The following tables evaluate the twelve NFL Playoff participants from a purely statistical
standpoint. I have ranked each team from 1 to 12 (1 being the best) in seven statistical areas:
- Team Passer Rating (based on NFL rating system)
- Average Yards Per Rush
- Opponent Passer Rating
- Opponent Average Yards Per Rush
- Kick Return Score: [Kickoff Return Avg + (2 * Punt Return Average)] - [Opponent Kickoff Return Avg + (2 * Opponent Punt Return Average)]
- Field Goal Conversion Percentage (all kickers)
- Turnover Differential
The total score is simply the sum of all seven rankings. As in golf, the lowest scores are the best.
Below are the statistical rankings, followed by a brief summary of each team's strengths and weaknesses and my
predictions for the upcoming playoffs.
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RANKINGS |
| TEAM |
Total Score |
Passer Rating |
Yards Per Rush |
Def Pass Rating |
Def Yds Per Rush |
Kick Ret Score |
Field Goal Pct |
Turnover Margin |
| Green Bay |
35 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
8 |
| Kansas City |
37 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
12 |
1 |
9 |
1 |
| New England |
38 |
6 |
11 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
11 |
2 |
| Tennessee |
39 |
1 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
| Baltimore |
39 |
12 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
| Philadelphia |
46 |
8 |
2 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
| Indianapolis |
47 |
2 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
1 |
4 |
| Seattle |
49 |
5 |
5 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
12 |
9 |
| Dallas |
50 |
11 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
10 |
10 |
| St. Louis |
53 |
7 |
10 |
6 |
11 |
12 |
2 |
5 |
| Denver |
53 |
10 |
2 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
4 |
10 |
| Carolina |
55 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
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ACTUALS |
| TEAM |
Total Score |
Passer Rating |
Yards Per Rush |
Def Pass Rating |
Def Yds Per Rush |
Kick Ret Score |
Field Goal Pct |
Turnover Margin |
| Green Bay |
35 |
90.5 |
5.0 |
69.0 |
4.1 |
-1.2 |
88.5 |
0 |
| Kansas City |
37 |
92.4 |
4.3 |
70.5 |
5.2 |
17.5 |
80.0 |
19 |
| New England |
38 |
84.3 |
3.4 |
56.2 |
3.6 |
8.5 |
73.5 |
17 |
| Tennessee |
39 |
100.3 |
3.3 |
78.2 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
86.5 |
13 |
| Baltimore |
39 |
64.7 |
4.8 |
66.4 |
3.4 |
-1.4 |
85.0 |
3 |
| Philadelphia |
46 |
80.5 |
4.8 |
78.7 |
4.5 |
8.6 |
82.8 |
4 |
| Indianapolis |
47 |
99.0 |
3.7 |
81.8 |
4.5 |
-2.5 |
100.0 |
10 |
| Seattle |
49 |
88.2 |
4.4 |
81.4 |
3.9 |
9.5 |
73.3 |
-1 |
| Dallas |
50 |
71.4 |
3.9 |
67.6 |
3.5 |
1.4 |
79.3 |
-4 |
| St. Louis |
53 |
81.0 |
3.6 |
73.3 |
4.8 |
-15.6 |
92.9 |
7 |
| Denver |
53 |
75.6 |
4.8 |
76.2 |
4.2 |
-2.7 |
87.5 |
-4 |
| Carolina |
55 |
79.6 |
4.0 |
74.8 |
4.0 |
-0.8 |
84.2 |
-5 |
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AFC
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 1
Strengths (rank among playoff teams in parens): Defense (pass - 1st, run - 3rd); Turnover Margin (2nd)
Weaknesses: Rushing Offense (11th); Field Goal Pct (11th)
The Pats defense has been incredible since mid-October, especially at home. The New England defense has
allowed just one touchdown (a meaningless one at the end of the Jacksonville game) in their past six games
in Foxborough where they will be playing throughout the AFC Playoffs. The inconsistency of the Patriot
ground game has been well documented (the Pats average a mere 3.4 yards per carry). However, Antowain Smith
has been effective over the past two weeks (33 carries for 195 yards) albeit against weak competition. Given
the soft running game, the Patriots are better prepared to play the #2 or #3 seeded Chiefs and Colts
than the #4 seeded Ravens who are 1st among playoff teams against the run. Ironically, 2002 playoff hero
Adam Vinatieri looks like a liability right now. Punter Ken Walter may actually help the Pats if they face
Kansas City because Dante Hall will not be able to return Walter's shanks out of bounds.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 3
Strengths: Passing Offense (3rd); Kick Return Score (1st); Turnover Margin (1st)
Weaknesses: Run Defense (12th); Field Goal Percentage (9th)
Many people believe that the once seemingly invincible Chiefs are heading for a first round playoff exit.
The Kansas City run defense is horrendous, allowing opponents an average of 5.2 yards per carry this season.
Clearly, the Chiefs will be rooting against the Ravens and Broncos, two teams with great running backs, this
weekend. Morten Andersen is also a weak spot for the Chiefs. Andersen's range is very limited (he's 11
for 11 inside of 40 yards but only 5 of 9 from 40 or more). The Chiefs offense is capable of
exploding, especially at home. Kansas City scored 38 or more points in four of eight games at Arrowhead.
The Chiefs are also very opportunistic (+19 turnover margin) and have the greatest special teams weapon
in the league in Dante Hall (4th in kickoff returns, 1st in punt returns). Another reason for Kansas City's
lack of respect was their schedule. The Chiefs played the easiest schedule in the league in 2003.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 7
Strengths: Passing (1st); Field Goal Percentage (1st)
Weaknesses: Rushing Offense (9th); Defense (run - 9th, pass - 12th); Kick Return Score (10th)
The recipe for Indy's success is no secret - passing, passing and more passing. The Colts aerial attack is
devastating, even against a team with a great secondary like the Patriots. Indianapolis will also look to take
advantage of the fact that they have the best kicker in the game (Mike Vanderjagt has not missed a field goal
all season going 37 for 37). On the other side of the ball, the Colts are a mess. They cannot stop the
pass or the run so they will look to Manning and Company to win offensive shootouts (as they nearly did against
New England). The Colts could be in big trouble this week against the Broncos. Denver destroyed the
Colts two weeks ago in Indianapolis despite the fact that Clinton Portis did not play.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 10
Strengths: Defense (pass - 2nd, run - 1st); Rushing Offense (2nd)
Weaknesses: Passing (12th); Kick Return Score (9th)
The Baltimore Ravens appear to be the hip upset pick in this season's playoffs. They are in fact the
proverbial "team that no one wants to face" because they are so impressive on the line of scrimmage.
The Ravens are 1st among the playoff teams in run defense and 2nd in rushing offense. Add to that the
second best pass defense among playoff teams and you have a team that scares everyone. Given all of those
gaudy stats, it is amazing that the Ravens could do no better than 10-6 (which would be 9-7 if not for one
of the most outrageous referee blunders in recent memory). The main reason that the Ravens have not fared better
is their quarterback situation. Anthony Wright has only marginally improved on the weak early season
effort by injured rookie Kyle Boller. The Ravens are the one team in the AFC that can absolutely not
afford to fall behind early.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 4
Strengths: Passing (1st); Turnover Margin (3rd)
Weaknesses: Rushing Offense (12th); Pass Defense (9th)
Like the Colts and Patriots, the Titans are a team that relies heavily on the passing game. Tennessee
is first among playoff teams with a 100.3 team passer rating, but last among playoff teams in rushing offense
with an anemic 3.3 yards per carry. As usual, Steve McNair is battling injuries heading into the playoffs,
but that is nothing new for the man that is the antithesis of Manny Ramirez. Tennessee's defense has been
very mediocre. They have been decent against the run (3.8 ypc) but have not defended the pass very well this
season.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 8
Strengths: Rushing (2nd); Field Goal Percentage (4th)
Weaknesses: Passing (10th); Kick Return Score (11th); Turnover Margin (10th)
Clinton Portis, who has been battling an ankle sprain, will be the key for Denver this postseason.
Because of Portis' ability to dominate a game, the Broncos have a chance to reach Houston
despite the fact that they will have to win three road games to get there. The Chiefs would surely agree -
Portis rushed for 218 yards against them three weeks ago. The Broncos passing game is certainly better
with a healthy Jake Plummer behind center. Plummer's QB Rating is 91.2 though Denver's team QB rating
is only 75.6 thanks to the work of Danny Kanell and Steve Beuerlein. Denver's defense is hardly
spectacular from a statistical perspective, but they have played well at times including a great
performance at Indianapolis two weeks ago. Denver's turnover margin is a bit deceptive since many of
the giveaways were the result of Kanell and Beurlein interceptions. However, Denver is last in the AFC
in takeaways with only 20, less than half of what the Patriots and Ravens have produced.
NFC
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 5
Strengths: Rushing Offense (2nd); Kick Return Score (3rd)
Weaknesses: Defense (pass - 10th, Run - 9th)
Despite being the #1 seed in the NFC, the Eagles rank only 6th statistically among the 12 playoff teams,
more evidence that the AFC is now the dominant conference. After a slow start, Donovan McNabb has come
on strong and the Eagles have a solid ground game with Staley, Westbrook and Buckhalter. The Eagle
defense, however, has been very weak against both the run and the pass. They have surrendered 398 or more
yards in three of their last six games. The Eagles are lucky to have backed into the home field advantage
throughout the NFC Playoffs. The way their defense is playing, they will need every advantage they can get.
The Eagles are also lucky that they are in the NFC where the competition is significantly weaker. One
could argue that the six best teams in this year's playoffs are all in the AFC.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 6
Strengths: Field Goal Percentage (2nd)
Weaknesses: Rushing Offense (10th); Run Defense (11th); Kick Return Score (12th)
In Superbowl XXXVI, the Patriots took advantage of the fact that the Rams were a soft team. The
Patriots played very physical and the Rams did not react well to the hard hitting style. Amazingly, the 2003 Rams
appear to be even softer than the team that mowed down the NFC two years ago. In sharp contrast to
the Ravens, the Rams have been dominated at the line of scrimmage. They are 10th among playoff teams
in rushing and 11th in run defense. Quite simply, the Rams are an easy team to push around, especially
away from home. The Rams loss last week at Detroit means that if St. Louis and Philadelphia meet in the
NFC title game, the game would be played in Philly. That would not be good news for the Rams, who are 8-0
at home (and have scored 27 points or more each time) but only 4-4 on the road. Obviously, the Rams
passing attack is potent with speedy Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce (2,677 yards combined), not to mention
Marshall Faulk out of the backfield. Defensively, the Rams have failed to stop the run, which could be
bad news if Ahman Green and the Packers win this weekend and head to St. Louis in round two. Another
major concern for Mike Martz is the Rams kick coverage. St. Louis was third worst in the NFL in opponent
kickoff return average and the worst in the NFL in opponent punt return average.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 18
Strengths: ??
Weaknesses: Passing (9th); Turnover Margin (12th)
The Carolina Panthers rank dead last in my statistical rankings of this year's playoff teams. Interestingly,
they are also the lowest rated playoff team in the BostonSportsHub.com Power Rankings at #18. The Panthers
rated very low in the Power Rankings because of a very small average margin of victory (they outscored
their opponents by an average of only 1.3 points per game) and a weak schedule (4th weakest among all NFL
teams). The Panthers were just 1-3 against playoff teams, including a 24-20 loss to first round opponent
Dallas on November 23rd. The Panthers are very mediocre across the board (6th or 7th in every
category except Passing Offense and Turnover Margin). The Panthers have the worst turnover margin among
playoff teams with a -5.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 2
Strengths: Rushing Offense (1st); Field Goal Percentage (3rd)
Weaknesses: Kick Return Score (8th)
Statistically speaking, the Packers are the highest-rated team in this year's NFL Playoffs, despite
having only the 8th best record at 10-6. The Packers also ranked 2nd in the
BostonSportsHub.com Power Rankings which evaluates teams based on strength of schedule and margin of victory as well as
winning percentage. Offensively, the Packers are in very good shape in the hands of Brett Favre (9 TD,
2 INT in the last three games), Ahman Green (5.3 yards per carry and 15 TD) and Ryan Longwell (23/26 FG).
On the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay has been solid against the pass, but only mediocre against
the run.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 11
Strengths: Kick Return Score (2nd)
Weaknesses: Pass Defense (11th); Field Goal Percentage (12th)
Seattle will likely need three road wins to reach Superbowl XXXVIII and considering that they have won just
two times in eight games away from Seahawk Stadium, the odds are not in their favor. Seattle is a
solid offensive team with an ever-improving Matt Hasselbeck and 1,400 yard rusher Shaun Alexander.
On defense, the Hawks have been torched through the air. Even the Ravens Anthony Wright threw for
300 against the Seattle secondary. Seattle will also be at a disadvantage if they find themselves in
a close game. Seattle kicker Josh Brown converted only 7 of 14 field goals of 40 yards or more.
BostonSportsHub.com Power Ranking: 15
Strengths: Defense (pass - 3rd, run - 2nd)
Weaknesses: Passing Offense (11th); Field Goal Percentage (10th); Turnover Margin (10th)
Once again, Bill Parcells showed why he is arguably the greatest pro football coach in history.
Under Tuna's watchful eye, the Cowboys have excelled on defense (no team in the NFL surrendered fewer
yards than Dallas this season) both against the run and the pass. The 'Boys offense, on the other hand,
leaves much to be desired. Quincy Carter has throw four more interceptions than touchdown passes this
season and leading rusher Troy Hambrick averaged only 3.5 yards per carry (so much for the need to push
Emmitt out of the picture). Still, the Cowboys are a threat to reach the Superbowl because they are
the only team in the NFC that could be considered a great defensive team. Defense and good coaching go a
long way in the playoffs and the Cowboys have plenty of both.
Predictions
(6) Denver over (3) Indianapolis
(4) Baltimore over (5) Tennessee
(6) Dallas over (3) Carolina
(4) Green Bay over (5) Seattle
(1) New England over (3) Indianapolis
(4) Baltimore over (2) Kansas City
(6) Dallas over (1) Philadelphia
(4) Green Bay over (2) St. Louis
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CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES |
(1) New England over (4) Baltimore
(4) Green Bay over (6) Dallas
(AFC) New England 24 (NFC) Green Bay 20