Despite the A-Rod debacle and injuries to Trot Nixon and Nomar Garciaparra, Red Sox fans have reason to be optimistic heading into the 2004 campaign. Both the AL East and the American League will be more competitive this season, but three key additions (Schilling, Reese and Foulke) should make the Sox a better team than the one that came within five outs of the World Series last year. On Sunday night in Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the Red Sox will begin the 2004 campaign against the new-look Orioles. The home opener will be Friday afternoon against the Blue Jays.

The Good News:

The Rotation -- With the addition of Curt Schilling, the Red Sox should have (health permitting), one of the top rotations in baseball this season. Schilling will fill the slot between Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield and Byung-Hyun Kim. The following table shows each Sox starter's average W-L record over the past three years (based on 32 starts per season) and their best seasons between 2001 and 2003. Please note that the averages are based only on starts.

The Bullpen -- The Yankees, not the Red Sox, won the American League East crown last season for one reason only - the Red Sox bullpen. The Red Sox started the season with a closer-by-committee mindset and it took exactly one game for the experiment to fail. Brandon Lyon pitched fairly well in the closer's role during the first couple months of the season, but he eventually had problems holding leads as did everyone else the Red Sox tossed on the mound in the late innings. Mike Timlin was the only member of the Sox bullpen who threw consistently well last season. During the playoffs, Timlin and Scott Williamson were both nearly unhittable (a fact that escaped Grady Little in Game Seven against the Yankees). This season, the Sox have added Keith Foulke (96 saves in 107 opps (90%) and an ERA of 2.42 over the past three years) to serve as the team's closer. Timlin, Williamson and Alan Embree will be a formidable set-up team. Talented righthander Bronson Arroyo is also expected to contribute.

The Defense -- The Red Sox have made only one change to their defensive set but that move should have a big impact this season. Slick-fielding Pokey Reese will take over for Todd Walker at second base in 2004 (once Nomar is healthy). Though Reese will not come close to matching Walker's offensive pop, he will be a major upgrade defensively. Reese will help the Red Sox infield convert more double plays and he will turn many of those slow groundball singles past Todd Walker in 2003 to outs in 2004.

The Spring Positives -- David McCarty has been the biggest Grapefruit League surprise for the Red Sox. McCarty is batting .396 with 7 homers and 17 RBIs this Spring. Cesar Crespo has also been impressive, batting .373 with 22 hits. David Ortiz has picked up where he left off last season. He's smashed 7 homeruns in the Spring while batting .327. Lowe, Schilling and Williamson have all pitched extremely well in the preseason.

The Bad News:

Injuries -- Trot Nixon will begin the 2004 season on the disabled list. The Sox rightfielder is suffering from back problems and will be out until May. Nomar Garciaparra will miss at least the first three weeks of the season because of an injured right Achilles' tendon. This is exactly what the Sox did not need.

The Spring Disappointments -- Jason Varitek has not been a very good spring offensively. The Sox All Star catcher is batting only .179 with 2 RBIs. Mark Bellhorn has been disappointing. The Red Sox are hoping that the native Bostonian will regain his 2002 stroke (27 homers). During Spring Training, Bellhorn has looked more like the player of 2003 that batted .221 with 2 HRs in 99 games. The Blue Jays shelled Pedro in his final Spring start yesterday but that shouldn't be of much concern for Sox fans. Neither Timlin (9.82 ERA in 11 IP) nor Foulke (12.14 in 6 IP) have been successful in the preseason but high ERAs in the Spring are usually not predictive of how a pitcher will perform at the start of the season.

The Competition -- The Yankee acquisitions of Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez will more or less offset the losses of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. The signings of Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon will give the Yankees a set-up team very comparable to the Sox duo of Timlin and Williamson. The addition of Gary Sheffield elevated the Yankee offense to a level more or less on par with the Sox. With these moves only, the Sox and Yankees would have been evenly matched in 2004. Then came A-Rod. With Alex Rodriguez in the fold, the Yankees vaulted themselves (using a big stack of money) into the position of favorites to win the American League pennant. I am fearful that Yankees won't stop with Vazquez, Brown, Gordon, Quantrill, Sheffield and A-Rod. Jose Vidro is playing out the string in Montreal and I'm sure that George Steinbrenner will want to put an All Star in the one position where he doesn't already have one (second base). If Brown breaks down, George will be there with the money to replace him with another Cy Young caliber pitcher. The Yankees have clearly positioned themselves to buy yet another championship. The Orioles, who gave the Sox fits last season, have also improved dramatically with the additions of Javy Lopez, Miguel Tejada and Rafael Palmeiro. They also resigned Sidney Ponson after renting him to the Giants for a couple of months. The Angels will be a serious threat to both the Sox and Yankees for AL supremacy. The Halos, just one year removed from a championship, added two solid pitchers to the rotation (Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar) and the best all-around player in the game (Vlad Guerrero). If they can stay healthy, they are a threat to win their second World Series title in three years.

My Predictions:

AL East: Yankees -- I don't think the Sox can hold up against the 200 million dollar men for 162 games, especially given the fact the Steinbrenner can and probably will add more All Star caliber players before the trading deadline. There is a better than average chance that clubhouse cancers Kevin Brown and Gary Sheffield will cause strife within the Yankee family, especially with all of the other inflated egos, but the stunning talent level should be enough to enable the Yanks to overcome those problems should they arise. The Sox will grab the Wild Card (see below), the Orioles will continue to improve, the Blue Jays, as usual, will challenge for a while then fade away in the late summer and the D-Rays will turn the corner but still finish a distant fifth.

AL Central: Twins -- The AL Central, or Comedy Central as many like to call it, should be a fairly entertaining three-team race between the Twins, White Sox and Royals. The White Sox will fall a few pegs without Colon and I feel that the Royals, though an up-and-coming club, played a bit over their heads last season. The Twins have the most talent, the best pitching and are a proven winner. The Indians have some great young talent and could be competitive in this weak division. The Tigers will improve their win total by about 20 but will remain at the bottom of the weakest division in baseball.

AL West: Angels -- I expect the Angels to bounce back from a weak 2003 season to win the AL West in 2004. As I mentioned above, the Angels have added several key players to a team already loaded with talent. The new players, coupled with better health should put the Angels in the 93 to 96 win range this season. The Mariners have been getting weaker each year and did not make the strong moves in the offseason like their chief AL rivals New York, Boston and Anaheim. I cannot imagine that the A's will continue to win like they have over the past three seasons without Miguel Tejada, Jose Guillen and Keith Foulke. If the A's win close to 100 games again this year, no one will be able to deny that Billy Beane is a genius. The Rangers have made a mockery of baseball. Not only did they give away one of the greatest players of all time, but they will pay a third of his salary for the next seven years and financially support the richest club in baseball. I wish Tom Hicks and his pitiful organization luck in securing the #1 pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft.

Wildcard: Red Sox -- The Red Sox should grab a spot in the playoffs if they can remain relatively healthy (they aren't off to a great start in that category). The Orioles are probably a year away from being true playoff contenders. The Blue Jays are unlikely to get the same kind of year from Halladay, which they will need to be in Wild Card contention. The AL Central will not compete for a Wild Card spot and the A's will have a hard time scoring enough runs to be in the Wild Card hunt. The second place team among the Mariners and Angels should be the Red Sox strongest competition for the Wild Card in 2004.

NL East: Phillies -- Like the Red Sox, the Phillies owe many of their losses in 2004 to the bullpen. This year, they have solved that problem by trading for former Astros closer Billy Wagner. The Phillies lineup isn't exactly scary but Thome should carry the offense. The Braves will of course be in the mix, but the losses of Sheffield, Maddux and Lopez may finally put an end to the Tomahawk Choppers NL East dynasty. The Marlins have a bright future but they overachieved a bit in 2004 and the losses of Derrek Lee and Pudge Rodriguez will be too much to overcome. The Expos will continue to play valiantly but the talent gap will catch up to them. The Mets can only get better. Of course, that's what I said about the Mets last year.

NL Central: Cubs -- The Cubs have made all the right moves in the offseason. They added veteran Greg Maddux to the best starting rotation in baseball. They added some punch to the lineup with Derrek Lee and will have Corey Patterson back from injury. They improved in the bullpen with LaTroy Hawkins. I'm sure for the Cub fans, the season cannot start soon enough. The Astros will secure the Wild Card (see below) and the Cardinals will be in the mix despite not making any major moves. The Pirates, Brewers and Reds will battle for fourth place and try not to lose more than 100 games.

NL West: Padres -- I need to go out on a limb with at least one of my picks so I will predict that the San Diego Padres will win the NL West. The Padres would have been better in 2004 simply by being healthier (Phil Nevin and Trevor Hoffman missed most or all of last season) and more experienced (talented starters Brian Lawrence, Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton will have another year under their belts). The Padres will have Brian Giles for an entire season and David Wells and Sterling Hitchcock should provide veteran leadership to the young pitching staff. Ramon Hernandez will add stability behind the plate. The Padres will benefit from the fact that the Dodgers seem to have all but given up on winning. The Giants will be the favorite to win the NL West but I feel that they have peaked and may take a couple of steps back this season, especially with the Barry Bonds steroids controversy looming. The D-backs and Rockies both have some talent and should be competitive. This is a division where the first place and fifth place teams may only be separated by 10-15 games in the standings by the end of the year.

NL Wild Card: Astros -- The Astros will be an interesting team to watch this season. The additions of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens to a rotation that already included Tim Redding, Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt will give Houston a staff that can be mentioned along with the Yankees, Red Sox, A's, and Cubs as one of the best in baseball. Octavio Dotel should be able to fill Billy Wagner's closer role and with Berkman, Biggio, Bagwell, Hidalgo, Ensberg and Kent in the lineup, the Astros will have no problems scoring runs, especially in the Juice Box.

World Series: Astros over the Angels -- Picking the Red Sox to win the Series would be bad luck and no self-respecting Sox fan would ever pick the Yankees to win it all. The Twins have little chance in the playoffs so that leaves the Angels as my pick to win the American League pennant. I think that the Cubs and Astros will battle in the NLCS with the Astros winning in seven games. This time, Cubs fans will not be able to blame Steve Bartman. The Astros will then top the Angels in seven games. To ensure that Boston fans suffer even when the Sox are not involved, Roger Clemens will win Game Seven, 1-0, thanks to a homerun by Jeff Bagwell.

MVP: Vladimir Guerrero and Jim Thome -- Now that he has left Baseball Siberia, Guerrero should finally get the recognition that he so richly deserves. With Erstad batting in front of him and Anderson and Glaus following him in the lineup, Vlad should drive in 120 runs and score 120 runs. If the Phillies win the division as I have predicted, it will probably be because of Jim Thome. Thome must carry the Phils offense on his back if they are to slide past the Braves and Marlins in the top-heavy NL East.

Cy Young: Curt Schilling and Carlos Zambrano -- With a great offense, a solid group of set-up men and a top-notch closer, Curt Schilling could win 25 games in 2004. Unlike Pedro Martinez, who has become a seven-inning starter, Schilling will pitch into the 8th and 9th innings which means that he will give himself a chance for more decisions. The strikeouts won't hurt his cause either. I was going to select Mark Prior as my NL Cy Young winner but since he is injured, I will go with another young, talented Cub, Carlos Zambrano. The 22-year-old Zambrano showed flashes of brilliance last season but he was still learning to pitch. I expect that 2004 will be his breakout season.

Rookie of the Year: Joe Mauer (Twins) and Khalil Greene (Padres) -- 20-year-old Joe Mauer should play a key role for the Twins this season. The 2003 Minor League Player of the Year will make the jump from AA to the Twins starting lineup. Mauer batted .341 last year in the minors and is a defensive standout. He's batting .321 thus far in Spring Training. Khalil Green appears to have won the starting shortstop job in San Diego. The 24-year-old should give the Padres defensive stability and some offensive production. Greene is batting .345 with a team-leading 16 RBI this Spring.