball team right now. If you take away the sweep over the Red Sox, the Yankees are 6-10 since August 7th. The Angels scored 26 runs on 43 hits in their weekend series with the Monees.

The Red Sox blew another late inning lead on Saturday in Seattle. Here is a list of the games that the Sox have blown in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings since the game before the All Star break with the pitcher or pitchers who blew the lead in parentheses.

1. 7/9: The Sox led the White Sox 5-4 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and lost 6-5 in 19 innings (Papelbon).
2. 7/13: The Red Sox led the A's 3-1 through six innings and lost 5-4 in 11 innings (Hansen,Delcarmen).
3. 7/23: The Red Sox led the Mariners 7-5 through six innings and lost 9-8 (Delcarmen).
4. 8/6: The Sox led the D-Rays 6-2 though six innings and 6-4 through seven innings but lost 7-6 in 10 innings (Timlin, Papelbon).
5. 8/9: The Sox led the Royals 4-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth and lost (Papelbon).
6. 8/10: The Sox led the Royals 4-2 through seven innings and lost 5-4 (Schilling).
7. 8/16: The Red Sox led the Tigers 1-0 through six innings and lost 3-2 (Schilling).
8. 8/18: The Sox led the Yankees 10-7 through six innings and lost 14-11 (Hansen, Timlin).
9. 8/20: The Sox led the Yankees 5-4 with two outs in the ninth inning and lost 8-5 in 10 innings (Papelbon).
10. 8/26: The Red Sox led the Mariners 3-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth inning and lost 4-3 (Timlin).

Depressing.

Player of the Week: David Ortiz, who was 6 for 21 with 3 HR and 4 RBI.

August 21, 2006

Words can't really describe how bad the last eight days have been for the Boston Red Sox. The pitching in the past week has been so awful that I have actually longed for guys like Vaughn Eshelman, Erik Hanson, Rolando Arrojo and Rod Beck. The Red Sox have managed to lose in every conceivable way: they scored 11 and lost; they gave up two runs and lost; they lost a game that they led with two outs in the bottom of the ninth; they lost a game in which they had nine extra base hits but were 0 for 16 with runners in scoring position; they lost a one-run game in which the last Sox batter (Pena) was called out on a pitch a foot outside the strike zone. What made matters worse is that the two Yankees that really cost the Red Sox this weekend (Abreu and Damon) were two players that could very well be in a Red Sox uniform if the Yankees and Sox were in the same universe financially. No one should make excuses for the Red Sox. They absolutely stink right now. Their play is shameful. However, no Red Sox fan should accept any grief from the Yankee fans. The Yanks are gluttons whose success results only from their ability to spend money that no one else has (coupled with a lot of bloop hits). How many teams would love to have acquired Bobby Abreu? At least five or six teams could have offered more than the Yanks in terms of prospects but no one else could afford his 2007 contract.

Costly injuries, the growing pains of a young pitching staff, the failure of some key veterans and plain old bad luck have created a perfect storm that has just about knocked the Sox out of playoff contention. Four games in the Wild Card is far from insurmountable but those four games look like ten the way this pitching staff is throwing. If there is hope, it lies in the fact that David Wells is pitching well and that Keith Foulke made two solid appearances over the weekend. If (Big IF) the Sox can survive the West Coast trip and get Wakefield and Varitek back in early September, they could make a run. This assumes that Josh Beckett can find himself and at least one middle reliever can find some consistency. Normally, a West Coast trip is the last thing a slumping team wants, but in this case, I think it could be a good thing for the Sox. The long road trip may provide an opportunity for the team to regroup. They could of course lose seven of nine and be out of the race. I haven't entirely given up, but I am on the brink.

Player of the Week: I contemplated not naming a Player of the Week for this week. The team was putrid top to bottom and probably doesn't deserve any recognition. In the end, I decided to give the Player of the Week to David Wells. Wells won the only game in a devastating 1-7 week. He didn't even pitch that well on Wednesday against the Tigers (6 1/3 IP, 4 ER) but you can't help but be impressed when a rotund 43-year-old returns from multiple injuries to beat the best team in baseball.

August 13, 2006

The Red Sox turned things around over the weekend following one of the most dismal stretches in recent memory. The Sox were 3-7 against the Indians, Rays and Royals. Even with the sweep over the Orioles, Boston's 6-7 record over the past two weeks against some of the league's weakest teams is highly disappointing. The Sox should have gone 9-4 at worst against that crew. The good news is that the Yankees are equally terrible and now hold just a one game lead in the AL East as the two teams get closer to their five game showdown next weekend. That series could mean everything .. or nothing. As I've said before, I expect someone to come out of that winning three of five.

The bad news is everywhere. Josh Beckett simply cannot pitch well on a consistent basis. Jon Lester is still doing a decent job for a rookie but his last four starts have been far weaker than his first eight. The bullpen is an unmitigated disaster and even Jon Papelbon has been mediocre over the past eight days. The defense hasn't even been as sharp as it was earlier in the season. On the plus side, David Wells pitched well on Friday and was able to go seven innings. Doug Mirabelli has actually homered in each of his last three games and Wily Mo Pena has a seven game hitting streak which includes three homers. On Sunday, the Sox scored 11 runs without a single hit from Manny Ramirez (0 for 3) or David Ortiz (day off).

Player of the Week: Wily Mo Pena, who was 9 for 24 this week with 3 homers, 9 RBI and 7 runs. The Sox desperately miss Jason Varitek. The miss Trot Nixon a lot less.

August 6, 2006

Today's game was certainly the low point in the Red Sox season so far. The Red Sox got an unexpected solid start from Jason Johnson and took a 6-2 lead into the seventh but the bullpen again managed to squander it all and lose in extra innings. The fact that Jon Papelbon gave up a game-tying run to Dioner Navarro says it all. The previous two homers Paps surrendered were to Chase Utley and Jermaine Dye. That is understandable. But Dioner Navarro on an 0-2 pitch. The Sox are now playing in the Twilight Zone. To make matters worse, the Yankees keep winning and are now two games up in the AL East. The only bright spot is the fact that Boston has a week and a half to get its act together before the Yanks come to the Hub for a five game series beginning on the 18th.

Coco Crisp batted .387 this week with four stolen bases. Mark Loretta batted .353 with three doubles and a homer. Manny Ramirez batted .357 with 3 HR and 7 RBI and extended his hitting streak to 22 games.

Player of the Week: Who else? Big Papi. David Ortiz hit 5 homers and drove in 8 runs this week while batting .370. He added another walk-off homer on Monday night and almost single-handedly beat the D-Rays on Friday night. He also became the first Red Sox player to hit 40 homeruns in three consecutive seasons.

August 2, 2006

The Red Sox finally surrendered first place on Tuesday evening following another lousy performance by Jason Johnson. Why the Red Sox continue to let him start games is a mystery. Even Big Papi couldn't rescue the Sox on Tuesday night. with the exception of the the Ortiz game-winning homer, the past three days have been an absolute nightmare for the Sox. They lost starting position players to injury on consecutive days, the Yankees took over first place by percentage points and David Wells was shelled. The only positive I can take from this is that the Sox are not playing the Yankees or one of the Wild Card contenders. The Sox still have another couple of weeks to get things together before the big five-game Yankee series later this month.

Unfortunately, Jason Varitek will not be available for that series. His injury is devastating for the Sox. Varitek has not been hitting all season but his average is still 60 points better than Doug Mirabelli's. He's also a better defensive catcher and a team leader. I am less concerned with the Nixon injury. Trot's offense has been abysmal the past month. It's a good chance to see what Wily Mo is made of. Gabe Kapler is a great defensive player and decent with the bat.

When I look at the July statistics, it find it amazing that the Red Sox were able to go 15-12 for the month. Of the nine regulars in the lineup, only three had a July average of better than .255. Here's the list: Lowell .255, Loretta .253, Crisp .243, Youkilis .236, Varitek .231 and Nixon .187. This group produced very few homeruns and drive in few runs. On the other side of the coin are the three guys who are carrying the offense. Alex Gonzalez batted .300 or better for a second straight month (.325 in July with 3 HR). Manny Ramirez batted .340 with 9 HR and 29 RBI. He has been absolutely torrid since late April with the exception of one 0 for 18 streak. Then there is Big Papi. He batted .339 in July, had an OBP of .429, hit 14 homers and drove in 35 runs. Just imagine how many runs he would have driven in had Youkilis and Loretta had better months at the plate.

As far as the pitching goes, only one starter (excluding Gabbard) had a July ERA of less than 4.50 (that was Lester at 3.82). Schilling and Beckett had July ERAs of 4.74 and 5.06, respectively. The bullpen was okay early in the month but has been terrible of late. The July bullpen ERAs do not look as bad as I thought they would: Papelbon 0.71, Seanez 0.87, DelCarmen 3.52, Hansen 4.20, Tavarez 4.26, Timlin 5.56. DelCarmen has been solid for the most part and it looks like Seanez has his act together. Timlin concerns me. Age and/or injuries might be creeping up on him.

Some Red Sox fans are angry that Theo and Company did not make any trades at the deadline this year. It would have been great pick up a starter that would improve the team but there really wasn't anyone out there that was available for a reasonable price. I commend Theo for not trading away a player like Lester, Hansen or DelCarmen to pick up some .500 journeyman like Corey Lidle or a washed up Greg Maddux. The Sox have been burned so many times (most recently Suppan for Freddy Garcia). I did not want to see it happen again. To get a superstar like Andruw Jones, Barry Zito, Dontrelle Willis or alike, it would be worth giving up a Hansen or DelCarmen and maybe a Lester but those guys weren't really on the trading block unless their teams were overwhelmed. It's disappointing that the Yanks picked up Abreu for so little in return but what can you do? If anything, I was surprised that the Red Sox were not able to get another middle reliever. That could still happen in August. I am happy that they didn't trade any pieces of their young pitching puzzle. We just need to hope that Wakefield and/or Wells are healthy soon.

Player of the Month - July: Jon Papelbon had another great month as did Ramirez and Gonzalez but the runaway Player of the month is David Americo Ortiz. Once again, .339, 14 HR, 36 RBI in a month where two-thirds of the lineup was in a slump. Add to that two more game-winning "walk off" hits. If Ortiz doesn't win the MVP this year, there should be an investigation.

July 30, 2006

The Red Sox continue to play mediocre baseball. Since a 14-1 stretch against the National League, the Sox weekly won/loss records have been as follows: 3-4, 1-3, 5-2, 3-3. Add it up and you have a record of 12-12 over the past four weeks. Thanks to that soft stretch, the Yankees are only one-half game behind the Sox in the AL East. The Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox and Twins are separated by just two games and it looks like only two of those four teams will reach the playoffs. Over the next 17 days, the Sox will play ten home games and six road games. The two road series will be played against the Devil Rays and Royals. The home series will be against the Indians, Orioles and Tigers. Following those games, Boston plays a five game series at Fenway with the Yankees. The soft schedule gives the Sox a great opportunity to expand their lead in the AL East. As tightly contested as the Sox-Yanks series has been, I fully that series in mid-August be 3-2 in favor of someone.

Player of the Week: Big Papi of course. David Ortiz was 9 for 27 this week (.333) with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 runs and another walk off hit. The man is carrying this team right now.

July 23, 2006

This would have been a great week had the Sox pulled out Sunday's game. It is ironic that the Red Sox, who have the best in the majors and have set the major league record for most consecutive errorless games, lost in large part because of one of the worst defensive plays I have ever seen. Adrian Beltre's inside the park homer in the eighth inning had to be seen to be believed. Between Coco's misjump, Manny whacking the ball back toward the fence and Coco's impossibly horrid throw to the infield, the Sox looked more like the Bad News Bears than a team that could break the major league record for fewest errors in a full season. Beltre's unconventional homer came with two outs and Timlin retired the next batter so it is more than likely that play cost Boston the game. It is hard to believe that a team who has a setup man with a 2.29 ERA (prior to today) and a closer with an 0.54 ERA could cough up so wins in the late innings, but they have.

All things considered, I was very impressed with Kason Gabbard on Saturday. He could have very easily won the game. All five of Seattle's runs were a fluke of sorts. A weak infield dribbler that died near the third base line led to Seattle's first two runs, a bad call and an error caused the third run to score (charged to Gabbard) and a popup that managed to land between Crisp and Gonzalez led to the fourth and fifth runs (charged to Tavarez).

The starting pitching has been pretty solid over the past nine days. During that time, the Red Sox have three shutouts (the first three of the season) and the starters' ERA is 2.88 (not including Tim Wakefield's injury-plagued start on Monday). That's excellent when you consider that three of those eight games were started by rookies and two were started by a guy with only 22 career starts.

Player of the Week: Jon Lester had a chance to grab the POW award with a win today but he really did not pitch well after a brilliant effort on Tuesday. This week's award goes to Josh Beckett who tossed eight great innings on Wednesday (0 runs, 4 hits, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts). The runner-up is Jon Papelbon, who saved three consecutive one-run wins (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday).

July 16, 2006

What a miserable eight days for the Red Sox. Just a week ago, the Red Sox were one out away from taking a four game lead in the AL East to the All Star break. After Two heartbreaking losses, two blowout losses and a Yankee sweep over Chicago, the Sox find themselves just one half game in front in the division. I felt there was a very good chance the Red Sox could gain a game and a half between Thursday and Sunday. They actually lost two and half games in the standings. Ironically, Jermaine Dye of the White Sox, who homered with two outs in the ninth against Papelbon last Sunday, was the tying run when he struckout today to end the game against the Yankees.

Don't let the 8-1 score today fool you. The Red Sox could have easily won 1-0 today. They key pitch of the game came in the fifth inning when Kyle Snyder hit Adam Melhuse (a .227 hitter in the back). This loaded the bases with no outs. The next batter walked followed by two strikeouts. So, if Melhuse is retired (or bunts), there is a good chance that Snyder gets out of the inning without giving up a run (Oakland scored five that inning). Tavarez gave up three runs in the ninth but had the Sox been ahead 1-0, Papelbon would have of course come in.

Player of the Week: This is a pretty easy call. Curt Schilling was sensational on Saturday night (7 IP, 2 hits, 9 K's, 1 BB). Curt is now 11-3 and very much in the running for the AL Cy Young award.

July 12, 2006

Technically, the All Star break is not the midpoint of the season (the Red Sox have played 86 games) but for all intents and purposes, Thursday begins the second half of the season. Despite a disappointing final week of the first half, the Red Sox are in a great position to win the American League East this year. Boston is currently 53-33 (on pace for a 100-62 record), three games ahead of New York in the AL East. The Red Sox have the added advantage of more home games in the second half than their AL East rivals. The Red Sox play 44 of their final 76 games at Fenway (+12) as compared to 38 home/38 road for the Yankees and 35/39 for the Blue Jays. The Sox are (knock on wood) fairly healthy. They desperately need a healthy David Wells and a few players are banged up, but all things considered Boston is in much better shape than New York. Of the Red Sox next 21 games, 15 are at home and all the games are against the AL West and the two bottom feeders in the AL Central (KC and Cleveland). The Yankees and Jays will play seven times during this time. Needless to say, this is a great opportunity for the Red Sox to put some space between themselves and the rest of the AL East. Here's a brief first half recap and a look ahead to the second half:

First Half Surprises (the Good Kind)

• Mike Lowell -- Not was expected from Lowell after a .236, 8 HR season in 2005. He's bounced back beyond anyone's hopes. Lowell is batting .307 and is on pace for a 21 HR, 87 RBI, 58 double season. Lowell has also played gold glove quality defense (only four errors).



• Jon Papelbon -- Most Sox fans felt that Papelbon would be a big contributor this season but I don't think anyone was expecting the rookie to be the most dominant closer in baseball. Papelbon's ERA checks in at 0.59 (46 innings). With a little luck, Papelbon's ERA could be 0.00. He's struck out 47 batters against only 8 walks (a 6:1 ratio). He has converted 26 of 29 save chances (in seven of those cases he saved one-run leads). I can't imagine where the Sox would be without him.



• Trot Nixon -- Even with the nightmarish 0 for 9 effort on Sunday, Nixon is batting .311 with a .415 on base percentage. The .311 is 36 points better than last season. The .415 is 58 points better than last season and 19 points better than Nixon's career best (2003).



• Kevin Youkilis -- I am only slightly surprised to see Kevin Youkilis' outstanding offensive numbers. Youk is batting .297 with an on base percentage of .407. He's on pace for 19 homers and 41 doubles. These numbers are more or less what I was hoping for from the so-called "Greek God of Walks" (he's on a pace for over 100 of those). What has been surprising is how quickly Youkilis has become an outstanding defensive first baseman.



• The Defense -- There was no doubt that the Sox would be much-improved defensively this season but no one could have predicted that they would set a major league record for the most consecutive games without an error (17). The Red Sox are on pace to make only 57 errors this season which would be also be a major league record. Alex Gonzalez has made only two errors this season (if I'm not mistaken, Edgar Renteria had 17 at the All Star break last season).

First Half Disappointments

• The Bullpen -- ERA-wise, the bullpen has been better than last season but most of that can be attributed to Jonathan Papelbon. Timlin has been solid as usual but the middle relief has ranged between mediocre and downright bad. Keith Foulke went to the DL with a 5.63 ERA. Rudy Seanez starts the second half with an ERA of 4.86 (compared to 2.74, 3.33 and 2.69 from 2003-2005). Julian Tavrez has been pitching better of late but his ERA still stands at 4.56 (3.66, 2.38 and 3.43 from 2003-2005). Their lack of success doesn't make much sense.



• Jason Varitek -- Jason Varitek is really struggling at the plate. His batting average has slipped to .232 (he's a .272 career hitter). Tek's 9 homers put him pretty close to his usual pace but his 10 doubles are well below his usual pace.



• Matt Clement -- Clement has some good physical tools but he does not appear to have the mental makeup to be a successful big league pitcher. Clement's ERA expanded to 6.61 before he went on the disabled list about a month ago. After a great first half last year (10-2, 3.85), Clement was 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA in the second half.



• The Fifth Starter -- David Wells was piching very well when he was struck by the ball in the fifth inning of a May 26th game. Wells had been out of the rotation since April 12th. It is still hard to predict when (or if) Wells will return. Losing Wells has been a disaster for the Sox. Kyle Snyder, Lenny DiNardo, David Pauley and Jason Johnson have a combined 8.08 ERA in 11 combined starts. What's worse, Bronson Arroyo is a candidate for the NL Cy Young award. On the plus side, rookie Jon Lester is 4-0 with an ERA of 3.06 in six starts so it looks like four spots in the rotation are in good shape.



• Performance Against Toronto -- The Red Sox are 4-7 against the Jays this year (49-26 against the rest of the league). Three of those losses were by one run. The Sox are 5-5 against the Yankees which is no shock at all considering how competitive the teams have been since 2003.

Hopes for the Second Half

• Fewer Gopher Balls for Josh Beckett -- Beckett's record of 11-4 is right on line with what I had hoped for. I don't think anyone could be upset with 11-4. However, it concerns me that Beckett is giving up so many homeruns this season. The Sox righthander has surrendered 26 longballs in only 110 innings of work. This is nearly three times his rate for 2004 and 2005. Beckett's strikeout to walk ratio and opponent batting average is similar to 2004-05.



• More Offense from the Catchers -- Not only has Varitek struggled but so has Doug Mirabelli. Doug's .175 average is 61 points lower than his career average.



• One More Starter -- The Red Sox really need to figure out how to find one more starter. A healthy David Wells would be nice but I'm not sure it is realistic. I love the way Jon Lester is pitching and I expect him to be in the rotation for the rest of the year (and for many years to come), but I'm not sure the Red Sox want him starting a Game 4 in the playoffs. Jason Schmidt, Greg Maddux, Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis are all rumored to be available for the right price.



• Consistency in the Pen -- There is no reason why the Red Sox middle relief should perform as badly in the second half as they did in the first half. They key will be whether or not Tavarez and Seanez will revert to their solid pitching of the past few years. I am a little nervous with Javier Lopez being the only lefty in the bullpen. He has a career ERA of 6.05 (mostly in Colorado). Lefties batted .246 against him between 2003 and 2005. This isn't great for a lefty specialist. I expect the Sox to add a lefthanded reliever sometime prior to the trading deadline.



• An MVP for Big Papi -- David Ortiz has raised his average to .278 and is on pace for a 58 HR, 164 RBI, 122 runs scored season. This puts Ortiz in a decent position to break Roger Maris' single season record for homeruns by a player not juiced up on steroids. Only 12 players (and none since 1938) have driven in more than 165 runs in a single season. If Big Papi raises his average a bit, ends the season in the neighborhood of 55 HR/160 RBI, adds another walk off or two and the Red Sox win the AL East, I cannot imagine that he will not take home the MVP trophy. How good has he been? Since the All Star break last year, David has 57 HR, 160 RBIs and 121 runs scored (not to mention 113 walks).

MVP and Cy Young Races

• Jon Papelbon and Curt Schilling are both candidates for the Cy Young. Closers rarely get the nod but if Papelbon can save 50 games and keep his ERA in the 0.59 range that it is now, he has a chance. Schilling will need to lower his 3.60 ERA and win 20 games (he's on pace for 19). The front runners right now would have to be Mike Mussins (10-3, 3.24), Johan Santana (9-5, 2.95) and Roy Halladay (12-2, 2.92) but Justin Verlander, Scott Kazmir, Jose Contreras and Schilling all have at least 9 wins and an ERA at or below 3.60. My prediction: Roy Halladay.



• The MVP race is just as hotly contested. Manny Ramirez is putting up MVP-type numbers. Dye, Thome and Konerko will split the Chicago vote. Derek Jeter doesn't have the homers but he's carried the Yankees with a .345 average. Like Jeter, Joe Mauer doesn't hit many longballs but he's batting .378. Justin Morneau, Vernon Wells and Ichiro are also putting up nice numbers on competitive teams. My prediction: David Ortiz.

July 9, 2006

Sunday's game in Chicago was easily the most frustrating game of the year. Twice the Sox had the lead heading into Chicago's final at bat but Chicago rallied both times. For the first time this year, the Red Sox lost a game in which they handed Papelbon the ball with the lead. Papelbon's first two blown saves later turned into Red Sox victories. Luck was not on Boston's side on Sunday. The Red Sox spent most of the day hitting line drives directly at Chicago players while the White Sox grabbed several cheap hits including a crucial infield hit in the bottom the 19th. The White Sox also survived an 11th inning baserunning error where Jermaine Dye rounded third base then failed to retouch third as he scurried back to second base following a Trot Nixon catch. Had the Red Sox noticed Dye's mistake, they could have had an easy double play and probably would have won the game. Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek were 0 for 9 and 0 for 8, respectively. Even the big guns had tough games. Ortiz and Ramirez were a combined 2 for 15 with three strikeouts. Ortiz grounded into two double plays. It was not the kind of game you want to take into the All Star break.

The lone bright spot was Julian Tavarez, who pitched four shutout innings (one hit, one walk). Tavarez has given up just one run in his last 11 innings of work.

Player of the Week: I'm not sure the Red Sox should have a Player of the Week given the misery of the last seven days but the obvious choice is David Ortiz. Big Papi was 9 for 30 this week (.300) with 5 HR and 12 RBIs. He also scored seven runs.

July 2, 2006

If the Red Sox win the AL East, they will probably be able to credit their play against the National League. Boston finished interleague play with an incredible 16-2 mark. This contrasts sharply with the early years of interleague play when the Sox had a terrible record against the NL. For the most part, the American League has dominated interleague play this season.

The Red Sox were 5-1 this week and are 14-1 since being swept by the Minnesota Twins two and a half weeks ago. It appears that the Twins series was a wake-up call for the Red Sox.

Player of the Week: The choice this week was not difficult. David Ortiz was 8 for 19 this week with 4 homers, 7 RBIs and 8 runs. He was on base 10 of 21 times this week. Big Papi has raised his batting average from .264 to .276 in the last nine games.

June 30, 2006

The Red Sox 12-game winning streak ended on Friday night as the latest attempt to find a fifth starter, Jason Johnson, pitched miserably in the first two innings. The Red Sox ended June on a losing note, but it was a great month for the Sox. Boston was 17-9 in June (they were also 17-9 in May). The bats are warming up (the Sox averaged 7.6 runs per game during the winning streak), the starting pitching has been much better (2.89 starters ERA during the streak) and the defense has been simply amazing (17 games without an error).

There was a lot of talk this season about the Red Sox offense. Many people felt that it would take a step back in 2006. The Red Sox led the majors in runs in 2003, 2004 and 2005. After a slow start, the Red Sox are now second in the majors in runs per game. The White Sox are averaging 5.8 runs per game, the Red Sox are averaging 5.6. The pitching still leaves something to be desired (17th in the MLB) but things are going in the right direction. As poorly as the bullpen has been at times this season, it has improved since last season. The Sox 2006 bullpen ERA is 4.15. Last year, it was 5.15. If you remove Papelbon from the 2006 mix, the bullpen ERA is 4.95. The defense, needless to say, has been astounding. The Red Sox have committed only 23 errors this season, 12 fewer than the next best defensive team (Seattle, 35). Boston is on pace to shatter the major league record for fewest errors in a season.

Curt Schilling's value simply cannot be overestimated. Last season, the Sox were not a championship caliber team mainly because Schilling was not healthy. The Red Sox were only 5-6 in Schilling starts last year. In 2004 and 2006, the Red Sox are an amazing 39-10 in games started by Schilling. The Sox are 25-8 this season when Beckett and Schilling start (23-21 otherwise).

Plenty of Red Sox were great in the month of June. Mark Loretta batted .330 in June after a .404 month of May. Youkilis batted .309 with 15 RBI and 17 runs. David Ortiz batted .277 with 8 HR, 22 RBI and 20 runs. Manny Ramirez batted .309 with 7 HR, 21 RBI and 17 runs. Trot Nixon batted .386 with 1 HR, 14 RBIs and a .465 on base percentage. Alex Gonzalez batted .352 with 3 HR, 10 RBI and no errors. In limited action, Alex Cora batted .325. On the pitching side, Jon Papelbon was 2-0 and converted 5 of 7 saves in June. His ERA was 0.68. Curt Schilling was 2-0 with a 2.85 ERA (37 K/5 BB).

Player of the Month: On the numbers alone this is a tough decision, but anyone who has watched the Red Sox the past month knows that Big Papi was the Player of the Month and the team's MVP. His three-run walkoff homer beat the Rangers 5-4 on June 11th. His grand slam was the key hit in a 9-3 win over Washington on June 21st. He hit another walk-off last Saturday to beat the Phils 5-3 in ten innings and two days later drove in the winning run in an 8-7 12-inning victory.

June 25, 2006

Big Papi did it again. His ability to come up with big hits, especially big homers, is simply amazing. It's hard to believe that anyone pitches to him in situations such as the one Tom Gordon faced on Saturday. This is why the Sox could not afford to give away Manny Ramirez. Ortiz would be walked almost as much as Barry Bonds if not for Ramirez. Speaking of Manny. Through 16 games this season, Ramirez had no homers and only 6 RBI. He has 20 homers and 45 RBIs in 52 games since.

The only thing more amazing than Big Papi's clutch hitting is the work of Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon lowered his 2006 ERA to an unimaginable 0.24. He has now struck out 39 batters and walked only 5. Papelbon has now given up one run in his last 40 appearances (51 1/3 innings).

Starting pitching continues to be the key to success. In the last eight games (all wins), Sox starters have given up just 15 runs in 49 innings. That's an ERA of 2.76. It was very encouraging to see Jon Lester have a second consecutive excellent start. He struck out 10 batters on Wednesday night. It appears that Papelbon, Lester and Beckett will be the core of the Sox rotation in years to come. You can't help but be excited about that.

Most of the Red Sox hitters had solid weeks: Loretta (11 for 23, 4 runs), Cora (5 for 7, 4 runs), Ortiz (6 for 20, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs), Ramirez (8 for 17, 3 HR, 9 RBI), Nixon (8 for 16, 3 RBI, 4 runs), Gonzalez (5 for 12, 4 runs).

Player of the Week: All of the players mentioned above were worthy of the Player of the Week award. I am giving the nod to Ramirez.

June 18, 2006

The Red Sox picked up their fourth sweep of the year on the heels of being swept for the first time all season. The Red Sox won three in a row over the fading Braves thanks in large part to starting pitching and Jon Papelbon. Lester, Beckett and Schilling gave up just five runs combined in 18 innings of work over the weekend and Papelbon saved all three games. The offense did its part as well. Jason Varitek had a big three-run double on Friday night. Youkilis and Ortiz homered on both Saturday and Sunday.

The Red Sox survived a tough 19 game stretch that included 15 road games including series against the Jays, Yankees and Tigers. The Red Sox were 9-10 during the three week period. I was hoping for something better than 9-10, but things could have been worse. Game-saving ninth inning homers by Youkilis and Ortiz helped the Sox to two key comeback wins.

Jonathan Papelbon's performance continues to be ridiculous. In his last 39 appearances dating back to September 19th of last year, Papelbon has given up just one run in 49 innings of work. During that time, he's surrendered just 25 hits and 5 walks. He has 42 strikeouts during this stretch.

The two Red Sox regulars who struggled the most in the first couple of months have improved dramatically in June. Jason Varitek is batting .304 since May 29th and Alex Gonzalez is batting .325 in the month of June. Trot Nixon has been great all season. He's batting .382 in June.

Player of the Week: Alex Gonzalez, who was 8 for 18 this week (.444) and continues to play spectacular defense.

June 12, 2006

The Red Sox managed to regain the lead in the AL East despite dropping two of four to the Rangers over the weekend. The Sox won both games started by the veterans and lost by games started by the rookies. The Red Sox are now 11 games over .500. Curt Schilling is 9 games over .500. The Sox pitching staff has not had many solid games of late. The staff has given up three runs or fewer in only 6 of the last 22 games (27%). They gave up three runs or fewer in 18 of the first 39 games (46%).

Overall, the Red Sox bullpen has been better than it was last year (it could only get better) but in reality most of that improvement comes from one person, Jon Papelbon. The ERAs of some of the key middle relievers are disturbing: Seanez 4.56, Tavvarez 4.66, Delcarmen 5.23, Foulke 5.63.

The defense has been weak the past two weeks as well. The Sox committed only 15 errors in their first 48 games. They have committed 8 errors in the past 13 games. I hope this is not a trend.

What a moment for the Red Sox and David Ortiz in Game One on Sunday. I have never seen a Red Sox player with the flair for the dramatic that Ortiz possesses. It is simply amazing. Ortiz now has five walk-off homers with the Red Sox. The walk-offs are simply the tip of the iceberg. He's done it with singles, doubles and eighth inning homers. Watching on Sunday, I was afraid that Loretta would bounce into a DP. All I wanted was for Papi to have a chance to swing the bat. Thankfully, the batters in front of him allowed that to happen.

Kevin Youkilis had a nice week. He was 7 for 18 with 2 RBIs and 3 runs. He reached base 12 times in 23 at bats. Manny and Big Papi each had a pair of homers this week. Jason Varitek was 7 for 19 with a homer and 4 RBIs.

Player of the Week: Trot Nixon, who was 11 for 24 (and reached base 14 of 27 times) with a homer, 4 RBIs and 7 runs scored.

June 4, 2006

The Sox have reached the one-third mark in the regular season. This early in the season, the individual "on pace" numbers don't mean a whole lot, but they are always interesting to examine. Here are some of the "on pace" statistics:

• The team is currently 33-21. That means they are on pace for a 99-63 season.
• The Red Sox are on pace to hit 201 homers this year. Amazingly, only 21 of their 67 homers this season have come at Fenway.
• David Ortiz is on pace for 48 homers and 150 RBI despite batting only .261. Manny is on pace for 42 HR and 111 RBI which is pretty amazing considering his slow start.
• Mike Lowell is on pace for a major league record 69 doubles.
• Seven Red Sox are on pace for 75 or more RBIs.
• Manny Ramirez is on pace for 126 walks.
• Mark Loretta is on pace for 198 hits.
• As a team, the Sox are on pace to commit only 60 errors. At this rate, Alex Gonzalez will commit only three errors this season.
• Curt Schilling is on pace to go 24-6. Josh Beckett is on a 21-6 pace. Tim Wakefield is on pace to lose 21 games.
• Jon Papelbon is on pace to save 60 games.

Player of the Week: Jason Varitek, who was one of the few Sox to hit this week. In four games, Tek was 6 for 17 with a homer, 4 RBI and 3 runs.

Player of the Month (May): Mark Loretta, who batted .404 in May 16 RBI and 17 runs. He also played stellar defense. Loretta edged out Mike Lowell (.316 with 5 HR and 17 RBI), David Ortiz (5 HR, 28 RBI), Jon Papelbon (0.71 ERA, 9/9 in saves) and Manny Ramirez (.333 with 9 homers and 21 RBI).

May 28, 2006

Let's start with the good news: the Red Sox were 5-2 this week and will begin their 11 game road trip with a two game lead in the AL East. The Sox offense is really hitting its stride with nearly every Sox regular hitting the ball well. Even Alex Gonzalez had a nice week at the plate. The defense has been spectacular, especially in the infield. Beckett and Schilling are both pitching well and Tim Wakefield put together his best start of the year on Sunday afternoon. Jon Papelbon remains virtually unhittable.

As for the bad news ... the Red Sox really should have been 7-0 this week with a six game lead over New York (instead of two). On Tuesday night, with Boston trailing 4-1 in the top of the seventh, Francona inexplicably allowed a tiring Wakefield in the game to face A-Rod with two men on base. I think every Sox fan in New England knew what would happen next -- A-Rod launched one over the Monster (when the Yankees are ahead by three or more runs or behind by six or more runs, there is no better hitter in the game than A-Rod). The Sox scored three in the bottom of the seventh and eventually lost 7-5. More than likely, Francona's poor decision cost the Sox the game. On Wednesday, the Red Sox scored six runs but lost largely because of a ridiculous top of the second inning. After retiring Giambi and A-Rod, Matt Clement walked Robinson Cano, gave up an infield hit to Bernie Williams (which hit Clement), walked Terrance Long, HIT KELLY STINNETT to force home a run, gave up a single to Cabrera to score another run then surrendered a double to Jeter to plate two more. The Sox ended up losing by two runs. That second inning was the difference. As for the other bad news, the Red Sox bullpen after Papelbon and Timlin is underperforming right now. Foulke had problems this week and the performance by Seanez and Tavarez on Sunday was downright embarrassing. Matt Clement is a disaster right now. The Sox also have some minor injuries to worry about. Pena (wrist) and Ramirez (back) both missed time this week. David Wells took a line drive off his knee (the bad knee) in his first start off the DL. Mike Timlin has a tired arm and has not been available over the past few days.

The next three weeks will be a huge challenge for the Red Sox. In the next 21 days, the Red Sox will play 20 games, 16 of those on the road. This stretch includes road series against the Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Twins and Braves and a home series against Texas which includes a day-night double header. Here's the positive side: after this stretch of games, the Red Sox will play 53 of their final 94 games at Fenway (+12). In fact, 44 of the Red Sox 75 games after the All Star break will be at Fenway (+13). By contrast, the Yankees play 37 of 75 second half games at Yankee Stadium (-1). The Jays play only 35 of their final 74 at home (-4). If the Sox can stay in first place through the All Star break, they will be in great shape to win the AL East.

Although passed balls and lack of run support have had a lot to do with Tim Wakefield's poor record this season, most of his problems this season can be traced back to the number of walks Wakefield has given up. Last season, when Wakefield went 16-12, he walked an average of 2.7 batters per nine innings. Between 2002 and 2004, his walks per nine were 2.8, 3.2 and 3.0. Wakefield won more games than he lost in each of those seasons. Prior to Sunday's start, however, Wake had walked 3.7 batters per nine innings. Obviously, the last thing a knuckleballer who gives up a lot of homers wants to do is walk people. Sunday's 8 IP, 1 BB performance was very encouraging. Hopefully, we'll see a repeat of last season. In the first half of 2005, Wakefield walked 3.5 batters per nine innings. In the second half, that number shrunk to 1.8.

It's hard to understand why the fan behind the Red Sox dugout was giving Keith Foulke such a hard time on Friday night. Foulke was absolutely awful on Monday against the Yankees but all things considered, he's pitched well of late. If you take away that one outing against the Yanks, Foulke has given up seven runs in 22 2/3 innings since April 19th. That's an ERA of 2.78 if you exclude Monday's game. That's not up to closer standards, but it's pretty good for a seventh inning guy. Foulke has struck out 21 and walked only three batters this season. That is outstanding.

For those of you who are South Park fans, you have may have noticed that the 8-9 batters in the Yankees lineup on Tuesday were Terrence and Phillips. That's Terrence Long and Andy Phillips.

Who's HOT -- Josh Beckett (4-0 with an ERA of 2.33 in his last four starts); Mike Timlin (had gone 12 consecutive appearances without giving up a run before his outing on Thursday); Jon Papelbon (0.35 ERA, 18 saves in 18 chances); the Red Sox defense (a league best 15 errors this season); Kevin Youklis (his on base percentage is up to a Boggsian .440); Mark Loretta (.410 batting average in May); David Ortiz (27 RBI in May); Manny Ramirez (8 for 12 with 4 HR and 10 RBI in the Yankee series this week); Mike Lowell (is on pace for a major league record 74 doubles); Alex Gonzalez (7 for 15 this week); Alex Cora (6 for 11 this week).

Who's NOT -- Dustan Mohr, Willie Harris, Doug Mirabelli (all batting less than .180); Jason Varitek (batting .212 in May and .202 this season at Fenway); Matt Clement (15 earned runs allowed in his last three outings combined).

Player of the Week -- Schilling won twice this week but the award has to go to Manny Ramirez. He was 8 for 12 in the Yankee series with 4 homers, 10 RBI and 5 runs scored. He was 10 for 21 and reached base 12 of 23 times this week.

May 21, 2006

The Red Sox were 4-2 on their brief road trip, both times losing the third game of the series. The Sox moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. The bad news is that Boston could easily be ahead of New York by 3 1/2 games. The Yankees had two miracle wins this week: On Tuesday, they trailed 10-1 to the Rangers but won 14-13 on a bottom of the ninth two-run homer by Jorge Posada. On Saturday, the Yankees were down 4-0 heading into the ninth inning against the Mets but rallied to tie the game against Billy Wagner. They won the game in the tenth inning on a hit by the immortal Andy Phillips.

The Sox are now only two games in the loss column behind Detroit for the best record in the AL. That's right, Detroit. The Tigers are capable of staying in the playoff race all season. At present, four Tigers regulars are batting over .300. Four Tigers have at least 9 homers already. Magglio Ordonez (.316, 11 HR) and Chris Shelton (.315, 11 HR) have done both. Detroit's starting pitching has been amazing. Four of the five pitchers in the rotation have an ERA of 3.50 or less and all five have winning records. Kenny Rogers is 7-2 and has yet to beat up a camera man. There have been some stars in the bullpen as well including Fernando Rodney (1.42 ERA in 19 innings). The Sox and Tigers will meet up in Detroit for a three game series beginning on June 2nd.

Player of the Week: There is no doubt that Josh Beckett was Boston's Player of the Week. He went 2-0 this week, giving up four earned runs in 14 innings of work. Beckett struck out ten batters and walked just three in his two starts. Oh by the way, he also became the first Red Sox pitcher since 1972 to hit a homerun.

May 14, 2006

The Rangers swept the Red Sox this weekend in an abbreviated one game series. The Red Sox have now been rained out three times in the past two weeks. That will mean some double headers down the road and that is rarely a good thing. The Sox grabbed two of three from the Yankees thanks to some decent pitching from Beckett and Wakefield and a whole lot of baserunners in the first and third games of the series. The Sox scored only five on Thursday but left 15 runners on base. The Sox have now taken three of four from the Bronx Bombers this year.

I don't want to make too much of the 3-1 start against the Yankees but based on the early returns, I'd say that the Red Sox are the better team. By any measure, the Red Sox are the superior defensive team. Damon and Crosby made great plays in the recent series but the web gems were far outweighed by the various drops, some of which were Bad News Bears-like. The Yankees clearly have a lot more power in the lineup than the Red Sox but I'm not sure they will score more runs than the Red Sox this season, especially without Matsui for a few months, if not the rest of the season. Undoubtedly, they will pick up a veteran to replace him. The Red Sox offense is starting to produce the way we all had hoped they would. That is, not a ton of power (other than Ortiz and Ramirez of course) but a high on base percentage and plenty of doubles. Even Alex Gonzalez homered against the Yankees. As far as the pitching goes, the Schilling-Beckett combo looks better than Mussina-Johnson duo at this point. Mussina has pitched well but Johnson appears to have lost it. On the other hand, in the 3/4 spots, Wang and Chacon have pitched better than Wakefield/Clement this season. Right now, Jon Papelbon is a better closer than Mariano Rivera. Both teams have had mixed news out of the bullpen.

I haven't forgotten about the Blue Jays. Their lineup has battered American League pitching this year. Five Blue Jay regulars are batting .336 or better. Three players have a slugging percentage of better than .610. Halladay and Lilly are pitching well and B.J. Ryan has been as good as Papelbon in the closer's role. The down side for the Jays are injuries. Burnett is on the DL and it looks like Chacin will miss some starts. Halladay is coming off a major injury as well.

Player of the Week: It was a pretty easy choice this week. Mark Loretta was 9 for 16 against the Yankees and 9 for 19 for the week. He scored three runs and drove in five against the Yankees in New York. Loretta was batting .207 on May 3rd. He's now at .274. I have to believe that .300 is not far behind.

May 7, 2006

After dropping to 15-12, the Sox have won four consecutive games to match a season-best seven games over .500. The offense is finally starting to pick up. Five Red Sox regulars are batting .314 or better and one of those who isn't, David Ortiz, already has 11 homers and 28 RBIs. Another, Mark Loretta, has eight hits in his last four games. The starting pitching was solid in five of six games this week (the five wins). The only bad news was that the bullpen coughed up a win on Wednesday night against the Blue Jays. Even Jon Papelbon gave up a run in that game (the winning run). It was the first run the young righthander had given up since September 19th of last year (a span of 27 innings).

The Yankees are also playing good baseball. They will enter the upcoming series in the Bronx in a tie for first place with the Red Sox in the AL East. The Red Sox were scheduled to play the Yankees 12 times between May 1st and June 8th. In other words, Boston and New York were scheduled to meet 12 times in the first 62 games and only 7 times in the final 100 games (because of last week's rainout, it will now be 11 and 8, respectively). The Red Sox and Yankees will play only one series after August 21st. The Red Sox will also play 11 of their 19 against the Blue Jays prior to June 1st. This makes absolutely no sense. The good news for the Red Sox is that 8 of their final 12 games will be at Fenway.

Player of the Week: There were a few good candidates to choose from this week. Mark Loretta broke out of a slump and batted .346 (9 for 26) with seven runs this week. Manny Ramirez batted .500 (9 for 18), reached base 17 of 26 times this week and scored six runs. Kevin Youklis batted .440 (11 for 25) with two homers, four RBIs and eight runs scored. The award this week, however, goes to Mike Lowell. Lowell batted .381 (8 for 21) with six runs scored, six RBIs and six doubles. Lowell has 21 hits in his last 13 games.

April 30, 2006

After a great 11-4 start to the season, the Red Sox slumped to a 14-11 record in April. The Sox have now lost seven of ten games and were nearly swept by the Devil Rays. The good news is that all of the other top AL contenders, except for the white hot White Sox, also played poorly in April. In the AL, only the White Sox and Tigers were better than three games over .500 in the month of April.

First the good news: Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett both look healthy and for the most part have pitched well. The Foulke-Timlin-Papelbon late inning relief trio has been excellent (9 runs allowed in 40 2/3 innings). Keith Foulke is throwing well and appears to be healthy. The Red Sox defense has improved as they have made just 11 errors in 25 games. Kevin Youkilis is off to a very nice start. He's played excellent defense at first base and is batting .299. David Ortiz has already hit 10 homers. If he hits another 65 this season, the New York writers may even give him some MVP votes.

There is more bad news than good. The Red Sox offense has been sluggish to say the least. The team that has led the AL in runs in each of the past three years is currently ninth in that category. The Sox are also ninth in batting average and tenth in homers. Albert Pujols has more homers (14) than the the entire Red Sox team (13) if you subtract Big Papi's contribution. Ramirez and Ortiz appear to be the only Sox right now with any power. Nixon, Youkilis and Lowell are off to pretty good starts as far as batting average goes but Varitek and Loretta look awful. Varitek doesn't even look like the same person at the plate. Gonzalez has been pretty close to an automatic out. In fact, I always fast forward through his at bats when I'm watching the game on Tivo. Alex Cora, Dustan Mohr, J.T. Snow, Adam Stern and Willie Harris are all batting .200 or less. The Red Sox should create a new reality TV show to fill out their bench. The Red Sox have been very good defensively except for Wily Mo Pena and Josh Bard. Bard's inability to catch the knuckle ball and Pena's inability to catch .. well, the ball .. have cost the Red Sox at least ten runs this season and possibly two Tim Wakefield starts. At this point in the season, I can't get too upset with Bard. But, if he doesn't improve quickly, he could ruin Tim Wakefield's season. The late inning relief, as I said, has been great. The middle relief has been much like the debacle of last season. Tavarez, Seanez and Riske (in one appearance) have given up close to one run per inning. Clement and DiNardo are all off to lousy starts and Wells is back on the DL (meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo is 4-0 with a 2.34 ERA and has even hit two homeruns). Coco Crisp's injury has had a devastating impact on the offensive production.

Player of the Week: It is hard to choose anyone this week. I guess it comes down to Mike Lowell (10 for 23, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and Jon Papelbon (three more scoreless innings and two saves). Papelbon saved both Sox wins this week, so I'll give it to the rookie.

Player of the Month: There were not many strong candidates this month. Kevin Youkilis (.299 avg, .406 OBP, 1 HR, 14 RBI) is off to a good start, as is David Ortiz (.278, 10 HR, 20 RBI). Curt Schilling looks healthy after a miserable 2005. He's 4-1 with 2.88 ERA and leads the AL in strikeouts. The clear cut winner, however, is Jonathan Papelbon. All Jonathan did in the month of April was convert all ten of his save opportunities while not allowing a run in 14 1/3 innings of work. His strikeout to HIT ratio was 2:1 (his K to BB ratio was 7:1). Most importantly, Papelbon closed out 10 of the Red Sox 14 wins, four of which were one run saves. Including the playoffs last year, Papelbon has not surrendered a run in his last 26 2/3 innings. Amazing.

April 23, 2006

The Red Sox finished off a 4-3 week with a victory on Sunday in Toronto. The Red Sox are 10-3 this season against Texas, Baltimore, Seattle and Tampa Bay but are only 2-4 against the Blue Jays. Based on what I have seen so far, I believe that the Jays will be in the AL East race all season. They have a very potent lineup, a top notch closer in B.J Ryan, a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation with Halladay and Burnett and a decent 3-4 with Lilly and Chacin. However, Burnett is already on the DL and Halladay is coming off a serious injury so like the Sox, injuries could be a big factor this season for the Jays.

What is it with the Blue Jays fans and the non-stop booing? When the Sox were at bat, just about every pitch that was called a ball drew boos from the Blue Jay fans. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. These are the same people who boo the Star Spangled Banner when American sports teams visit Canada. Whining and booing has replaced hockey as Canada's national pastime.

Wouldn't it be great to have the QuesTec umpire stats in the box scores? If a pitcher gives up eight runs, everybody will know it. If a home plate umpire is wrong 30% of the time, there is no record of it. QuesTec is not perfect, but I think if the data was published we'd have a better understanding of who the best umpires are. On Friday night, it really seemed to me that the strike zone was much larger for Blue Jay pitchers than Sox pitchers. I love to know if my impression was correct.

I think the Red Sox actually cost themselves a win on Friday by scoring two runs and remaining at bat for a long time in the top of the eighth inning. Josh Beckett was forced to sit for probably 20-30 minutes between innings and was not the same pitcher when he returned in the bottom of the eighth. It is always difficult for a pitcher to wait through a long inning but it is particularly difficult when that long inning occurs late in the game. I can't blame Francona for leaving Beckett in the game though. He had only thrown 78 pitches and the four run lead seemed pretty safe. Hopefully, that will be the last time this year that the Sox blow a four run lead in the final three innings.

I'm very happy that the Red Sox are not wearing those silly X-men-like batting helmets like so many major league teams. The Mets, Orioles, Cubs and Dodgers are among the ugly-helmet teams. HERE is an example. Who in the world thought that these would look good? Do they serve a purpose?

The post-steroids era isn't exactly what we thought it would be. Eleven players already have eight homeruns including David Ortiz. Albert Pujols has 8 HR and 26 RBI though 18 games. The Tigers and Reds already have 30-plus homers.

There wasn't a clear-cut Red Sox Player of the Week this week. Curt Schilling had a great start against the Devil Rays to run his record to 4-0. Jon Papelbon added two more saves and another 4 1/3 scoreless innings (11 1/3 for the season). Mark Loretta had the biggest hit of the week when he homered to win the Patriots Day game. Manny's bat came alive this week (.375, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs) and Kevin Youkilis continued his great start (.367, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6 runs). Trot Nixon batted .455 this week but only drove in two runs and scored once. In a close race, the winner is:

Player of the Week -- David Ortiz, who batted only .267 this week but hit four homers, drove in seven runs and scored eight times. Big Papi could be on his way to an even bigger season than last year.

April 16, 2006

Pitching continues to be the story for the Red Sox. Schilling, Wakefield, Beckett, Timlin and Papelbon were outstanding in the first three games of the Seattle series. Sox pitchers gave up only six runs (four earned) in those three games. In reality, only one of those runs was the fault of a Sox pitcher. The three runs surrendered by Wakefield on Saturday were the result of two passed balls by Josh Bard and an outfield blunder by Wily Mo Pena. Wake deserved a complete game shutout. The two runs scored off Beckett on Sunday were also a result of Wily Mo's poor defense. Wakefield has had two good outings in a row and Schilling and Beckett are each 3-0 with ERAs under 1.70. Papelbon and Timlin have combined for 12 scoreless innings this season. Keith Foulke has given up two runs in his last five innings of work. However, those two runs were the fault of ... you guessed it, Wily Mo Pena.

The pitching has been great, but you can't say the same for the offense. The Sox lineup on Saturday did NOT include Varitek, Loretta, Lowell, Crisp or Nixon. With Ramirez mired in a big slump, it is going to be tough to score runs with that lineup. Even Big Papi looked lost this weekend at the plate. This will change soon, of course. Manny started with a slow two weeks last year before going on a homerun hitting binge. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. Trot Nixon is expected back tomorrow. That is great news for the Sox. Pena's hitting has been okay but he is absolultely lost in rightfield at Fenway.

David Wells health is certainly a major concern. The Arroyo trade made sense to me at the time, but seeing Wells struggle makes me wonder. It would be nice to have Arroyo in the rotation right now. If Wells doesn't get healthy or comes back but continues to be knocked around, the Sox will have a decision to make. Do they move Papelbon to the rotation, trade for a starter or bring someone up from AAA? The Papelbon part of that clearly depends a lot on Keith Foulke. If Foulke looks good, moving Papelbon to the rotation is probably an easy call. If Wells falters, Roger Clemens' name is bound to surface.

Player of the Week -- It's a pretty easy call this week. Josh Beckett was 2-0, giving up just two earned runs in 14 innings of work. He gave up one of those runs in the first inning of Monday's game and the other earned run was the fault of Wily Mo. His current ERA of 1.29 is the best in the AL.

April 9, 2006

It is difficult to find anything negative to say about the first week of the season. Just about everyone is playing well and the key players appear to be healthy (Coco's finger injury appears to be minor). Obviously, we can't judge this team based on a week of action but it is nice to get off to such a great start, especially on the road. Here's the good news:

• The rotation made five outstanding starts in six chances this week. Curt Schilling looks great and Tim Wakefield bounced back on Sunday after an awful performance in Texas. In the five wins, the starters had an ERA of 2.12.



• Jon Papelbon pitched four scoreless innings this week and recorded three saves in three chances. In two of those save opportunities, Papelbon needed to protect one run leads. It is nice to know that if Keith Foulke cannot return to his 2004 form, the Sox have someone who can handle the closer's role.



• Speaking of Foulke, he looked very good in one scoreless inning on Sunday. He also pitched a scoreless inning on Friday night.



• The offense looked pretty good this week. Friday's game was amazing. The Red Sox put 32 men on base via a hit, walk or hit batsmen. Trot Nixon did not have a great 2005 season so it is a good sign that he is off to a fast start in 2006 (.300 avg, 2 HR, 7 RBI). Red Sox fans are going to love Mark Loretta. He's on base all the time (12 times this week), sees a lot of pitches, moves runners along and rarely strikes out.



• The Sox picked up three games on the Yankees this week. The standings mean very little at this time of the year but it is always a good thing when the Red Sox gain three games on the Yankees in a single week. The games this week count just as much as the ones in September.

As for the bad news, both Riske and Seanez had bad outings last week. This isn't any reason for concern. One bad performance stands out more when it happens in the first week of the season. Mike Lowell had a homer this week but batted only .190. It is very early, but so far I am not impressed with Lowell's bat.

The Sox are well positioned to get off to a phenomenal start this season. Josh Beckett will start the first of three games against the Blue Jays this week at Fenway. After that, the Sox host Seattle for four games and Tampa Bay for three. The Mariners and Devil Rays lost 93 and 95 games last year, respectively.

Player of the Week -- Plenty of Red Sox had a great week but it really came down to Curt Schilling and Trot Nixon. I'm giving the Week One Player of the Week award to Curt Schilling. The Sox ace was 2-0 this week with an ERA of 1.93. He struck out nine and walked just three in 14 innings.

April 2, 2006

Opening Day is just twenty-four hours away. The Red Sox will open the 2006 schedule in the great state of Texas against the no so great Rangers. The three game series begins on Monday afternoon. Schilling, Wakefield and Beckett are expected to take the hill in those first three games. The Red Sox were 9-20 in Spring Training but as we all know, that means nothing. Wins and losses in the Grapefruit League are meaningless. How the players are performing individually in the Spring means a little more. The most encouraging stats of the spring were the numbers put up by the Red Sox 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup. Coco Crisp hit .431 in the Spring with seven extra base hits in 51 at bats. Mark Loretta batted .353, also in 51 official at bats. Kevin Youkilis hit only .234 in the spring but blasted four homers in 47 at bats. The only offensive numbers that jump out in a negative way are those of Alex Gonzalez, who batted .130. Pitching stats mean less than offensive numbers in Spring Training because pitchers are more concerned with how they are throwing than getting people out. The ERAs of Beckett (5.14), Schilling (6.75) and Wells (11.25) really don't concern me. One spring pitching line that impressed me, however, was Craig Hansen's 10 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 0 runs. Even in the Grapefruit League, you can't help but take notice when you see those numbers.

Few experts are picking the Red Sox to do much this season. Of the 19 writers on ESPN.com, only ten are predicting that the Red Sox will make the playoffs (five said they would win the AL East). None of the 19 are picking the Sox to go to the World Series (five picked the Yanks to win the AL and one chose Toronto). This is understandable given all of the question marks surrounding the Sox.

• Will Schilling and Beckett remain healthy through the season?
• Will Foulke be healthy at all?
• Will Mark Loretta bounce back?
• Will Coco Crisp be able to replace Johnny Damon's offense?
• Will Alex Gonzalez be an automatic out?
• Does Mike Lowell have anything left?
• Which Matt Clement will show up in 2006?
• Will the Red Sox produce any power from the first base position?
• Are Papelbon and Hansen ready to shine in the Major Leagues?
• Can Wily Mo Pena make enough contact to contribute to this team?
• Will David Wells and Manny Ramirez complain about not being traded and ruin the team's chemistry?
• Will Julian Tavarez go Chuck Norris on someone during a game and get suspended for a couple of months?

Here are numbers for the projected staters:

and the bullpen:

Basically, the Red Sox are hoping for the 2004 versions of Schilling and Foulke, the 2005 first half version of Matt Clement and the 2005 version of everyone else.

Please click HERE to read my comments on the 2006 lineup.

2006 MLB Predictions

Players of the Week

Players of the Month