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Thank god for the Wild Card. Many fans are not fond of the three division, one wild card format but Boston Red Sox fans should not be among them. The Sox have finished second to the New York Monees seven years in a row but have grabbed the Wild Card in four of those seasons. Twice during that time they have advanced to ALCS. 2004 marks the eighth time in 19 seasons that the Sox have reached the postseason. Prior to 1986, the Sox had only reached the postseason twice in 39 years. As was the case in 1986, the Sox will open the playoffs against the Anaheim Angels (they were called the California Angels back then). The Red Sox have played in ten series since 1986 and have lost seven of them (1-0 against California, 0-1 against the Mets, 1-2 against Oakland, 1-2 against Cleveland and 0-2 against the Yankees). The Sox are 18-33 in playoff games since 1986 thanks to a surreal 1-18 stretch between the Game 6 in 1986 and Game 2 of the Cleveland series in 1999. The Sox are 1-9 in Game 2's and are 4-2 in Game 5's during that time.

This appears to be the most balanced postseason in recent memory. In my humble opinion, I'd say that no team has a better than 15% chance to win the World Series nor less than a 10% chance to win (well, maybe the Dodgers). The Cardinals deserve to be the favorites but Chris Carpenter's injury takes away much of their advantage. The Sox and Astros will not have the advantage of home field in either of the first two rounds, but they have probably been the best teams in their respective leagues over the past six weeks. The Dodgers are probably the weakest of the eight playoff teams but Eric Gagne is a weapon that no other team possesses. The Twins are the least talented overall, but they have the best of the Game 1 starters. I wouldn't be shocked to any of the eight teams win it all. Well, except for the Red Sox, but that would be a different kind of shock.

Here's a brief overview of each first round series:

Red Sox vs Angels: The good news for the Sox is that they avoided Johan Santana, at least in the first round. The bad news is that they have to travel across the country once, if not twice this week. I like the Sox in this series for one reason, Curt Schilling. Schilling is the perfect guy to have on the mound to start a series and to pitch a decisive game on the road should we get to a Game 5 (by the way, he was 2-0 against Anaheim this season). Jarrod Washburn had an ERA of 6.10 against the Sox this year. Games 2, 3 and 4 are a little scary. Pedro Martinez appears to have run out of gas and Tim Wakefield has been wildly inconsistent. Bronson Arroyo has been excellent (8-2 with a 3.60 in his last 20 starts) but playoff pressure is not the same thing as regular season pressure. Vladimir Guerrero was devastating in September (.371 with 10 homers) and will probably take home the AL MVP. He terrorized the Sox with a 4-for-4, 2 HR, 9 RBI game on June 2nd but the Sox kept him in check otherwise. I like Schilling to win Games 1 and 5 and for the Sox to pick up one of two in Fenway.
Prediction: Red Sox in 5

Twins vs Yankees: There is nothing scarier in this postseason than the though of facing Johan Santana twice in a five game series. All Santana has done is go 13-0 with a 1.18 ERA since the All Star break. Opposing batters hit .154 against him over that time and his strikeout to walk ratio was nearly 6:1. The Twins also have a top-notch closer in Joe Nathan (44/47 saves and a 1.62 ERA) so the it will not be that easy for the Yankees to win games in the ninth inning (do they win any other way?). As for the Yankees, their rotation is in such disarray that Jon Lieber will start in Game 2. The good news for the Bombers is that the Twins lineup is very underwhelming. No Twin hit more than 25 homers, had more than 37 doubles or drove in more than 81 runs. I think Santana will win two low-scoring games and like the Sox, Minnesota will win one of the three games that their ace does not pitch.
Prediction: Twins in 5

Astros vs Braves: Back in April I picked the Houston Astros to win the World Series. [LINK]. By mid-August, the Astros had fallen nearly out of contention (they were a 60-1 bet to win the World Series in Vegas at that time) and my prediction, like so many others I have made, looked like a bomb. Since then, the Astros have rocketed (pun intended) from oblivion to a playoff team and a serious contender to win the World Series. Andy Pettitte didn't work out, but Roger Clemens has gained a second wind (4-0, 2.57 ERA in September) and workhorse Roy Oswalt is a 20 game winner. Brad Lidge stepped into the closers role after Houston traded Octavio Dotel and he has responded with 28 saves in 30 chances. Carlos Beltran joins Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman and Kent in a lineup that is aging but still very potent. The Braves, of course, won their division again after being written off for about the fifth year in a row. Atlanta has four solid, though unspectacular starters, each with between 13 and 15 wins, between 8 and 9 losses and an ERA of between 3.28 and 4.28. Offensively, the Braves lost some clout with the loss of Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez but offset some of that lost offense with J.D. Drew, who hit .305 with 31 homers and 93 RBIs. The Astros have never won a playoff series. I think this is the year that streak will end.
Prediction: Astros in 4

Dodgers vs Cardinals: The Dodgers proved last week that they are a resilient team. In seven games last week, the Dodgers trailed going into the ninth inning in six of those games (they trailed by two runs going into the eighth inning in the other game). St. Louis closer Jason Isringhausen did blow seven saves in 54 chances this season but the Cardinals bullpen is not nearly as likely to wilt as the god-awful Colorado and San Francisco bullpens. Adrian Beltre has had a spectacular season (.334, 48 HR, 121 RBI) and Eric Gagne is the best relief pitcher since Dennis Eckersley in the late 1980s but no other Dodger should really scare the Cardinals. The loss of Chris Carpenter in the first round hurts the Redbirds but the rest of the rotation is solid. Offensively, the Cardinals are frightening. Rolen, Pujols and Edmonds combined for 122 homers, 344 runs and 358 RBIs and each batted over .300. Then there's Edgar Renteria and Larry Walker. Jeff Weaver is starting Game 2 for the Dodgers. That's all you need to know about the Dodgers chances.
Prediction: Cardinals in 3

Red Sox September Statistics