The Patriots will put their 15 game winning streak on the line Thursday night in Foxboro against the Colts. The NFL opener features the two teams that battled for the AFC Championship last January. According to Vegas, the Patriots are favorites to repeat as Superbowl Champs and many of the NFL magazines agree. The fact that so many magazines are picking the Pats to repeat is a testament to how good they are because it is typically "uncool" for NFL magazines to pick the team that won the year before. The Eagles and Colts are the trendy picks, but the smart money remains on New England. That is not to say that the Patriots are more likely to repeat than not, only that they are the most likely team to hoist the Superbowl trophy on February 6th in Jacksonville. Do I think that the Patriots will win their third Superbowl in four years? It depends on the answers to these six questions:

1. Will Tom Brady remain healthy in 2004? Bill Belichick and company have done a nice job building depth on this team. The Patriots have five solid receivers so if one or two are out with an injury, the others can step in. They appear to have three capable tight ends. The offensive line isn't incredibly deep, but there are a couple of experienced players that are capable of filling in for an injured starter. The Patriots have excellent depth on defense, especially at linebacker. Asante Samuel could easily fill in for Poole or Law, at least in the short term, at cornerback as he did last season. The Patriots can't afford to lose Corey Dillon for a long period of time, but Kevin Faulk could carry the load for a few games. The one player that the Patriots absolutely cannot afford to lose is Tom Brady. Not only is Brady the team leader and the best offensive player on the team, but the Patriots really don't have an adequate backup if Brady suffers a serious injury. Rohan Davey has not been impressive in the preseason and so far the Patriots have not made a move to get an experienced backup (I've heard Doug Flutie's name mentioned in the rumor mill). There is a reason why I gasp whenever Brady gets hit.
   
   
2. Will we see the Corey Dillon of old? Many people think that the Patriots could actually be better in 2004 than they were in 2003, mainly because of the addition of Corey Dillon. Antowain Smith did a nice job for the Patriots, but was not a guy that defenses feared. Dillon could be that fearsome presence. If the Patriots establish a more consistent running attack, the field will open up for the Pats speedy receivers and tight ends. Dillon, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 1999 and 2000 has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry over the past three seasons. That begs the question: has the 29-year-old Dillon lost a step or was his decreased productivity a product of playing for the Bengals and not being very happy doing it? Even at 4.0 yards per carry, Dillon would be a huge upgrade over Smith's 3.5 yards per rush last season.
   
   
3. Will Roosevelt Colvin return to full health? The severity of the hip injury which cost Roosevelt Colvin nearly his entire 2003 season makes you wonder if he will ever be the same player again. Colvin was one of the top pass rushers in the game in 2001 and 2002 with 10 1/2 sacks in each season. If he regains his pre-injury form, it could transform the Patriots defense. The 2003 Patriots did a decent job rushing the passer (41 sacks) but no one else on the Patriots defense is a bona fide pass rushing specialist like Colvin. Colvin's pass rush abilities will make the Patriots secondary even better, provided that he's healthy. Because the Patriots have depth at linebacker, Colvin will be able work his way back slowly. Only time will tell if he be the player that he was prior to the injury.
   
   
4. Will the new rules on pass coverage negatively impact the Patriots? During the offseason, the NFL decided that tough, physical football was not good for the game so they have decided to crack down on defensive backs making contact beyond five yards. This is great news for "girlie man" receivers like Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison, but terrible news for physical players like Ty Law. I think that the new rules will have negative ramifications for Law and the Patriots defense, but could help the team overall because the smallish Patriots receivers should benefit from the rule. The new rules could also benefit the Patriots because Tom Brady is a master of timing patterns and with contact virtually outlawed (no pun intended) beyond five yards, Brady should see more distance between receivers like Deion Branch and Troy Brown and the secondary. New England's speedy receivers - Bethel Johnson comes to mind - should also find it easier to run deep patterns.
   
   
5. How much will the loss of Ted Washington hurt the Patriots? It was tough to see Damien Woody leave the Patriots, but the offensive line played very well without him, especially in the Superbowl. Ted Washington, on the other hand, was a tremendous loss for the Patriots. The Patriots were a very good defense when Washington was out. They were a great defense when he played. There will be heavy pressure on veteran Keith Traylor and rookie Vince Wilfork to fill the enormous shoes of the 365 pound (at least) Washington. Nose tackle is the one area where the Patriots are expected to be weaker in 2004 than they were in 2003. On the other hand, the statistics prove otherwise. The Patriots defense held opponents to an average of 3.6 yards per carry in 10 games with Washington and 3.5 yards per carry in games without Washington. It should also be mentioned that Washington is 36-years-old and has missed 20 of this last 32 games because of injury.
   
   
6. Will Ty Law be a "happy camper" or a disruption? Ty and the Patriots feuded during the offseason over Law's contract. At one point Law said "I no longer want to be a Patriot. I can't see myself putting on that uniform again." Law decided not to hold out and will play this season, which is likely to be his last in a Patriots unform (the Pats are likely to release him before next season's $12.5 million salary cap hit). The question is: will Law play with the same heart and desire that he did last year or will he "pull a Nomar" and poison the locker room. As a team leader, Law could have a very big negative impact on the Patriots if he so chooses.
   
   

Here are my 2004 NFL Predictions. Picking the Patriots to win the Superbowl is the safe choice, but where's the fun in that?

The Red Sox have a simple plan for the final four weeks of the season: lose three fewer games than the Yankees. The Sox are 2 1/2 behind in the AL East heading into Labor Day, but the margin in the loss column is 2 games. As of today, New York has the scheduling advantage. The Yankees play 14 of their final 26 at home while Boston plays only 10 of their last 27 in Fenway. However, if the Red Sox can survive the next three days without losing any ground in the standings, that scheduling advantage disappears. Over the next four days, the Red Sox play three in Oakland while New York plays four with the Devil Rays. This is a great opportunity for the Yankees to gain ground. After these three days, both the Red Sox and Yankees will have 10 remaining home games and the strength of schedule will be relatively even. Of course the six head-to-head matchups (three in Fenway, three in Yankee Stadium) could be the deciding factor. If New York wins the majority of those games, the remainder of the schedule probably won't matter. If the Sox, take four of six, the remaining schedule will be the deciding factor. There is one other issue that could impact the race. The Yankees toughest remaining opponent (other than Boston) is Minnesota. The Twins play three in New York during the first part of the final week of the season. The problem for Boston is that Minnesota is likely to have wrapped up the Central by then and might be "mailing in" the final week of the season while they prepare for the Playoffs. This means that Sox fans should be hoping that the AL Central race tightens over the next three weeks.

Here are the Red Sox and Yankees remaining games (as of 9/6):

• BOSTON:
  HOME (10) - TB (3), BAL (4), NYY (3)
  AWAY (17) - OAK (3), SEA (4), NYY (3), TB (3), BAL (4)
• NEW YORK:
  HOME (14) - TB (5), BOS (3), TOR (3), MIN (3)
  AWAY (12) - BAL (3), KC (3), BOS (3), TOR (3)

Here's how the rotation looks over the remainder of the season if there are no rainouts or changes:

• @ Oak (3): Arroyo, Lowe, Martinez
• @ Sea (4): Wakefield, Schilling, Arroyo, Lowe
• OFF DAY (9/13)
• vs TB (3): Martinez, Wakefield, Schilling
• @ NYY (3): Arroyo, Lowe, Martinez
• vs Bal (4): Wakefield, Schilling, Arroyo, Lowe
• vs NYY (3): Martinez, Wakefield, Schilling
• @ TB (3): Arroyo, Lowe, Martinez
• OFF DAY (9/30)
• @ Bal (4): Wakefield, Schilling/Arroyo, Lowe (Sat double-header)

Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote about the Red Sox surge in the AL East: "The Yanks look like Rosie O'Donnell trying to hold off Michael Phelps in the 100 butterfly." I think that is how it looks to most of us, including the most pessimistic of Sox fans. The Yankees are falling apart. By all rights, the Red Sox should already be in first place. The Sox run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) is 87 better than the Yankees, yet Boston is behind because the Yankees have been winning lucky all season and the Sox couldn't catch a break until the last month. ESPN.com calculates each team's expected wins and losses based on run differential. According to this formula, created by stat guru Bill James, the Sox should be leading the AL East by 8 1/2 games. How bad have the Yankees been? Over the past 20 games, they are 9-11 which isn't too awful until you consider that in five of those games, the Yankees were tied or trailing heading into the 9th inning and that New York has been outscored by a total of 27 runs during that time. That 9-11 record is a few bounces from being 4-16.

It is no secret that long winning streaks occur when several players get hot at the same time. This is certainly the case for the Red Sox. Some players like Damon, Ortiz, Ramirez and Schilling have sizzled all season long. Here are some other players that have peaked over the last couple of months:

• Jason Varitek is batting .378 with 7 HR and 30 RBIs in 127 at bats since the All Star break. He batted .275 with 10 HR and 34 RBIs in 262 ABs before the break.
  
  
• Kevin Millar is batting .333 with 9 HR and 40 RBIs since July 1st. He batted .272 with only 5 HR and 21 RBI prior to July 1st.
  
  
• Bill Mueller is batting .308 with 6 HR and 30 RBI since returning from injury in July. He batted only .262 prior to the injury.
  
  
• Orlando Cabrera is batting .358 in his last 20 games. He batted .246 in Montreal and under .200 in his first two weeks with Boston.
  
  
• Pedro Martinez is 4-1 since August 1st with an ERA of 1.94 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 65/9. Pedro was 11-4 with an ERA of 4.15 through July.
  
  
• Derek Lowe is 4-1 with an ERA of 4.10 since August 1st. Through July, Lowe was 9-9 with an ERA of 5.52.
  
  
• Tim Wakefield is 7-3 since July 1st with a 47/14 strikeout to walk ratio. Unfortunately, his ERA is 5.19 over that time.
  
  
• Bronson Arroyo is 5-6 with a 3.65 ERA in his last 15 starts. His strikeout to walk ratio is 81/29 over that time. Prior to that, Arroyo was 2-3 with an ERA of 5.33.
  
  
• Keith Foulke has given up 0 earned runs in 14 of his last 17 appearances and is 11/11 in save chances since July 20th.
  
  
• Alan Embree has given up only 4 hits and has not walked a batter in 5 2/3 innings since August 1st.
  
  
• Ramiro Mendoza has a 1.77 ERA in 20 1/3 innings since returning from injury.
  
  
• As a team, the Red Sox are batting .292 since the All Star break (6.1 runs per game). They batted .281 prior to the break (5.6 runs per game).
  
  
• The Red Sox team ERA was 3.88 in August, the lowest since April's 2.95.