January 15, 2006

Saturday's loss to the Broncos gets my vote as the most frustrating loss in Patriots history. Keep in mind that my recollection of the Patriots dates back to about 1980. The loss to the Raiders in the Divisional Playoff round in 1977 (the roughing the passer game) was a little before my time. The other playoff candidates for "most frustrating loss" were a 7-6 loss in Pittsburgh in the '97 Divisional round, and a 22-17 loss in the '86 Divisional round in Denver. There was also a memorable game in the second to the last week of the 1997 regular season where Drew Bledsoe inexplicably threw an interception as the Patriots were running out the clock. The loss screwed up New England's seeding, setting the stage for the aforementioned 7-6 loss in Pittsburgh. Saturday's game in Denver was so infuriating it was almost surreal. The Patriots turned the ball over five times which led directly to 24 of Denver's 27 points. These were bad turnovers. Two of the fumbles came after fairly soft hits, one by the kicker. Brady threw directly into coverage for his first interception, something he rarely does especially in the playoffs. The second INT was a desperation heave which I can't really fault him for. Troy Brown's turnover on the punt was obviously very uncharacteristic for the veteran. Adam Vinatieri missed a field goal in the fourth quarter, his first missed field goal in the fourth quarter in 22 chances. Tom Brady twice overthrew receivers who were open for touchdowns on two occasions. Then there was the officiating. The pass interference call on Asante Samuel, which should have been an offensive pass interference call on Denver's Lelie, late in the first half turned the entire game around. After another Patriots fumble on the ensuing kickoff led to a Denver field goal. A Bronco offensive linemen moved prior to the snap but the refs missed it. The refs also claimed that Champ Bailey's interception return was fumbled out of bounds and not through the endzone (the pylon is considered part of the endzone). Bailey fumbled at the one yard line and the ball landed about seven yards beyond the goal line. Geometry tells us that the ball went over the pylon.

Let's convert all of the mistakes into points. The first four turnovers netted the Broncos 24 points. Vinatieri missed a fairly easy field goal. The interception by Bailey prevented a chip shot field goal. Now we're at 30 points even if we don't include the overthrows by Brady which turned touchdowns into field goal attempts. That's another eight points lost for a total of 38. Even the best teams give away points during the course of a game, but 38! The Pats should have won this game by two or three touchdowns. During the three championship, ten game winning streak the Patriots have made few big mistakes and they have not had many bad breaks. It was as if ten games worth of mistakes and bad luck hit them all at once on Saturday night. Like I said, it was surreal.

Points off turnovers can be a misleading stat. For example, if a team drives 95 yards for a touchdown following an interception, that is considered points off of a turnover even though it was poor defense not the turnover that caused the points. Denver's 24 points off of turnovers were undeniably the result of New England miscues. Denver compiled only 24 yards of total offense to score those 24 points.

Let me be clear about a couple of things. First, my objective is not to rip the Patriots. This group has won three Superbowls. They gave one away on Saturday, but I am not the least bit angry with the players or the coaching staff. The fact that they could get this far given all of their injuries this season is an achievement in itself. The Patriots are a better team than the Broncos, but in the NFL playoffs you can't make silly mistakes and expect to win. Secondly, I am not looking for any sympathy for the Patriots or their fans. The Pats have had more than their share of breaks during the three championship seasons. Things have a tendency to even out. I am disappointed with the way that this season unfolded but three Superbowls wins in five years is more than I could have hoped for.

Saturday's upsetting loss became even more upsetting on Sunday when the Steelers knocked off the Colts. This means that the Patriots not only lost their chance to return to the AFC Championship, but they would have played the league title game at home against a team that they have beaten three times in the past four years, twice in the playoffs. The Patriots were a much less healthy team when the beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh early this season. I can't imagine that New England would have had any trouble with the Steelers next week. Of course, we'll never know.

No one should be surprised that Peyton Manning didn't get it done against Pittsburgh. Yes, Pittsburgh played well and yes, the Indianapolis offensive line was terrible but Manning showed once again that he is not the guy you want behind center in a big game. Manning is great when it's Week 8 and the Colts are beating the bejesus out of a team like Houston or Detroit. When January rolls around, it's "deer in the headlights" time for Peyton. Tom Brady is leader. Brett Favre is a leader. Peyton Manning isn't. The Colts received two enormous breaks today -- Palomalu's interception that was reversed by replay and the Bettis' fumble -- and still managed to lose. At least the Broncos capitalized on their breaks.

I was actually rooting for the Colts today for two reasons: (1) I knew that a Steelers victory would make the Patriots loss on Saturday at least 50% more painful. I was right. (2) With the Patriots out of the picture, I really would have liked to have seen Tony Dungy make it to the Superbowl. I feel terrible for Dungy. He lost his son just weeks ago and now he must face the stigma of being labeled as a coach who can't win the big one. He hasn't been able to reach the Superbowl with a immensely talented Colts team and the Buccaneers won the title the year after he left Tampa Bay. Add to that the embarrassment of having Peyton Manning wave off the punt team in defiance of Dungy in today's game. Manning made the right decision. It was ludicrous to punt on 4th and 2 down by 18 points with just over a quarter to play. Still, it has to be humiliating when a player ignores your decisions and decides to run the team himself.

I was happy, however, to see Mike Vanderjerk wear (or at least share) the goat horns today. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

If there is one good thing to come out of the Patriots loss, it is the fact that they are now locked into the #21 pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. Had they reached the Superbowl, they would have picked 31st or 32nd. With the 21st pick, the Pats could grab a much-needed cornerback or an offensive lineman. The Pats would love Virginia Tech cornerback Jimmy Williams, but he isn't likely to fall to the 21st pick. Here are a few 2006 mock drafts with the Pats predicted selection in parentheses.

• NFLDraftCountdown.com (Demeco Ryans, OLB, Alabama)
• Football.com (Charles Gordon, CB, Kansas)
• DraftKing.com (Ahmad Brooks, ILB, Virginia)
• DraftNotebook.com (LenDale White, RB, USC)

December 12, 2005

It looked like the Patriots were going to clinch the AFC East following Sunday's 35-7 drubbing of the Bills, but Miami's very surprising upset of San Diego left the Pats magic number at one. The Patriots are in no real danger of not winning the division, but it would have been nice to wrap things up and give Bill Belichick three full weeks to give some extra rest to the injured players (which is essentially the entire team). New England is pretty much locked into the #4 seed in the AFC playoffs so once they clinch the division, they can use the starters sparingly. Hopefully, that will happen next week.

Assuming the Patriots finish with the #4 seed in the AFC Playoffs, they would host a first round playoff game against the top Wild Card finisher (the #5 seed). Right now, that team is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Personally, I would rather play Jacksonville than any of the other Wild Card contenders - San Diego, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. As the #4 seed, New England would play either the #1 seed (Indianapolis) or the #2 seed (likely Denver or Cincinnati) in the divisional playoff round should they win in the first round. The most likely scenario has the Pats visiting Indianapolis in the second round, but they could also play them in the AFC Championship Game (the teams are re-seeded after the first round). A Patriots-Colts AFC Championship Game would draw an enormous television audience and might break some non-Superbowl TV ratings records if the Colts are still undefeated at the time. With all due respect to the other AFC teams, it would be a shame not to have a Colts-Pats AFC Championship.

It was nice to see the Patriots defense dominate over the past couple of weeks. They held both the Jets and Buffalo to less than 200 yards of total offense and only 10 total points (7 of those in garbage time in Buffalo). These numbers must be taken with a grain of salt because the Jets and Bills are terrible offensively. Still, the performance is encouraging. The front seven looks very good. The secondary is still of major concern. Needless to say, With Dillon, Faulk and Ashworth all back in the lineup, the Patriots are a completely different team offensively. If Matt Light can return to the lineup, the Patriot offense will be very dangerous in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots perform next week against a solid Tampa Bay team.

The Colts are the obvious front-runners in the AFC. I think most would agree that the Bengals and Broncos are a notch above New England, San Diego, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville right now. The NFC, on the other hand, is wide open. Seattle has clinched a playoff spot while the Giants, Chicago, Carolina and Tampa Bay have the inside track. Dallas, Minnesota and Atlanta are all in the thick of the race. At 11-2, Seattle has earned the right to be called the favorite, but unlike the Colts, the gap between the Seahawks and everyone else is not large. I think if these eight teams played each other once, there is a good chance that everyone would end up 4-3 or 3-4. We'll learn a lot more about the Seahawks next week when they host Indianapolis. It must be noted that Seattle and Indianapolis have played the two weakest schedules in the NFL this season.

November 10, 2005

The Patriots are in unfamiliar territory heading into the second half of the season. The Pats, who had lost only twice in their last 34 games heading into this season are now 4-4. A brutal first half schedule and a seemingly endless string of injuries have been a deadly combination for the defending World Champs. All is not lost, however. The Patriots are in first place and the competition in the AL East is not patricularly frightening. The schedule also eased considerably in the second half. In the first eight games, New England played five teams who are currently 6-2 or better (and went 2-3). That doesn't include the 5-4 Chargers who could easily be 9-0. In the second half, the Pats play six of their eight games against teams below the .500 mark plus fading Tampa Bay and the Priestless Chiefs. If there are no further casualties, I think the Pats will finish 10-6 or better and win the division.

They will not, however, have home field advantage and even a first round bye is very unlikely. This isn't the end of the world. The Patriots have won in Pittsburgh on the way to the Superbowl twice in the past four years. Denver and Cincinnati are playing well but if the Pats can get fairly healthy, I see no reason why they couldn't beat those teams in January on the road. I think it goes without saying that the Colts are the team that scares me. The Colts tossed the monkey off their backs on Monday night when they scored 40 points and beat the Pats. I am not ready to dub the Colts defense the "new 1986 Bears" like many people are nor was I overly impressed with the running game the other night (James averaged just 3.1 yards per carry). What scares me is the incredible efficiency of their passing game. They seemed to have developed a short pass, ball control offense that keeps defenses on the field and saps the opponent's energy. The Patriots need to fix their problems in the defensive backfield or they will no chance to beat the Colts in January, especially on the road.

The stats really tell the story. Here are New England's NFL rankings last year and through the first half of this season:

                2004    2005
                ----    ----
Total Offense      7       9
Offense - Run      7      28
Offense - Pass    11       2
Offense - Pts      4      14 	
Total Defense      9      31 	   
Defense - Run      6      27 
Defense - Pass    17      27 
Defense - Pts      2      30 	
Turnover Margin    7      22

Turnovers, defense and a consistent running game are the key to winning football games and the Patriots have been poor in all three categories. The Pats are in the bottom six in the NFL in run defense, pass defense and rushing offense. The only good news is Tom Brady and the passing game. Brady is fifth in the league in QB rating and is tied for second in the league in passing yardage. He's thrown 12 interceptions and only 4 interceptions despite being hit more this season than he has in any of his previous four seasons. In fact, I'd venture to say that he's already taken more hard hits this year than he has in any full season as a Patriot. Deion Branch is also having a very nice season. He's on pace to catch 90 passes for about 1,200 yards.

October 11, 2005

The Patriots survived another tough road game to remain in first place in the AFC East. Brady and Vinatieri teamed up yet again for another late fourth quarter victory. The injuries continued to pile up. Richard Seymour didn't play against the Falcons, Corey Dillon left the game late in the fourth quarter and Willie McGinest apparently broke his hand in Sunday's game. In my last set of notes, I listed the ten most important Patriots. If Seymour, Dillon and McGinest miss next week's game, seven of the top nine Patriots (according to my list) would be out of the lineup against Denver. We'll find out later this week who is ready for the Broncos.

Tom Brady is currently 2nd in the NFL with 1,522 passing yards. He is 7th in quarterback rating at 95.1. Surprisingly, Carson Palmer and Drew Bledsoe are in the top three. Eli Manning has a higher QB rating and more TD passes than Peyton so far this season. Deion Branch ranks 7th in the NFL with 30 receptions. Josh Miller is 7th in punting average.

Brady has been remarkably consistent over the past three years. In 2002 through 2004, he passed for a total of 3,764, 3,620, and 3,692 yards. This year, he is on pace for 4,870. His completion percentage is at 65.4%. Brady completed 60.8% of his passes a year ago. What does all of this mean? Well, Brady is going down field more but completing a higher percentage of passes. He seems to be getting better. That's a scary thought for the rest of the NFL.

As a team, the Patriots rank 5th in total offense (4th in passing, 24th in rushing) and 23rd in total defense (22nd vs the pass, 20th vs the run). They are 8th in punt return average and 10th in kickoff return average.

September 25, 2005

The Patriots never cease to amaze me. They went into Pittsburgh without Randall Gay and Tyrone Poole then lost Rodney Harrison early in the game with a leg injury but still managed to hold Ben Roethlisberger to only 12 completions on 28 pass attempts. They lost left tackle Matt Light midway through the game, yet Tom Brady was able to go 12 for 12 for 168 yards in the fourth quarter. They turned the ball over twice inside Pittsburgh's ten yard line, but were still able to score 23 points against one of the league's top defenses. Pittsburgh's tying score late in the fourth quarter gave the Steelers all of the momentum and drove the crowd into a frenzy. Still, the Pats calmly drove the ball down the field in under two minutes for the winning score despite having no timeouts. It was vintage Belichick, Brady and Vinatieri. It was vintage Patriots.

The Patriots outgained the Steelers 425 yards to 269, but in reality it wasn't that close. Two of Pittsburgh's pass plays totalled 134 yards (the TD to Ward and the catch and run that Randle El lateraled back to the Pats). If you take away those two plays, Roethlisberger was only 10 for 26 for 82 yards. Minus those two plays, Pittsburgh averaged just 2.8 yards per play. It could have been much worse for Pittsburgh had the Patriots been able to finish off a few more sacks. They had Big Ben on the run the whole game.

That's not to say this game didn't give me reasons for great concern. The loss of Harrison and Light hurt the Patriots despite the win. Both injuries appear to be serious. In my mind, Harrison is the Patriots fourth most important player and Light ranks about sixth largely because his position is the most important on the offensive line. I would rank the players in order of importance as follows: (1) Brady (2) Dillon (3) Bruschi (4) Harrison (5) Seymour (6) Light (7) Branch (8) Faulk (9) McGinest (10) Koppen. The Patriots are also making a significant number of mistakes right now (penalties, turnovers) and the running game is not what it was at the end of last season. I think the mistakes will stop and the running game will improve, but the injuries are another story.

Why in the world did Bill Cowher not use his final timeout prior to Vinatieri's game-winner? They could have had about 35 seconds to work with. I thought Cowher was supposed to wait until the AFC Championship Game to do things like that.

Speaking of head coaches, ESPN has something called the "ESPN SportsNation Approval Rating" for NFL coaches. Belichick's approval rating is 95%. I'd like to know what those other 5% are thinking. They are either clueless Pats fans or bitter fans of the Colts, Steelers, Jets or Eagles.

September 5, 2005

1. Will Tom Brady remain healthy in 2005? The number one question one year ago is the same this year. The Patriots have proven time and time again that they can adapt to injuries. They have lost key offensive linemen, linebackers, receivers and defensive backs during the past two seasons, but they have been able to patch the holes and win back to back Superbowls. A three-peat will not be possible if the Pats lose Tom Brady for any length of time. It's great to have Doug Flutie back in New England, but I sincerely hope that we don't see much of him on the field this season.
   
   
2. How much will the loss of Tedy Bruschi hurt the defense? The Pats were fine last season without Ty Law. Ted Johnson is gone but Chad Brown is in the fold. David Terrell should be able to fill the shoes of David Patten. The big loss is Bruschi, who is not only a great player, but the emotional leader of the defense. Tedy was always there when the Pats needed a big play. His absence might not only weaken the Pats at linebacker, but could have a domino effect on the rest of the defense.
   
   
3. How will the Patriots perform without Weis and Crennel? The Patriots will miss both Weis and Crennel but I don't think their departure will have a major impact on the team's success. Tom Brady's experience makes him an offensive coordinator of sorts and Belichick is no offensive dummy. I have been more impressed with Crennel than Weis over the past couple of seasons. It is amazing that he was able to maintain the defensive success after losing both starting cornerbacks. But let's keep in mind that this is Belichick's defense. Crennel and Weis did a great job, but Belichick was and is the key to the team's offensive and defensive success. As long as he is there, there is no need to panic.
   
   
4. Will the offensive line be as good as it has been in the past? The Patriots have done a great job replacing departed offensive linemen over the past few years, but will this eventually catch up to them? Last season they lost Damien Woody. There will be a big challenge this season as Joe Andruzzi is replaced by rookie Logan Mankins.
   
   
5. Will the competition in the AFC catch up to the Patriots? I don't think that many NFL experts would disagree that the AFC is the stronger conference right now. Four of the league's five best teams last season were in the AFC. In the NFC, only the Eagles and Packers averaged more than one point per game more than they gave up (the Packers outscored their opponents by less than three points per game on average). The competition will be strong in the AFC and many teams appear to be better in 2005. The Patriots will also be challenged with a brutal schedule. In the first half of the season alone, they play the Chargers and Colts at home and the Panthers, Steelers, Falcons and Broncos on the road. The schedule in the second half is not as difficult overall but will include a pair of December games against the Jets.

Here are my 2005 NFL Predictions.

ESPN's expert panel had mixed feelings on whether or not the Patriots will repeat as NFL Champions, or even AFC East Champions. All 12 ESPN panelists agreed that the Pats will be in the playoffs, but two picked the Jets to win the AFC East. Only three picked the Patriots to return to the Superbowl with two saying that they will win it again. The Superbowl Champion picks were: Colts 5, Eagles 3, Patriots 2, Rams 1, Steelers 1. The strangest pick - Joe Theismann has the Redskins in the Superbowl. Yeah, he's not biased. To read all of the picks, please click HERE.

The Patriots bolstered their offensive line and secondary in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft. New England chose Fresno State guard Logan Mankins with their first round pick (32nd overall). Belichick and company followed with Iowa State cornerback Ellis Hobbs and Toledo guard Nick Kaczur in the third round and Fresno State safety James Sanders in round four. For a full list of the Patriots 2005 draft picks, please click on the following link: ESPN Draft Tracker - Patriots.