I have to hand it to the lower seeds. I have never seen such competitive first round games from the number 13 through 16 seeds. In a repeat of last year, the low seeds were 2-14 in round one with a 13 seed and 14 seed winning. In 21 the prior years, 35 teams seeded 13 or lower won first round games so two major upsets is pretty close to the norm (which is 1.67 per year). However, six other bottom seeds had a legitimate chance to win with a minute left in their game. Xavier, Davidson, Pacific, Winthrop, Murray State and Penn all could have easily won. Another six teams in the 13 seed and under group were competitive. One of those teams was #16 Albany which led #1 UConn by 12 points midway through the second half. This was easily the best I've ever seen the 16 seeds play. Only two teams, Belmont and South Alabama, were blown out.

I wanted to quantify just how competitive those lower seeds were this year so I looked at the average margin of victory in games won by the higher seeded team over the past nine years. Here's the data:

These numbers really show the increased competitiveness of the lower seeds over time. In 1998 and 1999, the average margin of victory (wins only) for a 1 through 4 seed in the first round was about 23 points per game. From 2000 to 2004, the average margin of victory for the top seeds hovered around 17 (except for 2001). In the past two years, the top seeds have won by an average of less than 13 points per game. The closer games haven't translated to many wins for the underdogs but I fully expect these low seeds to start winning more games in the coming years.

As for the middle seeds 5 through 12, it is hard to call a victory by the lower seed an upset. This year, the 5 seeds, 6 seeds and 7 seeds were all 2-2. Strangely enough the 12 seeds (11-13) have outperformed the 10 and 11 seeds (9-15, 8-16) over the past six years. Historically, the 11 and 12 seeds have had similar success in the first and second rounds. As you would expect, the 8 seeds are 12-12 against the 9 seeds over the past six years.

Conference performance is always a big topic of discussion in the early rounds. The ACC led the way with a 4-0 record while the SEC was a surprising 5-1. The Pac Ten also had a nice first round with a 3-1 record. The Big East was 0-3 on Thursday but bounced back with a 5-0 Friday. The Big XII lost twice with higher seeds but #12 Texas A&M beat #5 Syracuse to give that conference a 2-2 record. The Missouri Valley had mixed results (2-2). The biggest disappointment to many was the Big Ten which was 3-3 and nearly lost Ohio State and Indiana.

Four seed BC probably caught a break when #12 Montana upset #5 Nevada on Thursday. However, as a 4 seed last year, BC appeared to catch a break when #12 seed Wisconsin-Milwaukee beat Alabama in the first round. It was anything but a break. Bruce Pearl's team made 11 three-pointers and was 20 for 22 from the free throw line. BC is a better team this year, but there remains a great possibility for an upset because of the fatigue factor. BC will be playing their fifth game in eight days, they will be coming off an emotional double overtime game and they will have traveled somewhere in the neighborhood of 4,000 miles in the past ten days. Add to that the altitude of Salt Lake City which adds to the fatigue.

Second round karma is not on BC's side either. Since 1996, the Eagles are 6-1 in the first round and 0-5 in the second round. BC has an amazing 12-1 record in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 1970 (13-3 in their history).

One of BC's two biggest weaknesses popped up again on Thursday. At times, the Eagles have had problems defending the perimeter. Pacific got back into the game the other day with a barrage of three-pointers. At one point they were 10 for 19 from the arc. The three point shot ruined BC's ACC title run last Sunday and was the main reason why they were knocked out in the second round last year. On the other side of the coin, BC's other weakness, free throws, was more of a strength on Thursday and really saved them from the upset. BC was 24 for 29 from the charity stripe (83%) including 16 for 16 combined from Tyrese Rice, Jared Dudley and Louis Hinnant. Craig Smith missed four of nine from the line but made the two most important free throws to send the game to a second OT. Smith was his usual unstoppable force (25 points, 13 rebounds) and Jared Dudley was on top of his game (23 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 4 steals). Louis Hinnant continues to play amazing basketball. The senior guard scored 14 points on 5 for 7 from the field and dished out nine assists. He turned the ball over just once. In his last 11 games, Hinnant has 60 assists and only 17 turnovers (a 3.5:1 ratio). BC needs more offense from Sean Marshall and Tyrese Rice if they are going to make a deep run in this tournament. The duo was just 2 for 12 from the field on Thursday.

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