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Random Notes - February 1, 2006

The 2006 Red Sox are starting to take shape with the acquisition of outfielder Coco Crisp from the Indians and the signing of free agent shortstop Alex Gonzalez. David Wells remains on the roster and the Red Sox still do not have a legitimate lefthanded reliever so we will see at least a couple more interesting moves before Opening Day. Terry Francona could come up with any number of Opening Day lineups, but here is my best guess:

  1. Crisp, cf
  2. Loretta, 2b
  3. Ortiz, dh
  4. Ramirez, lf
  5. Lowell, 3b
  6. Nixon, rf
  7. Varitek, c
  8. Youkilis, 3b
  9. Gonzalez, ss

Youkilis and Loretta could be swapped depending on how each player performs in Spring Training. Lowell, Varitek and Nixon are likely to be batting 5-6-7 but the order may be different. Nixon will probably bat 7th against lefthanded starters. It depends a lot, of course, on how each man is hitting the ball in Spring Training.

It appears that most Sox fans believe that this lineup is a downgrade from the 2005 team that scored 905 runs. I don't necessarily see it that way. I don't think that anyone can argue that the Sox are not better defensively. Let's look at the changes position by position.

First Base -- Kevin Millar gave the Red Sox next to nothing last season (.272, 9 HR, 50 RBI, .355 on base percentage). That was in 449 at bats. Over the past two seasons, Kevin Youkilis has batted only .265 but has a .376 on base percentage. Youkilis has 8 HR and 44 RBI in only 287 at bats. He has bounced from AAA to the Red Sox and has rarely played several games in a row. I think, given a chance to play four to five games per week, Youkilis will have a batting average in the .290 to .300 range with something close to a .400 on base percentage. It is hard to predict his potential for power numbers but I think he'll hit around 15 homers if he gets Millar's 450 at bats. J.T. Snow isn't known for his offense, but he did hit .327 with Giants in 2004. At the very least, he will be an outstanding defensive replacement in the late innings. Snow won four consecutive gold gloves between 1997 and 2000.
Offensively -- Better, Defensively -- Weaker with Youkilis, Better with Snow

Second Base -- I see absolutely no reason why Mark Loretta will not bounce back from a disappointing 2005 season. Loretta dropped to .280, 3 HR, 54 runs in 105 games last season after posting a .335, 16 HR, 108 run season in 2004. Loretta is one of many Sox recovering from an injury-plagued 2005 season. Loretta missed 57 games last year, most of that due to a left thumb injury. You have to believe that the drop in production was directly related to the thumb problem. Defensively, Loretta doesn't have tremendous range but he is very steady with the glove and turns the double play as well as anyone.
Offensively -- Better, Defensively -- Better

Shortstop -- Former Marlin Alex Gonzalez was last - yes, last - in the majors last season in on base percentage (.291). He batted only .264 with 5 homers. In his career, Gonzalez has struck out four times more often than he has walked. On the plus side, he does have some pop in his bat. He hit 18 and 23 homers in 2003 and 2004, respectively. I cannot explain the dropoff to only 5 longballs in 2005. I certainly hope this dropoff and the implementation of steroids testing is a coincidence. Gonzalez may be a pleasant surprise at the plate and it's not as if Edgar Renteria carried the offense. Defensively, Gonzalez made 16 errors last year (and in 2003 and 2004). He is considered one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.
Offensively -- Weaker, Defensively -- Better

Third Base -- Mike Lowell is one of the many "what if" Red Sox. Lowell averaged .285, 30 HR, 95 RBI in 2003 and 2004. Last year, his numbers sunk like a stone (.236, 8 HR, 58 RBI). Unlike Loretta, the dropoff does not appear to be injury-related. Lowell's defense didn't suffer as he won the NL Gold Glove award last season. Among the projected nine in the Red Sox lineup, Lowell is the biggest wild card. He could bat .230 with 8 homers again or he could take advantage of Fenway and bat .300 with 35 homers. If Lowell does return to his pre-2005 form this season, the Sox offense should be even better than it was in 2004 and 2005. Manny Ramirez has been putting up ridiculous numbers even without a legitimate slugger in the #5 slot. Imagine what Manny could do if Lowell is a 30 HR man.
Offensively -- ??, Defensively -- Better

Centerfield -- The Red Sox will definitely miss Johnny Damon. The Sox tablesetter reached base 252 times last season and scored 117 times. He batted over .300 in each of the past two seasons and drove in an average of 85 runs from the leadoff spot. Covelli Loyce Crisp (aka Coco) put up some pretty nice numbers of his own. Crisp batted .297 and .300 in 2004 and 2005, while averaging 16 HR and 70 RBI. On the down side, he's struckout nearly twice as often as he's walked in his career. Damon, by comparison, had only 22 more strikeouts than walks as a member of the Red Sox. Coco's ability to put the bat on the ball will determine whether or not he can fill Damon's shoes. Crisp was considered one of the best leftfielders in the league last year and has played 188 games in centerfield during his four year career. He should be able to cover as much ground as Damon. His throwing arm cannot possibly be weaker than Damon's.
Offensively -- Slightly Weaker, Defensively -- Same

Last season's offensive success was almost entirely a product of three players (Manny, Papi and Damon) and two of those players will be back in the lineup this season. There is every reason to believe that Crisp will be as valuable as Damon. My expectation is that Coco will have about the same batting average and number of stolen bases as Damon. He'll walk less often but will hit a few more homers to make up for it. We pretty much know what we'll get out of Varitek and Nixon. Loretta should bounce back and I am confident that Youkilis will be on base a lot and provide occasional power. Very little is expected of Gonzalez so anything that he gives the Red Sox will be a bonus. The key to this offense is Mike Lowell. The Sox desperately need a legitimate producer in the #5 spot. If they don't get it from Lowell in the first half of the season, I imagine they will go shopping before the trading deadline.

Next time, I'll preview the pitchers.

The Celtics season reached a lowpoint on Monday night when they were blown out 110-85 by the Minnesota Timberwolves. The blowout, which dropped the Celtics to 18-27 for the season, was the not the worst part. The worst part was seeing recently traded Mark Blount put up 16 points and 10 rebounds and Marcus Banks put up 20 points and 6 assists off the Minnesota bench. I think this was the first time anyone has seen Mark Blount sweat since he signed his $38 million contract a season and a half ago. But fear not Celtics fans, Blount will back to his lazy, whiny ways before long. I doubt that Minnesota will see that kind of effort again until the next time the Wolves play Boston.

Despite the agony of Monday night's game, I am happy about the recent trade. First, I think Wally Szczerbiak is a slightly better fit for the Celtics than Ricky Davis. He's a better complement to Pierce and gives them another legitimate long range shooter. At the very least, he puts the Celtics a little closer to having a well-rounded team. Second, Davis was playing well and working very hard but I see him like a stock that has peaked. This was a good time to trade him. Third, the Celtics saved a little money. I haven't looked at the figures closely but according to the Globe, the Celtics will save a total of about $5 million. Fourth, and most importantly, the trade allowed the Celtics to get rid of Mark Blount. Blount is probably the laziest Celtic I've ever seen. Even drunk, Vin Baker put in more effort than Blount.

The loss to the Suns tonight dropped the Celtics to 18-28. Amazingly, they are only 6 games out of first place in the Atlantic Division and 4 games behind the Wizards for the final playoff spot. It is getting very close to that point in a disappointing NBA season where the fan has to decide if he wants to root for his team to lose. Obviously, I would like to see this team improve and participating in the playoffs would provide great experience for this very young team. On the other hand, if the Celtics are going to miss the playoffs, they might as well be bad enough to (a) have a chance to draft in the top five next season and (b) increase the odds that Doc Rivers will be fired. I have been skeptical of Doc's coaching abilities since Day One, but I was willing to give him a chance this season. The team's performance through 46 games tells me that Doc is not an NBA caliber head coach. Paul Pierce is having maybe the best year of his career and Ricky Davis was exceeding all expectations yet the C's are still ten games under .500. I was not looking for miracles this season, but 18-28 with this talent, raw or not, is inexcusable.

Boston College suffered an agonizing loss to Duke this evening at Conte Forum, 83-81. The Eagles played well in the first 15 minutes or the game and the final 13 minutes of the game. Unfortunately, they gave the game away in the middle 12 minutes as Duke outscored BC 30-13. The Eagles turned the ball over only four times in the second half, but 11 first half turnovers led to several breakaway baskets for Duke. The Eagles also missed four or five layups and failed to rebound a missed Duke free throw in the final minute. Had BC been able to secure the rebound they would have had the ball, down by three points with 40 seconds left in the game.

There was plenty of good news though. Jared Dudley played a monster game (28 points). Akida McLain made a nice contribution off the bench (8 points, 8 rebounds). The Eagles shot 49% from the floor against the #2 team in the country and held Duke to just 44%. BC showed great perseverance as they came back from an 18 point deficit midway through the second half to come within one point in the final 20 seconds. They thoroughly outplayed Duke over the final 12 minutes. Louis Hinnant made four of his five three pointers. The Conte Forum crowd was loud giving BC a real home court advantage for a change. Most importantly, BC proved that they can play toe to toe with one of the best teams in the country.

Lastly, I have to mention the officiating. In a word, it was sickening. Duke shot 37 free throws to BC's 13. The refs called several defensive fouls on apparent offensive fouls by Duke. Two of those were on Craig Smith, who fouled out with about five minutes left in the game. The Duke big men were able to hack away while both Sean Marshall and Craig Smith fouled out. Louis Hinnant and Akida McLain each four fouls. If this game had gone to double-OT, we may have seen some walk-ons. The worst of all was the no-call when Shelden Williams whacked Tyrese Rice as he drove to the basket with under ten seconds left in the game. BC did not get any close calls in the first half. When Duke surged ahead by 15 points, the refs actually called it fairly. When BC made their comeback and the game was in doubt, the zebras became Coach K's lapdog once again. The worst part of this is that this was a home game for the Eagles! I cannot imagine what will happen when BC visits Duke next season. Fans from several ACC schools have been posting on BC message boards warning BC fans about officiating in Duke games. I now feel their pain. No wonder ACC fans seem to get so well. The common bond is that everybody hates Duke.

I have to tip my cap to J.J. Reddick, however. A one point in the game there was a verbal altercation between Reddick and Sean Marshall (more than likely instigated by Marshall). The television replay showed the players shouting at each other and chest bumping. Just a few minutes later, under pressure from Reddick, Marshall fell down (he basically tripped over his own feet) and was called for traveling. I'd guess that about 50% of college players and 99% of NBA players would have bent over Marshall and started trash talking had they been in Reddick shoes. Instead of taking that road, Reddick quickly jumped in to help Marshall to his feet. It was a very classy move.

Despite the loss, BC is still in very good shape to make the NCAA Tournament and remains in contention for a coveted 1-4 seed. BC is 16-5 overall and 4-4 in conference play. Of their remaining eight ACC games, four are against the bottom two teams in the league, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. There a no bad teams in the ACC but if you are going to have to play anyone, it might as well be those two teams. The Eagles also have a non-conference game against Stony Brook. If they finish the season winning five of the last eight in conference play, they will be 21-8 heading into the ACC Tournament. That should be more than enough to gain a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Then again, with BC you never know. This was a team that once finished 10-6 in the Big East and won its division yet was still left out. A 4-4 ACC finish puts them squarely on the bubble.


NOTES ARCHIVE

State of the Teams Report (12/21/2005)

Sox-Yanks and More (9/22/2005)

Red Sox Notes (2005)

Patriots Notes (2005)

NCAA Tournament (3/21/2005)

NCAA Tournament (3/16/2005)

Superbowl Notes (2/7/2005)

Boston College 19-0 (2/3/2005)

Pats/Celtics (1/26/2005)

Pats-Colts (1/14/2005)

The Newest Red Sox (1/3/2005)

BCS Idiocy and More (12/5/2004)

Pistons/Pacers Fight (11/24/2004)

Election Special (11/5/2004)

World Series Notes (10/28/2004)

ALCS Notes (10/11/2004)

Baseball Playoff Notes (10/4/2004)

Sox Wild Card Chase (9/27/2004)

NFL Predictions (9/6/2004)

Summer Olympics and More (8/31/2004)

AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Races (8/17/2004)

Red Sox Notes (8/1/2004)

Michael Moore, Idiot and Traitor (7/18/2004)

More Crying from Bonds and Grady "Bobble Arm" Dolls (6/24/2004)

Sox Update, LA Luckers News and More (6/8/2004)

Eli "Spoiled Brat" Manning and More (5/9/2004)

UConn's Easy Path to the Title and More (4/6/2004)

Al Skinner and More (3/7/2004)

A-Rod to the Yanks (2/16/2004)

Superbowl (2/1/2004)

Pats Playoffs and More (1/23/2004)

A-Rod Talk and More (1/4/2004)

12/7/2003

11/21/2003

Red Sox Eulogy (10/18)

ALCS Idiot List (10/13)

Red Sox Notes (10/7)

10/2/2003

MLB Playoff Rankings

Fake News from Notre Dame

9/12/2003

Red Sox Report

7/16/2003

6/15/2003

5/5/2003

4/10/2003

3/19/2003

2/20/2003

January 2003

My NFL Sunday Ticket Diary

Sep-Nov 2002

BC-Notre Dame

June 2002

May 2002

April 2002

March 2002

February 2002

January 2002

December 2001

November 2001

October 2001

September 2001

October 2000