And so it begins. The series that every Red Sox fan has dreamed about for roughly 50 weeks will get underway on Tuesday in the Bronx. The Sox and Yankees will begin the American League Championship Series on Tuesday and Wednesday night in New York before heading to Boston for games on Friday, Saturday and (barring a sweep) Sunday. If necessary, the scene would shift back to New York the following Tuesday and Wednesday. The Red Sox were 11-8 against the Yankees during the regular season. Boston was 7-3 at Fenway and 4-5 in New York.

Here is my analysis, position by position, of the Red Sox-Yankees series. The analysis comes after the table. Please note that I gave double points where the advantage was exceptionally large.

Position	Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	Advantage
First Base	Kevin Millar	John Olerud
Second Base	Mark Bellhorn	Miguel Cairo
Shortstop	Orlando Cabrera	Derek Jeter
Third Base	Bill Mueller	Alex Rodriguez
Leftfield	Manny Ramirez	Hideki Matsui
Centerfield	Johnny Damon	Bernie Williams
Rightfield	Trot Nixon	Gary Sheffield
Catcher	Jason Varitek	Jorge Posada
DH	David Ortiz	Ruben Sierra
#1 Starter	Curt Schilling	Mike Mussina
#2 Starter	Pedro Martinez	John Lieber
#3 Starter	Bronson Arroyo	Kevin Brown
#4 Starter	Tim Wakefield	Javier Vazquez
Setup	Mike Timlin	Tom Gordon
Closer	Keith Foulke	Mariano Rivera
Middle Relief	Embree, Myers Lowe, Leskanic	Quantrill, Sturtze, Heredia, Loaiza Hernandez
Bench	Mientkiewicz, Kapler, Roberts, Mirabelli Youkilis, Reese	Lofton, Wilson, Clark Flaherty, Crosby
Manager	Terry Francona	Joe Torre
Intangibles	Team Chemistry	History, Home Field
Final Tally	12	10

• First Base: I'm giving the slight edge to the Red Sox at first base because of Kevin Millar's superior offensive skills. Millar was a terror in the second half (.319, 13 HR, 49 RBI) and batted .300 in the ALDS with a homer. Olerud is by far the better fielder, but the Red Sox can counter with gold glover Doug Mientkiewicz if they have a lead in the late innings.



• Second Base: Miguel Cairo had a surprising season for the Yankees (.292) but he clearly does not match up to Mark Bellhorn who only batted .264 this season, but walked 88 times (leading to a .373 OBP), produced 158 runs (runs + RBI - HR) and hit 17 homers. Defensively, Cairo is slightly more sure-handed but Bellhorn turns the double play as well as anyone.



• Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera has been a godsend for the Red Sox. Offensively, Cabrera has been only a small downgrade from Nomar Garciaparra (Cabrera hit .294 with 6 HR and 31 RBI in 58 games with Boston). Defensively, he has been an enormous upgrade from the declining Nomar. As much as I love Cabrera, the advantage at shortstop has to go to Derek Jeter. When the playoffs arrive, Jeter transforms from a perennial All Star to an MVP. Jeter had an excellent season offensively (.292, 23 HR, 78 RBI) despite a terrible April and mediocre May. Jeter doesn't make as many spectacular defensive plays as Cabrera but he's steady and always seems to make the smart play.



• Third Base: Bill Mueller and Alex Rodriguez both had relatively disappointing seasons. Mueller battled injures all season which contributed to the 43 point drop from his league leading 2003 batting average. On the plus side, Mueller has played gold glove caliber defense and his production has been solid (12 HR, 57 RBI in two-thirds of a season). Bill Mueller also had the biggest hit of the regular season for the Red Sox, a bottom of the ninth two run homer to beat Mariano Rivera. Rodriguez had a great year (.286, 36 HR, 106 RBI) but when you average .305 with 52 HR and 132 RBI over the previous three seasons, those stats are disappointing. Disappointing or not, the advantage at third goes to the Yankees.



• Leftfield: It is very ironic that Manny Ramirez, who was placed on waivers (and not claimed by the Yankees) then nearly traded for Alex Rodriguez, had a much better year than A-Rod. Manny's huge numbers (.308, 43 HR, 130 RBI) just might get him the MVP award (though my money remains on Vlad). He's even dazzled the fans with his defense from time to time, including a spectacular, homerun-robbing catch in Yankee Stadium last month. Hideki Matsui isn't a frightening hitter like Ramirez, but his numbers are excellent (.298, 31 HR, 108 RBI) and he always seems to get the clutch base hit when the Yanks need one. Still, the clear advantage goes to Boston.



• Centerfield: Johnny Damon, nearly traded for Carlos Beltran a year ago, regained his Kansas City Royals form this year. Maybe it's the long hair and beard that enabled Damon to increase his average by 31 points, his homerun production by 8, his RBIs by 27 and his runs scored by 20. More importantly, Damon always seemed to have a big hit in his bat at exactly the right time. Bernie Williams is a shell of his former self both offensively and defensively. He's a guy that most pitchers can retire in the clutch.



• Rightfield: If not for Gary Sheffield, the Yankees would be sitting at home watching the playoffs right now. The Yankees won games in the ninth inning what seemed like every night and Gary Sheffield was usually in the middle of the rally. He's also been an ideal teammate (go figure). Trot Nixon battled injuries most of the season but was torrid in September (.429, 3 HR, 8 RBI) in limited action. Advantage, Yankees.



• Catcher: Both Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada are team leaders and solid performers, both offensively and defensively. Varitek had his ups and downs at the plate (.263 with 5 HR and 31 RBI combined in June, July and September, .339 with 13 HR and 42 RBI combined in April, May and August) as did Posada (14 HR, 55 RBI combined in April, July and September, 5 HR and 20 RBI combined in May, June and August). Varitek committed far fewer errors than Posada (2 to Posada's 9) but Posada threw out a slightly higher percentage of baserunners (27% to Tek's 23%). All told, I'd say the catcher position is a draw.



• Designated Hitter: The DH matchup is no contest whether it's Ruben Sierra, Bernie Williams or Kenny Lofton in the lineup for the Yankees. Sierra saved the Yankees from having to play a Game 5 against the Twins and is capable of big homers but his offense (.244, 17 HR, 65 RBI) clearly doesn't match up with Big Papi (.301, 41 HR, 139 RBIs). By the way, Ortiz batted .545 in the ALDS while Sierra batted .167.



• #1 Starter: Mike Mussina had a rough year but seems to have finally put things together. Mussina pitched well in a losing effort in Game 1 against the Twins and was 3-1 with an ERA of 2.14 in September. Curt Schilling, on the other hand, has been great all season and will likely finish second in the American League Cy Young race. Schilling won more than 20 games for the third time in four years and beat the Angels in Game 1 of the ALDS. The Red Sox certainly have the advantage but Schilling's ankle remains an issue. He's been good, but not great in recent starts.



• #2 Starter: Pedro Martinez put some concerns to rest after an excellent start in Game 2 of ALDS. Pedro surrendered three runs against the Angels, but two scored mainly because of a lazy fly ball that fell in between Cabrera and Manny in the 5th inning. Pedro will start Game 2 with a full week of rest under his belt. That can only be good news for the Red Sox. Jon Lieber had a nice comback year for the Yankees (14-8, 4.33 ERA) and was 5-0 with a 3.12 ERA in September. Another interest stat is that Lieber had an ERA of 3.68 at home and 5.19 on the road. Both of his starts (Game 2 and Game 6) would be at Yankee Stadium. Pedro is not the Pedro of old, but he's still better than Jon Lieber. Hopefully, he won't be New York's "Daddy" in this series. That shouldn't happen as long as Terry Francona knows when to take Pedro out of the game.



• #3 Starter: You always worry about a young pitcher making his first playoff start (remember Rick Ankiel?) but Bronson Arroyo looked anything but nervous in Game 3 against the Angels. Arroyo gave up just two runs on three hits in 6 1/3 innings and was in command. Arroyo has been Boston's second best pitcher since the All Star break. He closed the season with an 8-2 record in his last 10 decisions and the Red Sox have won the last nine times that he has taken the mound. On the other side, Kevin Brown has bounced back from a self-inflicted hand injury and a rough start against the Red Sox two weeks ago. Brown gave up just one run in five innings against Toronto in his last regular season start and beat the Twins on Friday night. The Yankees deserve the slight edge in this matchup.



• #4 Starter: Both Tim Wakefield and Javier Vazquez had a rough time in the second half. Wakefield did go 7-5 in the after the break but had an ERA of 5.77, largely due to the 18 homeruns that he surrendered after the break. Vazquez, and All Star, was even worse than Wakefield in the second half with a record of 4-5 and an ERA of 6.92. His strikeout to walk ratio fell from 3:1 in the first half to 2:1 in the second half. If Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez is healthy, he would probably start in Vazquez's place but that doesn't appear very likely. The advantage goes to Wakefield who pitched brilliantly against the Yankees in last year's ALCS.



• Setup: There has been a lot of discussion this year about the number of innings being logged by the Yankees setup/closer combination. Tom Gordon made 80 appearances this season and appeared to be laboring in August. He came back strong in September, however, when opponents batted just .190 against him. Gordon may not have as lively an arm as he did in the middle of the season (11.8 K/IP in June and July, 9.8 K/IP in August in September) but he is certainly getting the job done. Mike Timlin, Boston's most consistent reliever last season, has been anything but consistent in 2004. Timlin started with two awful performances in the first two weeks of the season, pitched extremely well through June, slumped in July and August then pitched well again in September. On Friday, he gave up a game-tying grand slam to Vlad Guerrero after a costly walk. There is no question that the Yankees will have the edge in the setup role unless Timlin can find his 2003 playoff groove.



• Closer: Keith Foulke solidified a spot that was nothing but trouble for the Sox in 2003. Boston's new closer converted 32 of 39 save chances this season on his way to an 2.17 ERA. Unfortunately, Foulke was better early than late this season as his 4.26 ERA in September will attest. Mariano Rivera remains one of the top closers in the game. He had an amazing season and should finish in the top five in the AL MVP race. Rivera converted 53 of 57 save chances and finished with an ERA of 1.94. Like Foulke, however, he did not have a great September (5.91 ERA with an opponent batting average of .341). He did blow a save against the Twins in the ALDS but gave up only two hits in 5 2/3 innings during the series. The Red Sox can take solace in the fact that they have beaten Rivera more than anyone else, but the clear advantage goes to the Yankees.



• Middle Relief: The Red Sox middle relief looks pretty solid. Mike Myers and Alan Embree give the Sox two legitimate lefties and Derek Lowe proved last season and in Game 3 against the Angels that he can get the job done out of the bullpen. For the Yankees, middle relief has been a problem at times. Paul Quantrill led the Yanks in appearances but has been awful since the beginning of August. The Sox batters should be licking their lips thinking about facing Tanyon Sturze, Esteban Loaiza and Felix Heredia. This is why Joe Torre will desperately need his starters to give him at least six innings to get to Gordon and Rivera. The Red Sox middle relief isn't great but they clearly have the edge over New York in this area.



• Bench: In my estimation, the 2004 Red Sox have the best bench of any Sox team in the past 25 years. They can upgrade defensively in three or four positions late in the game (with gold glovers at first base and second base) and have a player in Dave Roberts that is one of the top base stealers in the game today. Even Doug Mirabelli showed offensive prowess this season with 9 HR and 32 RBI in what amounts to less than a third of a season for most players. The Yankee bench counters with Kenny Lofton (when he's not starting), Bubba Crosby, Enrique Wilson, John Flaherty and Tony Clark. This is no contest. Advantage, Red Sox.



• Manager: As was the case last season, the Yankees have a huge edge when it comes to the manager. Though Terry Francona is clearly not as clueless as Grady Little, he does make some moves that make you scratch your head. Joe Torre, on the other hand, always seems to know exactly how to use his roster and how to anticipate the moves of the opposing manager. If Joe Torre had been managing the Sox in Game 7 of last year's ALCS, Pedro would have been out of the game in the 8th and the Sox would have been headed to the World Series.



• Intangibles: Team chemistry is not quite as important in baseball as it is in other sports, but I believe that a team that plays with great admiration for one another will perform much better in pressure situations. The 2004 Sox had great chemistry from day one but things are even better since the departure of Nomar Garciaparra. This team is so closely knit that the best the media could do to stir up controversy was to question why Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez don't hug enough. The Yankee clubhouse has been relatively quiet this season, save for the wall-punching of mega-idiot Kevin Brown. Gary Sheffield has even been called a team leader. The Yankees certainly have the mental edge, in spite of the fact that the Sox outplayed them during the regular season. I don't think that the 2004 Red Sox players care one iota about 1918, but they certainly remember 2003. Then again, the Yankees are certainly under pressure from the boss to win it all this season. Losing to the Sox is not something that would please Big George. History and the home field advantage gives the edge to the Yankees.

I'd like to make a prediction for this series, but I won't. I'm not a superstitious person, except where the Red Sox are concerned and it seems that it would bring on bad karma to pick the Sox. Picking the Yankees to beat the Sox, of course, would be blasphemous. I will say that if Schilling is healthy, the Red Sox are the better team. The Red Sox were better than their 98-64 record and the Yankees were not nearly as good as their 101-61. Based on what I have outlined above, the Red Sox have the starting pitching advantage in five of seven games, though the Yanks are at home in four of those seven. The Red Sox lineup really doesn't have a weakness. The Yankees have Ruben Sierra and Miguel Cairo mixed in with the big hitters. The Red Sox defense is probably better than New York's. It is certainly better with Mientkiewicz and Reese on the field. The Sox also have the top base stealing threat in Dave Roberts. The Yankees are clearly in better shape if they reach the 8th inning ahead or tied in the game. However, the Sox are confident that they can score against Rivera if they find themselves in that situation. Joe Torre will undoubtedly outmanage Terry Francona, but at least Red Sox Nation isn't relying on Grady "6th inning defensive replacement" Little this season. Yes, the Red Sox are the better team this year but they were probably the better team in 1978, 1999 and 2003. Unfortunately, the Yankees always seem to be a string of bloop hits, a bad call, fan interference or a managing blunder away from stealing every playoff series. The key for the Red Sox will be to not let them get that close.