Despite a couple of handfuls of heartbreaking losses, the Red Sox reached the All Star break in first place
in the Wild Card standings and only two games behind the Yankees in the American League East. As expected,
the chief Wild Card competition resides in the West with the A's only one game behind the Sox in the Wild Card
race and the suddenly hot Angels just 5 1/2 back. The Sox stack up very well with the Yankees at this point
in the season, but that is nothing new. If the past is any indication, the Yankees are on the brink of their
usual midseason shopping spree. Don't be surprised if George Steinbrenner picks up three All Stars in the
next two weeks. The A's have the best 1-2-3 starting rotation in the majors, but they lack the offensive
firepower of their chief American League competition. The Angels are very dangerous, but they have been very
inconsistent this season. They will need to sizzle the rest of the year to return to postseason play in 2003.
The Red Sox and Yankees have similar schedules the rest of the way.
Boston's scheduling advantages over New York are:
- The Sox play four more home games than New York in the second half
- Six of the nine remaining games between the two teams will be at Fenway
- The Yankees have six games remaining against the first place Royals. The Red Sox are finished
playing Kansas City in 2003.
New York's main scheduling advantage over the Red Sox is:
- The Sox have 14 games in the second half against Oakland and Seattle. The Yankees play those teams
only six more times.
Boston's scheduling advantages over Oakland are much more apparent:
- The Red Sox will play 41 of their 69 second half games at home where they are 28-12. Oakland will
play 40 of their 69 remaining games on the road where they are 18-23. Most of this difference occurs
over the next two weeks with the Sox on an 11-game homestand and the A's on a 12-game road trip. The Red Sox will
play 30 of their next 43 games at home so this is clearly the time to press their advantage.
- The Red Sox have a total of 11 second half games against the lowly D-Rays and Tigers. The A's
play that duo only nine more times.
Oakland's main scheduling advantage over Boston is:
- The Red Sox will play the Yankees and Mariners a combined 16 times in the second half. Oakland
will play those teams only 11 more times.
If the Red Sox can match their first half home and road winning percentages, they will finish the season
with a record of 98-64. If the Sox split their games with New York, Seattle, Oakland, Philadelphia and
Anaheim and win two-thirds of their matchups with the rest of the league, they would also finish 98-64.
That should be enough to at least capture a Wild Card spot given Oakland's high road to home game ratio
and the number of games that Anaheim would need to make up.
Clearly, the Red Sox need to acquire a legitimate #3 starter before the July trading deadline expires.
The Sox could possibly survive the regular season and earn a playoff spot with Wakefield, Burkett and Mendoza
at the end of the rotation, but clearly Boston could not feel comfortable heading into a first round
playoff series with Tim Wakefield and John Burkett pitching Game #3 and Game #4 in a five game series. I
doubt that Pedro would pitch on three days rest in the first round. Ironically, Jeff Suppan may be a
logical acquisition for the Red Sox. Other names rumored are Chuck "Tawny Smacks Me Up" Finley, Sidney
Ponson, Kris Benson-Benson-Benson, Steve Trachsell and Andy Ashby. With the White Sox back in contention,
Bartolo Colon appears to be off the trading block unless the ChiSox fall quickly in the next two weeks.
It looks like the Yankees are close to acquiring Armando Benitez from the Mets, who they will use as a
set-up man for Mariano Rivera. Leave it to the Yankees to pick up an All Star closer to use as middle
reliever. But it's not about the money, is it Yankee fans? As Dr. Evil would say "Riiiiiiight."
I will of course be very happy if the Red Sox get to the World Series and play Game 7 at Fenway
Park, but I will never defend the foolish policy that allowed the American League to steal home
field advantage in the World Series by winning the meaningless All Star Game.
It will be a dark day for baseball if a National League team loses Game 7 of the World Series to
an American League team with an inferior regular season record. Offering home field
advantage on an alternating basis is stupid as well, but at least it is a fair system. Giving the home
field advantage to the team with the best regular season record is the logical solution, but Major
League Baseball and logic seem to be on divergent paths.
This week's sign of unabashed greed comes courtesy of the Seattle Mariners who began promoting a
legalized ticket scalping page on their official website last month. The website enables Mariner
season ticket holders that reside outside of Seattle city limits to resell their seats to the public
for any price they wish (I visited the site last week and noticed tickets selling for more than
five times face value). The Mariners collect about 25% from each transaction. That's
25% on tickets that they have already sold once. Meanwhile, if you are unwilling to pay the scalper's
rate and would like to buy Mariner tickets online or over the phone, you must go through Ticketmaster.
The Mariner box office will not sell individual tickets (other than to large groups) over the phone.
If you want to buy tickets from someone that actually knows the layout of the ballpark, you are out
of luck. The Seattle Mariners are not alone. The Diamondbacks and Giants also allow greedy season
ticket holders to scalp their seats online. I'm sure it won't be long before every team in the majors
with high demand for tickets is doing the same thing.
The Red Sox 25-8 win over the Marlins last month was one of the most awesome displays of hitting
that I have ever seen. The scary thing is that the outcome could have been much worse for the Marlins.
First of all, since the game was played at Fenway, the Red Sox did not bat in the bottom of the ninth. The
Sox also had two players thrown out at home plate, two Sox batters flew out to the warning track and
the Marlins saved another hit and at least a couple more runs with a diving catch in center field.
The Sox could have easily been the first major league team to score 30 runs in a single game.
Here are my All Star Break baseball awards:
AL MVP
- Carlos Delgado (Blue Jays): Delgado may be a hard sell for MVP by the end of the season if the
Blue Jays continue to fall out of contention. Otherwise, Delgado is the clear-cut choice. He has
already hit 28 home runs and driven in 97 while batting well over .300. The Blue Jays would be
fighting it out with the D-Rays for last place without Delgado's presence in the lineup.
- Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners): Ichiro doesn't hit homeruns or drive in many teammates, but his
contributions at the plate, in the field and on the basepaths have been phenomenal.
Ichiro is leading the league in batting average at .352 and has 25 stolen bases in 31 attempts.
The Mariner offense does not possess the power that it once did and Ichiro's ability to get on
base is critical to Seattle's success.
- Nomar Garciaparra (Red Sox): Nomar has been mired in a horrible two-week slump, but prior to
that period, he was swinging the bat with the authority I had not seen since the wrist injury two
years ago. Despite the prolonged slump, Nomar is batting .319 with 13 homers and 51 RBI's and
has well over 200 total bases already. After a terrible April, Garciaparra's defense has been
nearly flawless. The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball and Nomar is the catalyst.
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols (Cardinals): Was there any doubt? Albert Pujols has put up sensational numbers
during the first half of the season, helping the Cardinals stay near the top of the National League
Central. Pujols is batting .368 with 27 homers and 86 RBI's. It's hard to believe that this is
only his third year in the majors.
- Barry Bonds (Giants): Barry won't hit 73 homeruns this year nor will he win the batting title,
but he will have a great chance to win yet another MVP award. Bonds reached 30 homers and eclipsed
60 RBI's by the break while batting .316. With Jeff Kent now in Houston, Barry's value to the Giants
is immeasurable.
- John Smoltz (Braves): John Smoltz has now officially completed a "Full Eck." That is, he has made the
transition from great starting pitcher to untouchable closer. Smoltz has 34 saves for the first place
Braves and an infintesimal 0.95 ERA. Fellow Brave Gary Sheffield is an MVP candidate as well, but I
think that the Braves could survive without Shef. I'm not sure the same could be said for Smoltz.
AL Cy Young
- Esteban Loaiza (White Sox): Nothing has been more surprising than the brilliant season that
journeyman Esteban Loaiza is putting together. With an 11-5 record and an ERA of only 2.21, the Cy
Young is Loaiza's to lose at this point. It won't hurt his chances if the Sox can stay in contention
for the rest of the season.
- Roy Hallyday (Blue Jays): Roy Hallyday has been pretty much the only bright spot on a terrible
pitching staff. He has won 13 consecutive decisions after starting the season 0-2. His ERA of 3.41
does not compare with Loaiza's but is good enough to merit Cy Young consideration.
- Jamie Moyer (Mariners): Little did the Red Sox know when they traded Moyer for Darren Bragg in 1996
that he would be one of the most successful pitchers in baseball for the next 7 years. The crafty lefthander
is 12-5 and has an ERA of 3.02. He could steal some Cy Young votes from Loaiza and Hallyday if the
White Sox and Blue Jays fall out of contention. Team success isn't as important in the Cy Young
voting as it is in MVP balloting, but it can make a difference. Just ask Pedro and Derek Lowe.
NL Cy Young
- Woody Williams (Cardinals): Williams has managed to win 12 games despite pitching for a team
whose bullpen has turned blowing saves into an art form. His 3.01 ERA is equally impressive.
- John Smoltz (Braves): See above
- Dontrelle Willis (Marlins): The rookie phenom is 9-1 with a 2.08 ERA and is not first on my list only
because his win total may end up a bit low for Cy Young consideration. Willis will probably start 14
times in the second half. If he can win nine of those, he will get serious consideration for the award.
Rookies of the Year
- AL - Hideki Matsui (Yankees): I hate to give any award to a member of Ring-Buyers, but Matsui has
had a great rookie season both at the plate and in the field. I hope the Yankee fans appreciate
Godzilla's .299 average and 66 RBI's, even if the boss doesn't.
- NL - Dontrelle Willis (Marlins): By a landslide.
Managers of the Year
- AL - Tony Pena (Royals): I had the Royals pegged for a 90 loss season and here they are running away
with a weak AL Central Division. Pena was the Sporting News Minor League Manager of the Year in 2001 and
is a lock to add an American League Manager of the Year Award to his trophy room this season.
- NL - Bob Brenly (Diamondbacks): The NL race is still wide open, but right now I would have to vote for
Brenly. Despite an endless string of injuries, including Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, the D-backs
have positioned themselves for a Wild Card berth and even a Division title with 70 games remaining in the season.
Felipe Alou, Larry Bowa, Bobby Cox and Frank Robinson are all contenders for this award.