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NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch FINAL PREDICTIONS
Automatic Qualifiers and Virtual Locks (59)
ACC: North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College Maryland, Duke (6) LAST SIX IN 60. Illinois -- The Illini are in the top 30 in the RPI, have 23 wins and finished above .500 in a major conference (a conference that the Committee has been in love with for years). On the down side, Illinois is 4-9 against the RPI Top 50. The good outweighs the bad. 61. Purdue -- The Boliers have a little bit of a weaker NCAA resume than Illinois but 21 wins, an RPI ranking of 44 should be enough in the Big Ten. 62. Georgia Tech -- Tech is only ranked 52nd in the RPI but they have won seven of their last ten games and beat both UNC and BC in the final week of the season. Georgia Tech's biggest risks are a 1-8 road record and the possible automatic bid for NC State. 63. Missouri State -- Missouri State, Drexel and Old Dominion appear to be battling for the last one or two mid-major bids. I would be very surprised if none of the three made it and I would be very surprised if all of the three made it. Of the three, I think Missouri State makes the best case. They beat Wisconsin this year and they play in the Missouri Valley, which is ranked fourth in the RPI conference standings. The Colonial is ranked 12th. On the other hand, they were 0-4 against Creighton and Southern Illinois. 64. Old Dominion -- I think the Colonial will get at least two bids and ODU seems to be the obvious choice over Drexel because they beat them twice this season and finished two games ahead of them in the league standings. Old Dominion also won at Georgetown which may have more clout than Drexel's two wins over Syracuse and Villanova. 65. Kansas State -- It might come down to Kansas State or Arkansas for the Committee. Kansas State has very nice records of 22-11 overall and 10-6 in the tough Big XII but they have not stood up well against the cream of the crop (2-6 against the RPI Top 50). They won at Texas and beat USC. LAST EIGHT OUT 66. Drexel -- Drexel is an interesting case but I don't see them getting ahead of Old Dominion, I also don't see the Colonial getting more bids than the Missouri Valley and I don't see Missouri State, ODU and Drexel all getting in. 67. Arkansas -- The Hogs have become a very interesting case. They have a solid RPI ranking of 35, 21 wins and a 5-4 record against the RPI Top 50 (although four of those five wins came against Vandy and Alabama who are just barely part of the top 50). On the down side, Arkansas finished 7-9 in a very weak SEC West. If I were on the Committee, I would be arguing that Arkansas had a chance to earn their way into the Tournament on Sunday and failed to do so. 68. Texas Tech -- Texas Tech is 5-6 against the RPI Top 50 but I still can't imagine that the Committee will take the Red Raiders over Kansas State. If they do, we know that Bob Knight threatened someone. 69. Air Force -- The Falcons finished the season 0-4 and have been falling like a stone. Their RPI ranking is 29 but a 1-4 record against BYU and UNLV isn't going to cut it. 70. West Virginia -- With an RPI ranking of 57 and a 2-7 mark against the Top 50, the Mountaineers have no chance. 71. Stanford -- Stanford was 3-6 down the stretch and they have a mediocre resume to boot. 72. Florida State -- The Committee has never put two-thirds of a conference in the NCAA Tournament and that is exactly what it would take for Florida State to make it. 73. Akron -- Akron simply did not play anybody. Their only game against a team in the RPI Top 80 was a two point loss to Nevada. Please click on the following link to read about the NCAA Tournament Committee's
Selection Process.
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