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NCAA Tournament Notes - March 19, 2006

Four teams seeded 7 or lower advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. The victories by Georgetown and Wichita State qualify as only minor upsets in my book but not many predicted either George Mason or Bradley in the Sweet Sixteen. George Mason advanced by beating two of last year's Final Four participants, Michigan State and North Carolina. Bradley beat the Big XII champs and a Pittsburgh team that advanced to the Big East finals. The number of second round upsets have been fairly consistent in recent years. Since 1998, no less than three and no more than five teams seeded higher than #6 have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Bradley is the first team seeded 13 or higher to advance to the third round since Oklahoma in 1999. Like the first round, I was struck not so much by the number of upsets but by the competitiveness of the lower seeds. The higher seeds won 11 of 16 games in the second round but LSU, UConn, Villanova and UCLA were all just one shot away from losing to teams seeded 8 or lower.

The Missouri Valley conference certainly proved that it was worthy of the four NCAA bids. Bradley is a long shot to beat Memphis, but Wichita State is even money to advance to the Elite Eight. Exactly half of the teams in the Missouri Valley (2), the ACC (2) and the Big East (4) survived the first two rounds. Two of six SEC teams in the tournament and just one of four from the Big XII advanced to the third round. The biggest collapse came from the Big Ten where all six NCAA participants were eliminated. All year long, ESPN has been bragging about the Big Ten and the Big East. The jury is still out on the Big East, but the Big Ten showed that they are not one of the two or three best conferences. This was not entirely unpredictable. No one in the Big Ten could win on the road this year. That trend continued in the NCAA Tournament.

I cannot stand hearing commentators claim that the Selection Committee was justified in taking George Mason over Hofstra simply because George Mason advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. You can certainly make the argument that both George Mason and Hofstra deserved bids, but there was simply no justification for taking George Mason and not Hofstra. George Mason is in the tournament because their athletic director was on the Committee. I don't care if they win the National Championship. It was a slimy move no matter which way you slice it. Plus, who's to say that Hofstra wouldn't have won two games?

I love the "points off turnovers" graphic that is flashed from time to time on NCAA telecasts. When Duke and UConn play, I think there should be a "points off bad calls" graphic. The refs bailed out UConn again today.

I was quite amused by CBS's game score graphic in the Bradley-Pittsburgh game. CBS uses abbreviations for the school names and in this particular game, the score read "Brad Pitt". That loud sound you heard was Jennifer Aniston's television crashing to the floor.

When is the NCAA going to change the rules and stop allowing players to call timeout while they are in midair about to fall out of bounds? It is ridiculous. In order to call a timeout, a player should be required to have at least one foot on the floor in bounds.

Three teams that have had problems getting through the first two rounds in the recent past played outstanding second round games and advanced. I'm talking about Boston College, Florida and Gonzaga. BC broke a five game second round losing streak on Saturday. Gonzaga had gone four consecutive years without reaching the Sweet Sixteen and lost in three of those years to lower-seeded teams. Florida's recent past has been even more ignominious. In the past five years, the Gators have lost twice in the first round as a #5 seed and three times in the second round to a lower-seeded opponent (once each as 2, 3 and 4 seed).

The Atlanta bracket went pretty much according to plan. Three of the top seeds - Duke, Texas and LSU - advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. The #6 seed West Virginia was only a slightly more popular choice than Iowa in that group of four teams. If not for Duke, this bracket would make for a pretty good football tournament.

There will be a very interesting matchup on Thursday in the Oakland bracket when UCLA battles Gonzaga. UCLA was brilliant in the first game but barely scraped by in the second round. By contrast, Gonzaga nearly lost to Xavier in the first round but won pretty comfortably in the second round. The Zags proved on Saturday that they can beat a good team even when Adam Morrison is not on top of his game. Six Gonzaga players scored in double digits against Indiana. I found it absolutely amazing that Indiana hit 16 three pointers to Gonzaga's two and still lost by ten points. Bradley will attempt to become the first 13 seed to reach the Elite Eight. Teams seed 12 or higher are 1-18 in the third round since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

There are lucky wins, there are incredibly lucky wins and there is UConn's win over Kentucky on Sunday afternoon. A lot of people felt that UConn was a cut above the rest coming into this tournament. I think UConn's first two games in this tournament have proven that they are among the best teams in the country but not any better than the other major contenders. In most years, you could cut the final 16 into three groups: an "A list" comprised of great teams that have the best chance to win it all, a "B list" containing teams with a chance to win the title but not on the level of the A group, and a "C list" comprised of the teams that really have no chance to win it all and very little chance to reach the Final Four. Last year, North Carolina, Duke and Illinois were clearly on the A list. Kentucky may have been in that group as well. This year, I don't think there is an A list. I don't think there are any great teams in the historical sense. There is a B+ list that includes: the four #1 seeds plus UCLA, Gonzaga, Florida, BC, Texas, LSU and maybe Washington. Georgetown and West Virginia are on the B- list with Bradley, Wichita State and George Mason on the C list.

I am glad I am not the only one who was dumbfounded by Tennessee being granted a 2 seed. In the Yahoo Sports Pick 'em game, only 2.8% of the particpants chose Tennessee to advance to the Final Four. Of the other #2 seeds, 23% chose UCLA and 17% chose Ohio State and Texas. It's hard for me to understand how the general public can see something that ten guys who are supposed to experts in their field cannot. UConn's #2 seed last year was pretty bad but the Tennessee seeding decision was far worse. I'm not anti-Tennessee in any way. Bruce Pearl has done a remarkable job this season and they are going to be a force in the future. I'd just like to know what type of temporary insanity caused the Committee to seed them that high.

After nearly throwing away a great season with eight minutes of bad basketball on Thursday, the BC Eagles bounced back and played an outstanding game on Saturday. Montana simply had no answer for Craig Smith who scored 22 points and had 16 rebounds. Jared Dudley scored 20 points and Tyrese Rice ended his shooting slump by going 4 for 6 from behind the three point arc. Sean Williams blocked 5 shots and Louis Hinnant had only one turnover for the second game in a row. The only Eagle that isn't playing well right now is Sean Marshall who is 2 for 10 from the floor with 7 points in the tournament so far. BC didn't exactly slay the dragons in beating Pacific and Montana to reach the Sweet Sixteen, but they deserve a lot of credit for overcoming the fatigue that surely existed after playing three tough ACC games the previous weekend, flying to Boston, flying to Salt Lake and then playing a double overtime game. BC will have six full days of rest before facing Villanova on Friday - at sea level, just one time zone away.

If Boston College keeps winning, there is a decent chance that they will play old Big East foes Villanova, Georgetown and Connecticut in the next three rounds.

BC-Villanova is a tremendous matchup. You have BC's powerful inside game against Villanova's potent outside shooting. Here are the keys to the game for BC:

  1. Minimize the Three Point Deficit -- By Three Point Deficit, I am talking about the number of points Villanova scores on three pointers minus the number of points BC scores on threes. During the season, Villanova averaged 9.1 successful three point shots per game compared to 5.8 for BC. This is about ten points per game. BC can probably live with similar numbers on Friday night. If Villanova hits 13 or 14 three pointers, however, it will probably be a long night for the Eagles. BC can offset Villanova's outside shooting advantage if they continue to drain the three pointers themselves. They hit only 26% from behind the arc against Pacific but drilled 47% of their attempts against Montana.


  2. Hope for the Right Refs -- I'm not talking about bad calls. I'm talking about how the game is officiated. BC will want to play a physical game with a lot of banging around in the paint. Villanova will hope for more of a fast tempo finesse game. If the referees allow for a physical game, it will be to BC's advantage. If they call every touch foul, BC's chances of winning will sink rapidly because (a) they will not be able to play their usual aggressive style (b) the big men could get into foul trouble and (c) Villanova is an outstanding free throw shooting team and BC is not, so more free throws will probably mean more net points for Villanova. The refs allowed for a physical game on Saturday and BC dominated. It was a bit ridiculous that Craig Smith attempted 23 shots, almost all of them in the paint, and did not go to the free throw line once, but the refs called it that way on both ends of the floor so I have no complaints.


  3. Sean Marshall Needs to Step Up -- On the second to last weekend of the regular season, Sean Marshall played a phenomenal game at NC State. He and Sean Williams were the best players on the floor that day. Since then, Marshall has been in a funk. He's not making outside shots and not playing great defense. As BC fans know, Marshall is one of those guys whose confidence ebbs and flows. The good news is that when he gets off to a quick start in a game, he's usually effective the whole night. The extra rest this week will help all of the Eagles physically. It could help Sean Marshall mentally.


  4. Free Throws, Free Throws, Free Throws -- I couldn't be happier with BC's 31 for 40 performance in the tournament so far. 77.5% might not be stellar for a lot of teams but for BC, it is outstanding. Jared Dudley is 10 for 10 in the NCAA Tournament and 14 for 14 in his last three games. This needs to continue.


  5. Sean Williams Needs to Play More Minutes -- I noticed that the Villanova guards were very comfortable shooting the quick six to eight foot jumper against Arizona on Sunday. The Arizona big men really weren't much of a shot-blocking presence. Sean Williams (and John Oates to a lesser extent) need to make Foye, Ray and Lowry think twice before taking shots within ten feet of the basket. Williams, at times, is even a factor on three point shots.

MARCH MADNESS LINKS

March Madness Home
Tournament Notes -- March 17
Tournament Notes -- March 14
Bracket Notes -- March 12
Bracket Trends Part I
Bracket Trends Part II
Bubble Watch - My Picks
Selection Process
Nicknames 2006


NOTES ARCHIVE

March Madness 3 (3/17/2006)

March Madness 2 (3/14/2006)

March Madness 1 (3/12/2006)

BC, Celtics, Olympics (3/8/2006)

Superbowl XL (2/6/2006)

Sox Lineup, Celts and More (2/1/2006)

State of the Teams Report (12/21/2005)

Sox-Yanks and More (9/22/2005)

Red Sox Notes (2005)

Patriots Notes (2005)

NCAA Tournament (3/21/2005)

NCAA Tournament (3/16/2005)

Superbowl Notes (2/7/2005)

Boston College 19-0 (2/3/2005)

Pats/Celtics (1/26/2005)

Pats-Colts (1/14/2005)

The Newest Red Sox (1/3/2005)

BCS Idiocy and More (12/5/2004)

Pistons/Pacers Fight (11/24/2004)

Election Special (11/5/2004)

World Series Notes (10/28/2004)

ALCS Notes (10/11/2004)

Baseball Playoff Notes (10/4/2004)

Sox Wild Card Chase (9/27/2004)

NFL Predictions (9/6/2004)

Summer Olympics and More (8/31/2004)

AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Races (8/17/2004)

Red Sox Notes (8/1/2004)

Michael Moore, Idiot and Traitor (7/18/2004)

More Crying from Bonds and Grady "Bobble Arm" Dolls (6/24/2004)

Sox Update, LA Luckers News and More (6/8/2004)

Eli "Spoiled Brat" Manning and More (5/9/2004)

UConn's Easy Path to the Title and More (4/6/2004)

Al Skinner and More (3/7/2004)

A-Rod to the Yanks (2/16/2004)

Superbowl (2/1/2004)

Pats Playoffs and More (1/23/2004)

A-Rod Talk and More (1/4/2004)

12/7/2003

11/21/2003

Red Sox Eulogy (10/18)

ALCS Idiot List (10/13)

Red Sox Notes (10/7)

10/2/2003

MLB Playoff Rankings

Fake News from Notre Dame

9/12/2003

Red Sox Report

7/16/2003

6/15/2003

5/5/2003

4/10/2003

3/19/2003

2/20/2003

January 2003

My NFL Sunday Ticket Diary

Sep-Nov 2002

BC-Notre Dame

June 2002

May 2002

April 2002

March 2002

February 2002

January 2002

December 2001

November 2001

October 2001

September 2001

October 2000