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The annual idiocy known as the BCS claimed another couple of victims this season. The Auburn Tigers, despite winning all twelve of their games, will not have a chance to play for a championship. Meanwhile, the Calfornia Bears lost their spot in the Rose Bowl because they won by only ten points on the road in their final game of the season. Auburn, USC and Oklahoma all finished the season undefeated but only two of the three can play for a title because the NCAA has so far refused to add even one extra game to decide a true champion. All three teams have a legitimate argument for being in the BCS Championship Game. The situation was going to be unfair, no matter which team was left out. What happened to the Cal Bears was even more of a travesty. Texas jumped Cal in the final BCS standings and grabbed the Rose Bowl spot because Cal did not beat Southern Mississippi by enough on Saturday night according to the BCS computers and the coaches who voted in the ESPN/USA Today poll. Cal Head Coach Jeff Tedford had a chance to extend the final margin of victory from 10 points to 17 points with 20 seconds left in Saturday's game. He did the classy thing and asked his quarterback to take a knee and run out the clock. Tedford's classy move may have cost his school a trip to the Rose Bowl and several million dollars. It's not that Texas is any less worthy than Cal. Both teams were 10-1 and only lost to a team in the BCS Championship Game so Texas has no less of a reason to claim the spot than Cal. The problem is that the margin of victory in Cal's game with Southern Miss mattered as much as it did. The BCS dodged another bullet when Pittsburgh beat South Florida to take the Big East's automatic bid and a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. At 8-3, Pittsburgh doesn't really deserve a BCS spot but at least they are in the top 25. Had Pitt lost the season finale, 6-5 Syracuse (a team ranked 90th in the nation in total defense and 104th in passing offense) would have been in the Fiesta Bowl.

It's time again for my NCAA Football Playoff Proposal. When I put together my first NCAA playoff proposal in 1999, I really believed that college football was on the path to adopting a playoff system. I could not have been more wrong. The NCAA, the men in the funny-colored sportcoats adorned with their bowl's logo and the university presidents of the top dozen or so power football schools will never allow such a sensible thing as a Division 1-A college football playoff to take place. The aforementioned groups who control college football are like activist judges. They make decisions that suit their own needs even though those decisions run contrary to the desires of 90% of the people involved. Anyway, if college football was in fact like every other sports league on the planet (including all other NCAA football levels, beer league softball, The World Series of Poker and even the WNBA), the playoffs might look a little something like this: 2004 College Football Playoff Proposal.

The Patriots won again this week to improve their record to 11-1. The Pats never cease to amaze me. Even with the injuries at cornerback they have continued to win rather easily. Here are some of the most amazing numbers:

The Patriots are 26-1 in their last 27 games.
Since losing to the Rams in their tenth game of 2001, the Patriots are 46-10 overall and 25-3 at home.
The Pats are 25-2 over the past three years after November 20th.
Tom Brady is 51-13 in his career as a starter. He is 7-0 in overtime games and 6-0 in the playoffs.
The Patriots have scored first in 20 consecutive games (17 in regular season).

I don't think I have ever witnessed a bigger gap between the best team in an NFL conference and the rest of the pack as I have this year in the NFC. The Packers, arguably the second best team in the NFC, lost to the Eagles 47-17 on Sunday and the game really wasn't as close as the score indicates. Meanwhile, the Falcons, the team with the second best record in the NFC, lost to the 4-7 Bucs by a score of 27-0. Minnesota you say? They lost by 10 to the Chad Hutchinson-led Bears on Sunday. They may have to airlift Andy Reid and the coaching staff right out of Lincoln Financial Field if the Eagles lose in the NFC playoffs this year.

The AFC playoffs could be very interesting. If Law and Poole return and if the rest of the team can stay relatively healthy, the Patriots will be the favorites to return to the Superbowl but the Steelers and Colts will make things very interesting. New England has contained Indy in the past, but Manning and Company have taken the offense to a level over the past couple of months that I have not seen in a long time, if ever. Whether or not Pittsburgh maintains the #1 seed in the AFC is the bigger story for the Patriots (Pittsburgh wins the tiebreaker with New England). If the Patriots can move back into the #1 spot, not only would Pittsburgh have to play in Foxboro should the teams meet in the AFC Championship Game but New England would likely play San Diego or a wild card team in the Divisional Playoff round. San Diego visits Indy on December 26th with the winner almost certainly becoming the #3 seed in the AFC. Clearly, the Colts will be a fairly heavy favorite in that game.

First Barry Pepper played Roger Maris in "61*". Now he's going to be portraying Dale Earnhardt in the ESPN movie "3". I fully expect to see "99, the Wayne Gretzky Story" starring Barry Pepper by the end of next year. If he plays Jackie Robinson in a movie called "42", we will know for sure that Pepper has been typecast.

I am disappointed that the Red Sox actually increased their offer to Pedro after he visited with Steinbrenner. I would have reduced the offer by a million a year just for entertaining the thought of playing for the Yankees. I am grateful for everything that Pedro Martinez has done for the Sox and he will always be one of my all time favorites. However, a part of me wants Pedro to sign with the Mets. I can't imagine that tying up $40 million over three years for a guy whose arm could go at any time is a good investment for the Red Sox. Even if Pedro's arm does not fall apart, he is becoming less durable by the day. He's about a 100 pitch per game guy now. I can't imagine him being effective for more than 85-90 pitches by the time the proposed contract ends in 2007. At the same time, I am sickened by the prospect of Pedro pitching for the Yankees. It seemed fitting for Boggs and Clemens. I'd hate to see Pedro in pinstripes.

The negotiations with Jason Varitek have also been more difficult than I expected. It would be very difficult for the Red Sox to pull the trigger on a five year big money contract for a catcher who will be 33 years old next April. Varitek is approaching the age where the abilities of most catchers start to diminish. Signing Varitek for five years is an enormous risk but so is letting him go. Hopefully, the two sides can work out a compromise because the Red Sox would simply not be the Red Sox without their spiritual leader.

Random Notes - November 24, 2004

I couldn't let the Pistons/Pacers/Detroit Fans riot pass without compiling an all new Idiot List. The only problem was limiting the list to only ten (which is why I've added a Dishonorable Mention Category). Here's the list:

10
Big Guy in the Gray Shirt

The rumor is that the enormous man seated to the right of Artest's victim in the stands that was punching Pacers from behind is Ben Wallace's brother. I have not seen any official report as to whether or not that is true. Whoever he is, he checks in at #10 on the Indiana/Detroit Fight Idiot List. He may have avoided making the list had he actually stood toe to toe with the Pacer players rather than repeatedly sucker punching them from behind.

9
Jim Gray

I'm not sure if Jim Gray deserves to be called an idiot (at least not this time), but I gave him a spot in the top ten for his post-game/post-brawl report from The Palace. Even though the fight had been over for at least 30 minutes, Gray was a quivering mess as he recounted the events for ESPN News. Gray has been in the business for a long time and it's not like he was involved in the fight. In fact, he was about the only person there that was not punched by one of the Pacers. How this brawl caused Gray to become the emotional equivalent of a teenage girl whose prom date didn't show up is a great mystery.

8
Fans Throwing Beer and Water

The #8 slot on the Idiot List goes to all of the fans who threw beer, water and popcorn on top of the Pacers as they left the floor. It is simply amazing that so many people were doing it. Hopefully, all of those people were captured on camera and will not be allowed back in The Palace. I guess that's just Detroit being Detroit. You can't spell Detroit without r-i-o-t.

7
Ben Wallace

Ben Wallace gets the #7 slot in this version of the Idiot List for starting the whole incident with a shove to Artest's face. It's not so much the shove that I have a problem with - Artest deserved that much. It's the fact that Wallace continued after him. Artest, the coward that he is, wanted no part of Wallace and scurried away but Big Ben wouldn't let it go.

6
Jermaine O'Neal

The only player who received an excessive suspension, in my opinion, was Jermaine O'Neal. As far as I could tell, O'Neal's only punch was directed at a fan that ran out on the floor and challenged Artest (more on that guy in #5). I actually give O'Neal credit for connecting. As we all know, NBA players are the worst fighters on the planet. My estimate is that about 5% of punches thrown by NBA players actually land on the target. O'Neal certainly deserved a suspension, but the commish should have been more lenient because the fan that Jermaine whacked came onto the floor. However, O'Neal deserves a spot on the Idiot List because his punch was so unneccesary. The guy that Jermaine smacked was roughly two feet shorter (though he and O'Neal may weigh the same).

5
Fat Idiots that Ran on the Court

Next on the list are the two fat slobs in the white Pistons jerseys that ran out onto the court to challenge Ron Artest and the Pacers. How stupid are these guys? Both men (if you can call them men) received shots to the face, courtesy of Artest and O'Neal, though Artest's shot was a glancing blow. Hopefully, the morons will face criminal charges. More importantly, I hope no wacko judge allows the two fatties to sue anyone. If a person runs out onto the playing surface at a live sporting event, he deserves whatever he gets.

4
Stephen Jackson

Apparently, Ron Artest is Stephen Jackson's role model because he followed Artest into the stands and started punching anyone in his path, regardless of whether or not that fan was guilty of anything. In fact, it could be argued that Jackson's behavior was even worse than Artest's because Jackson (a) was not provoked as Artest was and (b) seemed to be on his way to doing more damage if not for a teammate who held him back. If there was ever any doubt that Jackson is a first class idiot, it disappeared on Friday night.

3
Ron Artest

Had Ron Artest gone into the stands to take the down the guy that actually threw the beer on him, I would have a much different opinion of the situation. Artest deserves every bit of his nearly full season suspension because he did not know who threw the beer and randomly attacked the most convenient fan in the area. That happened to be a scrawny, spectacled fan who was actually holding a drink (way to put that St. John's education to good use, Ron). Artest ran away when the gigantic Ben Wallace wanted to fight but he was more than willing to go after a guy that probably weighs 120 pounds soaking wet. Artest also deserves the suspension because he is a ticking time bomb. He's been suspended ten times in five years. If he doesn't get some professional help, he may do this, or something worse, in the future. Even now, he is not apologetic. He's basically a seven year old child trapped in the body of an immensely talented 25 year old man.

2
John Green

America loves to turn idiots into heroes (just look at Michael Moore). The latest person to be rewarded for their malfeasance is John Green, the man who sparked Artest's mad dash into the stands by throwing a beer in the NBA star's face. Green appeared on television several times this week with his sleazy lawyer, asking for sympathy and wondering why the Pistons want to ban him from The Palace for life. Green hinted that he might be looking to sue someone (unreal!). More interestingly, it turns out that tossing beer is about the most innocent thing Green has ever done. He's got a criminal record that includes carrying a concealed weapon, assault and drunken driving as recently as last year [ LINK ]. Sadly, this pile of scum was not locked up long ago. The question is: will Green be charged or will he be let off the hook because so many people think the criminal acts against well paid athletes (especially those who play for division rivals) are not really worth pursuing?

1
Unknown Chair Thrower

There was a lot of punching, grabbing and tossing of non-harmful items on Friday night. It's possible that someone could have been seriously hurt in the melee which is why Artest, Jackson, Mr Gray Shirt and John Green should be charged for their roles. However, flying fists are one thing. Tossing a chair is quite another. The last time I checked the police were trying to track down the person who tossed the chair during Friday's altercation, hitting a 67 year old man in the head. This was the most serious of many serious acts of idiocy. I am crossing my fingers that the police are able to locate this dirtbag and toss him in cell for a while (Frank Francisco has an alibi so he's in the clear).

Dishonorable Mention:

ESPN Shootaround Panel - I was dumbfounded by how thoroughly and completely the ESPN crew excused Artest and the other players who went into the stands. Three of the four argued that Artest did nothing wrong.
Pistons CEO Tom Wilson - Wilson tried to put all of the blame on the Pacers as if his frenzied fans and lax security had nothing to do with it.
Larry Bird - I would think that Bird of all people would apologize for Artest's actions, not defend him so furiously. How disappointing.
Larry Brown and Rick Carlyle - Why were Wallace and Artest still in the game? The Pacers were up by 15 with under a minute left.
Anyone who pays John Green to appear on TV - The media has turned John Green into a celebrity. Green will probably write a book and get his own TV show. The media loves honoring criminals and idiots. Because Green is both, he is a dream come true.

More Notes on the Brawl

Friday's brawl was shocking to watch, but it is not at all surprising that something like this happened. In fact, it was inevitable. In professional sports, the players have been getting more obnoxious over time and so have the fans. Overinflated egos are a problem in all sports, particularly in the NBA where 18 and 19 year olds are treated as superstars the first day on the job. By contrast, most baseball players spend a few years as nobodies in the minor leagues and football players have a minimum of three years of college to mature (though that appears to be changing). Poor fan behavior is also on the rise, largely because fans are seldom penalized for their boorish behavior. Case in point are the two shirtless drunks (a father and son team no less) who stormed from the Comiskey Park stands to pound on Royals first base coach Tom Gamboa. Gamboa suffered a partial loss of hearing in one ear because of the incident, but neither perpetrator was given a jail sentence. The only fan that seems to have suffered for his actions is Steve Bartman, who did nothing wrong.

Most of the people on the Idiot List seem to be pointing fingers at one another rather than taking the blame that they deserve. The vile John Green will probably sue either the Pacers or the Pistons despite the fact that he started the riot. The two tubs of lard that stormed the court will probably sue the Pacers. The NBA Players Union is already challenging the suspensions. There is at least one victim in the entire debacle and that is the guy that Artest first attacked when he jumped into the stands. That man deserves a big settlement and I hope he gets it.

One thing that really bothers me is that the Detroit players and fans caused most of the problems the other night, yet the Pistons will actually benefit from Friday night's events. Ben Wallace started the on court problems when he shoved Artest in the face and then stormed after him. Things seemed to have settled down then Green tossed the cup which started round two. After the scuffle in the stands Artest returned to the court and again things appeared to be calming down when two idiot Piston fans charged the court. This melee was essentially three separate incidents and each was instigated by a Detroit player or fan. The Pistons and their fans will be rewarded for their misconduct because three key Pacers will miss a total of 128 games. The Pistons are essentially being handed the division title. It would be nice to see the Commissioner penalize the Pistons organization for their rather huge role in this fiasco. I would take away five home games (change them to road games) and suspend beer sales at The Palace for a month. I rooted for the Pistons for the first time in my entire life when they played the Lakers in the NBA Finals last year. I won't make that mistake again.

Random Notes - Election Special - November 5, 2004

After more than a year of bickering, the 2004 Presidential Election is finally over. As expected, there was a huge turnout. It was great news that more people were involved in this year's election, even if many of the under 25 voters can't name the Vice President or find America on a world map. The best line I heard from a voter on Tuesday came from a woman in Ohio who said something along the lines of "I have to vote. It's the only way to make the commercials stop." I can't imagine what it must have been like to be in Ohio or Florida this year.

Based on historical averages, the election was fairly close. Based on the 2000 results and expectations, it really wasn't. For the first time since 1992, people really seemed to care who won. Despite my couch sores from the baseball playoffs, I watched about seven hours of election night coverage, flipping between FOX News, MSNBC and CNN.

MSNBC probably had the best coverage of the night. Chris Matthews was uncharacteristically subdued. This was a far cry from the week before when Matthews doted all over Bill Clinton upon the former President's first return to public life following his heart surgery. Matthews compared Clinton to Lazarus coming out of the tomb and commented "Ooooh, he's sooo thin." He sounded like a teenage girl seeing Justin Timberlake for the first time. It was priceless.

FOX's coverage provided some of the best comedy of the night. Brit Hume simply couldn't subtract to get the actual difference in votes between Bush and Kerry. He always seemed to be off by either 10,000 or 100,000. FOX frequently cut away from the panel to visit with their poll specialist (whose name now escapes me). This man seemed to be stifling belches and coughs all night long. Then there was the impossibly annoying-voiced Susan Estrich who repeatedly predicted Kerry comebacks. The LA Clippers should use her this season when they fall ten games behind in the playoff race.

CNN easily won the battle of the graphics, but little else. It was amusing late in the night when CNN absolutely refused to give Ohio to Bush. Even when the President moved ahead by 150,000 votes with 99% of precints reporting, CNN dubbed Ohio "Too Close to Call." In fact, I think they still have the 2000 election as "Too Close to Call." I was also worried about Larry King. He was still there at 4:00 am EST and I assumed that he needed to back in the coffin before the first sunlight.

I didn't check in with CBS, but I assume that Dan Rather was sobbing uncontrollably by the end of the night.

I give John Kerry credit for not challenging the 150,000 vote difference in Ohio. Many of his supporters wanted him to dispatch the lawyers (all I can think of is the flying monkeys from the Wizard of Oz). Kerry and Edwards should be credited for not entertaining the sore loserism and grassy knoll theories that we've seen in the past. That's a good lesson for a country whose citizens seem to fire up a lawsuit every time something doesn't go their way.

Within a day of the election, Susan Sarandon was complaining that the election was rigged. She was babbling something about 3,000 miscounted votes in Ohio. Apparently, she didn't get the news that her guy lost that state by 150,000 and the country by almost four million. Sarandon's comments are the equivalent of saying that the Patriots lost Superbowl XX (Bears 46 Patriots 10) because of a bogus holding penalty.

Now that John Kerry has lost the election, maybe he can attempt to become a real Red Sox fan rather than simply pretending to be one for political gain. I still don't know who Kerry was talking about when he referred to "Manny Ortiz" but whoever he is, he sounds like a heck of a hitter.

Apparently, several Hollywood actors said that they would leave the country if Bush won the election. All I can say is, "do you need a ride to the airport?" John Kerry may have damaged his chances of winning the election by aligning himself with the Hollywood and music industry elites. It's one thing to appear with the mild-mannered and patriotic Bruce Springsteen. It's quite another to align oneself with the likes of Whoopi "Zero Class" Goldberg, Cameron "Cradle Robber" Diaz, Susan "I'm his wife not his mother" Sarandon, Sean "Saddam used me as a prop" Penn, Alec "Repuplican politicians should be stoned to death" Baldwin and Sean "P Dopey" Combs. I heard an interview where Combs claimed to be a "disenfranchised voter." It quickly became obvious that he didn't know what the word "disenfranchised" meant.

I would have paid anything to be in the room with billionaire George Soros as the election results rolled in. Soros spent something on the order of $25 million to defeat President Bush in this election. As a Bush supporter, I don't take any pleasure in the disappointment of Kerry supporters, but I do take enormous pleasure in the frustration of arrogant billionaire elites like Soros who think they are more important than the voters. Soros, in case you don't know, was born in Hungary, moved to America when he was 26, made billions thanks to the American way and now spends every waking hour bashing our country's foreign policy. Soros would probably be earning $1 an hour in some Hungarian slum if not for America. "Despicable ingrate" is the best phrase that I can come up with.

Michael Moore might claim otherwise, but he must be the happiest guy in the world right now. The Bush victory gives Moore the opporuntity for more books, more movies, more lies and more cheeseburgers over the next four years. I'm fine with the fact that Michael Moore hates President Bush. Those people are a dime a dozen. What separates Moore from the rest, other than his ability to completely ingore factual information, is his complete disdain for America, the American people and the US Armed Forces (July 18th Notes on Moore). In fact, Osama Bin Laden's speech last week sounded very much like a Michael Moore speech. I thought I would give you a chance to see if you could tell the difference. Below are seven quotes from either Moore or Bin Laden. See if you can guess which America-hater they came from. The answers are at the bottom of this page.

"Despite entering the fourth year after September 11, Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth from you."

"[George H. W. Bush] passed on tyranny and oppression to his son, and they called it the Patriot Act, under the pretext of fighting terror."

"The Iraqis who have risen up against the occupation are not 'insurgents' .. They are the Revolution .. and their numbers will grow, and they will win."

"It never occurred to us that the commander in chief .. would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face these horrors alone .. because he thought listening to a child discussing her goat .."

"[Americans] must now sacrifice their children until enough blood has been let that maybe, just maybe .. the Iraqi people will forgive [America]."

"[George H. W. Bush] did well placing his sons as governors and did not forget to pass on the expertise in fraud .. to Florida to use it in critical moments."

"The motivation for war is simple. The U.S. government started the war with Iraq in order to make it easy for U.S. corporations to do business in other countries. They intend to use cheap labor in those countries, which will make Americans rich."

The only thing worse than the Hollywood elites is the smarmy Europeans. One viewpoint that I absolutely cannot respect is the one which states that America's reputation in the world needs to be restored. America does not need to apologize to the world (I am quite comfortable calling the French and Germans "EuroTrash") for removing from a power one of the most prolific mass murderers since Hitler. Americans have the right to question whether or not American troops should go to war. Whiny European or North American countries consumed by jealousy who are not commiting troops to the mission have absolutely no right to criticize. If they want to side with a dictator, that is their business, but they should keep their cowardly, corrupt mouths shut. If they say anything, it should be a thank you to America for putting an end to the Hussein Family's reign or terror. The United Nations, specifically the French, should be apologizing to the Iraqi people for helping Saddam rip them off using the Oil for Food Program.

The headline on the front page of Thursday's edition of Britain's Daily Mirror newspaper read "How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?" Yes, England, we Americans are dumb. So dumb that our government's leadership includes a Queen. Oh wait, that's you. Now I've got it. We're so dumb that we cannot solve the problem of dental hygiene. No, that's you again. Give me time and I'll figure it out. I'm DUMB after all. The headline has proven to be great publicity for the magazine. People around the globe are contacting the Daily Mirror and asking for a copy of the cover including some Americans who wouldn't know individual or national pride if it hit them in the face.

If there is a third group, in addition to the Hollywood elites and the EuroTrash, that I'd love to shut out of the American public's political discussion over the next four years, it is the Ivy League and MIT professors. I am so disgusted by these "intellectuals" poisoning the minds of American college students. My guess is that seven out of ten Ivy League professors have a more favorable opinion of Adolf Hitler than George W. Bush (this isn't even a joke). It's only getting worse. Over the past three years, there has probably been more anti-American sentiment coming out of Columbia University than Tehran.

I read a post from a guy on the ESPN Red Sox Message Board who was complaining because Curt Schilling endorsed President Bush. He claimed that Schilling had "ruined" what he had "waited his whole life for" (the Red Sox World Series Championship). I'm sure this whiny loser wasn't bothered at all when John Henry, Tom Werner and Theo Epstein publicly backed John Kerry. I myself couldn't care less who these three men support for President. They are a great management team who delivered a World Series Championship to Boston and I will always be grateful. If Henry, Werner and Epstein want to act as toadies for Kerry, it won't bother me one bit as long as they continue building winning baseball teams. The wimp on the ESPN Message Board should extend the same courtesy to Curt Schilling who put his career on the line to win a World Series.

QUIZ ANSWERS: 1. Bin Laden, 2. Bin Laden, 3. Moore, 4. Bin Laden, 5. Moore, 6. Bin Laden, 7. Moore

Random Notes - September 27, 2004

Terry Francona probably managed the Red Sox right out of a chance to win the American League East last week. On Thursday night, he threw Byun-Hyung Kim into a two-run game in the ninth inning against the Orioles. Kim promptly gave up two runs. The Sox rallied, but lost by � you guessed it � two runs. On Friday, Francona left a gassed Pedro Martinez in the game four batters into the eighth inning. This was long enough for Pedro to give up the tying and go-ahead (and eventual winning) runs. The game reminded me of Game Seven of last year�s ALCS. Not only was Pedro left in the game too long, but the final Yankee run against Pedro scored on a cheap bloop hit (last year, it was the tying run). Francona�s bad managing doesn�t compare to Grady�s atrocious managing but it still makes me wonder if the Sox can win a championship with Francona at the helm.

The good news is that the two wins over the weekend put the Sox on the brink of clinching the AL Wild Card. Clearly, winning the division would have given the Sox a tremendous edge in the playoffs. Boston and New York have the best home records in the American League but are roughly .500 teams on the road. Last weekend in New York, the Yankees outscored Boston by 19 runs in the three games. This past weekend, Boston outscored New York by 12 runs over the three games. The Wild Card could have a silver lining, however, if the AL West winner (presumably the A�s) can finish with a better record than the Twins. The team with the second best record among AL division winners will play the Wild Card team. Given a choice, I think every single person in the Red Sox organization would rather play the A�s than the Twins. Dating back to Game 3 of last year�s AL Division Series, the Red Sox are 11-1 against the A�s including a three game sweep in Oakland this month in which the Sox beat the A�s by at least five runs in every game. The Sox, on the other hand, are 2-4 against Minnesota. More importantly, the team facing Minnesota in the ALDS could see Johan Santana, the best pitcher on the planet since June, two times in a five game series. Winning the division would be great, but I think I would rather start on the road in Oakland than have home field advantage against the Twins.

Very little has gone right for the Red Sox and Cubs this season, but both teams are leading the Wild Card heading into the final week of the season. Both teams are under .500 in one-run games (Boston 16-17, Chicago 19-26) and have suffered a great deal because of injuries (the Cubs to a larger degree) but have survived to this point and may get a second chance to make the dream World Series matchup a reality. A Cubs-Red Sox World Series would be even more intriguing now that Nomar is playing for the Northsiders.

Though I haven�t seen a schedule, my assumption is that the first two games of the ALDS will be played on Tuesday, October 5th and Wednesday, October 6th. In 2002, the AL started on Tuesday and Wednesday while the NL played one series that started Tuesday/Thursday and another Wednesday/Thursday. In 2003, the leagues reversed that schedule. I don�t see any reason why we wouldn�t be back on the 2002 schedule in 2004. The fact that the ALDS begins on Tuesday probably means that Pedro Martinez will start Game One. If Francona does the smart thing (don�t hold your breath) Curt Schilling will be moved up a day in the rotation to pitch on Friday this week, thus allowing Curt to have his normal four days of rest before his first playoff start. Pedro would be pitching with an extra day of rest which should benefit him greatly. My preference, and probably the preference of most Red Sox fans, would be to have Schilling pitching in Game One (and therefore Game Five, if necessary), but making that switch would mean either (a) having Schilling pitch Game One on three days rest OR (b) not pitching Schilling at all this week AND (c) running the risk of Pedro Martinez having a temper tantrum for being bypassed in the rotation. In subsequent rounds, it shouldn�t matter because both pitchers would be slated to start twice in a seven game series unless Francona decides to use Schilling on three days rest. This is certainly a possibility, especially if the Sox #3 and #4 starters continue to have problems.

Whether to go with Martinez or Schilling in Game One is probably less taxing for the manager than deciding who will pitch in Games Three and Four. Bronson Arroyo has been the Red Sox third best pitcher during the second half of the season, but Tim Wakefield and Derek Lowe are both experienced and pitched well in the postseason last year. Wakefield was tremendous against the Yankees. My guess is that Lowe will start Game Three and Wakefield will start Game Four, but that Francona won�t hesitate to go to Arroyo later in the playoffs if either Lowe or Wakefield continues to struggle.

During the Boston College-Wake Forest telecast on Saturday, announcer Pam Ward mentioned, following a bad call in BC�s favor, that the officiating crew was from the Big East Conference. I guess Ward is under the very false impression that having Big East officials on the field is a good thing for BC.

If someone ever puts together a book of obscure football records, BC Head Coach Tom O'Brien will be the runaway record holder for calling the most punts on 4th down and less than five yards to go inside the opponent's 40-yard-line.

There was a fairly interesting 60 Minutes piece (yes, I know that's hard to believe) last week about Bill Belichick and Head Coach John Fox of the Carolina Panthers. I watched the show half expecting Dan Rather to come on and present a memo claiming that the Patriots had in fact not won the Superbowl last season.

The Patriots are now one win away from tying the NFL record for consecutive wins (including the Playoffs) with 18. The Pats could break the record on October 10th against Miami, one of the teams that currently holds the record. The 1972-73 Dolphins, the 1989-90 49ers, the 1941-42 Bears and the 1933-34 Bears all won 18 consecutive games.

Random Notes - September 6, 2004

The Patriots will put their 15 game winning streak on the line Thursday night in Foxboro against the Colts. The NFL opener features the two teams that battled for the AFC Championship last January. According to Vegas, the Patriots are favorites to repeat as Superbowl Champs and many of the NFL magazines agree. The fact that so many magazines are picking the Pats to repeat is a testament to how good they are because it is typically "uncool" for NFL magazines to pick the team that won the year before. The Eagles and Colts are the trendy picks, but the smart money remains on New England. That is not to say that the Patriots are more likely to repeat than not, only that they are the most likely team to hoist the Superbowl trophy on February 6th in Jacksonville. Do I think that the Patriots will win their third Superbowl in four years? It depends on the answers to these six questions:

Will Tom Brady remain healthy in 2004? Bill Belichick and company have done a nice job building depth on this team. The Patriots have five solid receivers so if one or two are out with an injury, the others can step in. They appear to have three capable tight ends. The offensive line isn't incredibly deep, but there are a couple of experienced players that are capable of filling in for an injured starter. The Patriots have excellent depth on defense, especially at linebacker. Asante Samuel could easily fill in for Poole or Law, at least in the short term, at cornerback as he did last season. The Patriots can't afford to lose Corey Dillon for a long period of time, but Kevin Faulk could carry the load for a few games. The one player that the Patriots absolutely cannot afford to lose is Tom Brady. Not only is Brady the team leader and the best offensive player on the team, but the Patriots really don't have an adequate backup if Brady suffers a serious injury. Rohan Davey has not been impressive in the preseason and so far the Patriots have not made a move to get an experienced backup (I've heard Doug Flutie's name mentioned in the rumor mill). There is a reason why I gasp whenever Brady gets hit.
Will we see the Corey Dillon of old? Many people think that the Patriots could actually be better in 2004 than they were in 2003, mainly because of the addition of Corey Dillon. Antowain Smith did a nice job for the Patriots, but was not a guy that defenses feared. Dillon could be that fearsome presence. If the Patriots establish a more consistent running attack, the field will open up for the Pats speedy receivers and tight ends. Dillon, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 1999 and 2000 has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry over the past three seasons. That begs the question: has the 29-year-old Dillon lost a step or was his decreased productivity a product of playing for the Bengals and not being very happy doing it? Even at 4.0 yards per carry, Dillon would be a huge upgrade over Smith's 3.5 yards per rush last season.
Will Roosevelt Colvin return to full health? The severity of the hip injury which cost Roosevelt Colvin nearly his entire 2003 season makes you wonder if he will ever be the same player again. Colvin was one of the top pass rushers in the game in 2001 and 2002 with 10 1/2 sacks in each season. If he regains his pre-injury form, it could transform the Patriots defense. The 2003 Patriots did a decent job rushing the passer (41 sacks) but no one else on the Patriots defense is a bona fide pass rushing specialist like Colvin. Colvin's pass rush abilities will make the Patriots secondary even better, provided that he's healthy. Because the Patriots have depth at linebacker, Colvin will be able work his way back slowly. Only time will tell if he be the player that he was prior to the injury.
Will the new rules on pass coverage negatively impact the Patriots? During the offseason, the NFL decided that tough, physical football was not good for the game so they have decided to crack down on defensive backs making contact beyond five yards. This is great news for "girlie man" receivers like Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison, but terrible news for physical players like Ty Law. I think that the new rules will have negative ramifications for Law and the Patriots defense, but could help the team overall because the smallish Patriots receivers should benefit from the rule. The new rules could also benefit the Patriots because Tom Brady is a master of timing patterns and with contact virtually outlawed (no pun intended) beyond five yards, Brady should see more distance between receivers like Deion Branch and Troy Brown and the secondary. New England's speedy receivers - Bethel Johnson comes to mind - should also find it easier to run deep patterns.
How much will the loss of Ted Washington hurt the Patriots? It was tough to see Damien Woody leave the Patriots, but the offensive line played very well without him, especially in the Superbowl. Ted Washington, on the other hand, was a tremendous loss for the Patriots. The Patriots were a very good defense when Washington was out. They were a great defense when he played. There will be heavy pressure on veteran Keith Traylor and rookie Vince Wilfork to fill the enormous shoes of the 365 pound (at least) Washington. Nose tackle is the one area where the Patriots are expected to be weaker in 2004 than they were in 2003. On the other hand, the statistics prove otherwise. The Patriots defense held opponents to an average of 3.6 yards per carry in 10 games with Washington and 3.5 yards per carry in games without Washington. It should also be mentioned that Washington is 36-years-old and has missed 20 of this last 32 games because of injury.
Will Ty Law be a "happy camper" or a disruption? Ty and the Patriots feuded during the offseason over Law's contract. At one point Law said "I no longer want to be a Patriot. I can't see myself putting on that uniform again." Law decided not to hold out and will play this season, which is likely to be his last in a Patriots unform (the Pats are likely to release him before next season's $12.5 million salary cap hit). The question is: will Law play with the same heart and desire that he did last year or will he "pull a Nomar" and poison the locker room. As a team leader, Law could have a very big negative impact on the Patriots if he so chooses.

Here are my 2004 NFL Predictions. Picking the Patriots to win the Superbowl is the safe choice, but where's the fun in that?

2004 NFL Predictions
Division	Winner	Comments
AFC East	New England	Pats should win the division by 2 to 3 games if they are healthy
AFC North	Baltimore	The Ravens only weakness is the passing game
AFC South	Indianapolis	Jacksonville is a serious sleeper in this division
AFC West	Kansas City	With any defense at all, the Chiefs probably would have been in the Superbowl last season
AFC WC	Denver	Bailey and Lynch immediately give the Broncs one of the best secondaries in the league
AFC WC	Tennessee	Can McNair finally have a healthy season?
NFC East	Philadelphia	The Philly hype has been exaggerated but the defense should be enough to win the division
NFC North	Minnesota	The Vikes will go as far as Randy's attitude takes them
NFC South	Tampa Bay	Gruden will not allow the Bucs to fall on their faces again this year
NFC West	Seattle	Hasselbeck may finally be ready to make "the leap" and become one of the top passers in the league
NFC WC	Carolina	I don't see another Superbowl for the Panthers but this is an up-and-coming franchise
NFC WC	St. Louis	The crack down on defensive back contact will help the Rams slip into the Playoffs
Playoffs
AFC Championship	Chiefs 24 Patriots 20
NFC Championship	Seahawks 20 Eagles 13
Superbowl	Seahawks 31 Chiefs 27

The Red Sox have a simple plan for the final four weeks of the season: lose three fewer games than the Yankees. The Sox are 2 1/2 behind in the AL East heading into Labor Day, but the margin in the loss column is 2 games. As of today, New York has the scheduling advantage. The Yankees play 14 of their final 26 at home while Boston plays only 10 of their last 27 in Fenway. However, if the Red Sox can survive the next three days without losing any ground in the standings, that scheduling advantage disappears. Over the next four days, the Red Sox play three in Oakland while New York plays four with the Devil Rays. This is a great opportunity for the Yankees to gain ground. After these three days, both the Red Sox and Yankees will have 10 remaining home games and the strength of schedule will be relatively even. Of course the six head-to-head matchups (three in Fenway, three in Yankee Stadium) could be the deciding factor. If New York wins the majority of those games, the remainder of the schedule probably won't matter. If the Sox, take four of six, the remaining schedule will be the deciding factor. There is one other issue that could impact the race. The Yankees toughest remaining opponent (other than Boston) is Minnesota. The Twins play three in New York during the first part of the final week of the season. The problem for Boston is that Minnesota is likely to have wrapped up the Central by then and might be "mailing in" the final week of the season while they prepare for the Playoffs. This means that Sox fans should be hoping that the AL Central race tightens over the next three weeks.

Here are the Red Sox and Yankees remaining games (as of 9/6):

BOSTON:
HOME (10) - TB (3), BAL (4), NYY (3)
AWAY (17) - OAK (3), SEA (4), NYY (3), TB (3), BAL (4)
NEW YORK:
HOME (14) - TB (5), BOS (3), TOR (3), MIN (3)
AWAY (12) - BAL (3), KC (3), BOS (3), TOR (3)

Here's how the rotation looks over the remainder of the season if there are no rainouts or changes:

@ Oak (3): Arroyo, Lowe, Martinez
@ Sea (4): Wakefield, Schilling, Arroyo, Lowe
OFF DAY (9/13)
vs TB (3): Martinez, Wakefield, Schilling
@ NYY (3): Arroyo, Lowe, Martinez
vs Bal (4): Wakefield, Schilling, Arroyo, Lowe
vs NYY (3): Martinez, Wakefield, Schilling
@ TB (3): Arroyo, Lowe, Martinez
OFF DAY (9/30)
@ Bal (4): Wakefield, Schilling/Arroyo, Lowe (Sat double-header)

Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote about the Red Sox surge in the AL East: "The Yanks look like Rosie O'Donnell trying to hold off Michael Phelps in the 100 butterfly." I think that is how it looks to most of us, including the most pessimistic of Sox fans. The Yankees are falling apart. By all rights, the Red Sox should already be in first place. The Sox run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) is 87 better than the Yankees, yet Boston is behind because the Yankees have been winning lucky all season and the Sox couldn't catch a break until the last month. ESPN.com calculates each team's expected wins and losses based on run differential. According to this formula, created by stat guru Bill James, the Sox should be leading the AL East by 8 1/2 games. How bad have the Yankees been? Over the past 20 games, they are 9-11 which isn't too awful until you consider that in five of those games, the Yankees were tied or trailing heading into the 9th inning and that New York has been outscored by a total of 27 runs during that time. That 9-11 record is a few bounces from being 4-16.

It is no secret that long winning streaks occur when several players get hot at the same time. This is certainly the case for the Red Sox. Some players like Damon, Ortiz, Ramirez and Schilling have sizzled all season long. Here are some other players that have peaked over the last couple of months:

Jason Varitek is batting .378 with 7 HR and 30 RBIs in 127 at bats since the All Star break. He batted .275 with 10 HR and 34 RBIs in 262 ABs before the break.
Kevin Millar is batting .333 with 9 HR and 40 RBIs since July 1st. He batted .272 with only 5 HR and 21 RBI prior to July 1st.
Bill Mueller is batting .308 with 6 HR and 30 RBI since returning from injury in July. He batted only .262 prior to the injury.
Orlando Cabrera is batting .358 in his last 20 games. He batted .246 in Montreal and under .200 in his first two weeks with Boston.
Pedro Martinez is 4-1 since August 1st with an ERA of 1.94 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 65/9. Pedro was 11-4 with an ERA of 4.15 through July.
Derek Lowe is 4-1 with an ERA of 4.10 since August 1st. Through July, Lowe was 9-9 with an ERA of 5.52.
Tim Wakefield is 7-3 since July 1st with a 47/14 strikeout to walk ratio. Unfortunately, his ERA is 5.19 over that time.
Bronson Arroyo is 5-6 with a 3.65 ERA in his last 15 starts. His strikeout to walk ratio is 81/29 over that time. Prior to that, Arroyo was 2-3 with an ERA of 5.33.
Keith Foulke has given up 0 earned runs in 14 of his last 17 appearances and is 11/11 in save chances since July 20th.
Alan Embree has given up only 4 hits and has not walked a batter in 5 2/3 innings since August 1st.
Ramiro Mendoza has a 1.77 ERA in 20 1/3 innings since returning from injury.
As a team, the Red Sox are batting .292 since the All Star break (6.1 runs per game). They batted .281 prior to the break (5.6 runs per game).
The Red Sox team ERA was 3.88 in August, the lowest since April's 2.95.